The xFiles: Cooler Heads (Don’t) Prevail

As one of Razzball’s resident advanced stat geeks, I strongly adhere to the principle that sample size matters A LOT when using statistics to evaluate player performance. Fantasy baseball, of course, is a game predicated on statistics and while it would be great to have the luxury of time to better evaluate players and allow for their performance to normalize and level out, we just aren’t afforded that luxury in this game.

Just a few real big league games into the season, we are very much in tiny sample size territory. Despite all the excitement and noise about breakouts, slumps, and torpedo bats, it should be my job to tell you to stay calm, refrain from rushing to judgments—good or bad—and to largely stay the course you charted when you so skillfully drafted your elite, league winning fantasy squad just a couple short weeks ago.

Of course, that cool-headed approach is for much cooler heads than the one affixed atop of my pointy shoulders—and probably yours too! So we’re going to dive right into the stat pile with reckless abandon and form some VERY early conclusions that maybe, just maybe, could improve your chances of winning this season.

If that all seems a bit emotional, if not bordering on manic, well that’s because it is! The fantasy gods wait on no one and we all know the start of the season is largely make or break time in most leagues. Right? Right???

(It really is)

Here are 4 currently struggling hitters who are flashing some interesting underlying statistical indicators that point to better days ahead (and in a couple cases, better than ever!)

Matt Olson, 1B ATL – .182/.379/.318, 0 HR, 1 Run, 2 RBI, 0 SB

Olson, much like the Braves, is off to an abysmal start to the season. However, under the surface, unlike the Braves, he is kind of off to an incredible start. His walk rate is 24% (versus 11.8% career) and his strikeout rate is 17.2% (versus 23.7% career). While we’re only talking about 29 plate appearances, his outside of the zone swing percentage (O-Swing) is 17.6%, down sharply from last season when it was 29.3. He’s swinging less in general and his Whiff rate is nearly half his career rate (6.7% this year vs 11.7% career). What this means is Olson is flashing a much more disciplined approach to start the season, and that’s leading to a higher rate of contact, even though that contact hasn’t materialized to many hits just yet. Of course, it’s worth noting that this change in approach has not resulted in lower levels of contact quality. In fact, Olson’s Exit Velocity and Barrel rates are both through the rough, at 95.6% EV and 29.4% Barrel. Under the surface, Olson looks like a top 5 hitter even though above the surface he has produced like someone closer to bottom 5. I’m aggressively targeting Olson in all of my leagues and while all small sample size caveats obviously apply, this is one of the safer buy lows you can pursue given Olson’s relatively high floor and track record for success. Go kick some tires. Aggressively if you have to!

Christian Yelich, OF MIL – .118/.318/.294, 1 HR, 2 Runs, 3 RBI, 2 SB

Yelich’s bad back has brought pain to more than just the man himself in recent seasons, particularly in 2024 when he missed most of the second half with a disc issue that required surgery in the off-season. Given his age and injury history, I won’t begrudge anyone for being out on him completely as a fantasy asset at this point. However, I do think he presents a strong value proposition right now, especially given his slow start. As I dug deeper into Yelich’s measly 22 plate appearance sample, the main thing I wanted to learn is whether or not he’s at full strength. And by that I mean still flashing strong batted ball data and bat speed. The answer to both remains a resounding “YES”. His EV ranks in the 87th percentile (93.9 MPH to be precise), down a bit from career highs but completely in range of his past 2-3 seasons. His bat speed is also well within range of last season and shows only minimal decline to this point, though that’s probably a small sample size issue more than anything. What’s also encouraging is the fact that he’s running, having already tallied a couple stolen bases. While I won’t bet on him staying healthy all season, I would certainly bet that Yelich goes on a tear in the not too distant future and rewards either patient fantasy managers or those who had the foresight to grab him at a discount when they had the chance. Don’t risk too much, but this is a bet that could pay off handsomely.

Alec Bohm, 1B/3B PHI – .261/.291/.304, 0 HR, 2 Runs, 2 RBI, 0 SB

Bohm is crushing the ball to start the season, with a 97.4 EV and 15.8% Barrel rate. One metric that supports what appears to be improved power is Bohm’s bat speed, which currently sits at a career high 73.5 MPH, compared to 72.2 MPH in 2024 and 72 MPH in 2023. He’s also making more contact, with a 5.6% Whiff rate compared to 9.1% over his career. These are all great signs. I’ve always been a bit higher than the consensus on Bohm, who has struggled a bit with consistency throughout his career and performed so poorly in the second half of last season that many worried he would lose his starting job in Philly this year. That hasn’t happened yet, and hopefully what seems like early gains under the surface will start to materialize sooner than later, thus putting an end to such chatter and hopefully cementing Bohm as a core member of the Phillies, and perhaps your fantasy team, going forward. I’m all in here.

J.J. Bleday, OF ATH – .192/.276/.231, 0 HR, 2 Runs, 1 RBI, 0 SB

Man, all these stat lines look bleak—Bleday’s especially. The former top prospect, turned flop prospect, turned solid pro, rewarded many a fantasy manager last year with his surprise breakout season. While he did nothing truly outstanding, he did enough to gain fantasy relevance and the trust of fantasy managers heading into 2025. Unfortunately, he has done nothing to reward that faith to start the year. Dig a little deeper below the surface though and there’s reason to believe Bleday’s 2024 was more than just smoke and mirrors, and that maybe, just maybe, there’s more value here than meets the eye. The main early sign of improvement he’s shown so far is a dramatically improved contact rate. He’s making significantly more contact both outside of the strike zone and in it, leading to a markedly improved Whiff rate of 4.8%, down and improved from 10.6% in 2024. That’s resulted in a very low—and very elite—strikeout rate of 6.9% in yes, a very small 29 plate appearance sample. Bleday hit .243 last season with a slightly below average strikeout rate (19.5%). A below average BABIP is partly to blame for that low average, but with better luck, an improved contact rate, and what appears to be a better supporting cast, Bleday could easily hit .270 or better with 20+ HR and Run and RBI totals in the 80 range. Those are really strong returns from a player who may have gone undrafted in your league.