Top 100 Hitters: Are These Hitters For Real?

Welcome back to the Top 100 hitters for the rest of the 2024 fantasy baseball season.  As injuries ravage and our statistics stabilize, we are starting to see how the chips should fall.  The Top 100 are really broken down into the top tier of all-stars, a shrinking middle, and guys at the back that are still trying to find their way.  For instance, Colton Cowser has been an early darling for fantasy owners, but his 35% strikeout rate is trying to call into question his long-term viability.  Those questions put an anchor on too much ascension in our rankings.  On the other end of the spectrum, we have a guy who was once a top prospect in Jurickson Profar trying to make a case for relevance in San Diego.  Making his best contact in years, Profar is sneaking into our rankings.  While we have seen this before, it feels a bit more real this time around.  The ebb and flow of our rankings continues this week as we dig through those feisty hitters.  Welcome back to the Top 100 hitters for the rest of the 2024 season.

Rising

• William Contreras – My goodness, what two weeks can do to a player’s outlook. Over the last two-week timeframe, Contreras has totaled 20 runs and RBI combined with a .327 average.  However, that .381 BABIP is likely not going to hold.  Contreras moves up this week as he is staking claim to be a top three catcher in the fantasy game even if a little regression is to come.
• Alec Bohm – Speaking of regression, Alec Bohm has fared even better over the last two weeks with a wRC+ of 279 with 29 runs and RBI.  Sure that .511 BABIP is a bit high and will regress, but we have seen a jump in his walk-rate and hard-hit rate.  Those combined with a noticeably more selective plate approach focused on swinging inside the zone are big steps for Bohm.  Let’s not forget that Bohm was a top draft pick and came to the majors quickly.  In what should be the prime of his career at age 27, we are seeing real growth tied to some luck giving outstanding results.
• Josh Naylor – For a recipe of success, try walking more, striking out less while displaying league average power and sneaky speed. Naylor is atypical as a patient slugger that steals enough bases to be interesting with bottom feeder speed.  He has firmly entrenched himself as the clean-up hitter for the Guardians and provides average or better production across all roto categories.  The consistency and ability to have flown under the radar as he has grown the last year make Naylor a valuable fantasy asset.

Falling

• Mike Trout – This one hurts. One of the greatest players of our generation and arguably all-time, Trout simply cannot stay on the field.  His speed was returning this year as he had already eclipsed his last three seasons’ steal totals combined.  However, we will likely not see him for the next 6-8 weeks.  At this point, fantasy owners need to hold tight or even look at this as a potential buying opportunity if there are over reactions in your league.  I will reiterate, this one hurts.
• Wyatt Langford – For all the pre-season hype, this is the reminder that the typical path for prospects includes an adjustment period. Even the best prospects go through growing pains at the major league level.  So far, all his metrics have simply been league average and we have only seen one homer and one steal.  Remember, uber-prospect Jackson Holliday was already sent down, so the variability is high with these types of hitters.  I do not expect Langford to be sent packing, but he will need to continue to grow before moving into the top 50 hitter many folks thought he should be.

Watching

• Isaac Paredes – Paredes has been operating as the clean-up hitter in Tampa this season and seemingly taking advantage of that role with seven homers, 14 runs, and 17 RBI while boasting a respectable .291 average. That alone makes it feel like he should already be in the Top 100 hitters.  However, the hard hit rate is down this season to 26% and the ball is being put into the air well above league average.  The quality of contact is further concerned with an xBA of .237 and average exit velocity of 86 mph.  The lineup position has helped him pad his metrics and the flyball heavy approach will result in some homers.  However, he will need to show a bit more in terms of true skill change before he makes the cut.
• Randy Arozarena – I do not often put hitters on our Top 100 list in the watching category and never have I listed a hitter in the top 40 in this portion of the column. But leave it to Mr. Arozarena to break that mold.  So far this season, Randy is batting a dreadful .139 with a severe increase in those infield flyballs.  The strikeout rate is also up as he only has four hits over the last two weeks.  At the same time, a .173 BABIP is downright impressive for any hitter and impacts more than just luck, but the psyche of a hitter at the same time.  Arozarena has been a consistent force every season he has been in Tampa and while we are in a rough patch, I do not expect it will continue.  That said, we still need to watch this one closely.