As we progress further into the 2023 campaign, continually making player adds, drops and trades in the young season, it’s important to discern the players starting off strong that will end up being legitimate, the players that have started hot that will fade to obscurity, as well as players who have started off slow but should see a positive correction in their stats over the next couple of months:
Isaac Paredes – Rays: Off to a 24/6/30/.275/.352 start for the 1st place, record-setting Tampa Bay Rays. Going into the season, Paredes was an afterthought, as he held a #357 ADP in Yahoo drafts. We knew Paredes had power (20 HR’s in 331 at-bats in 2022), and held the classic Rays positional versatility (1B, 2B, 3B), but there were questions as to Paredes full-time role and where he would play in the field coming into 2023. Flash forward to May 2023, Paredes has been among the many big bats in the Rays lineup, somewhat overshadowed by a resurgent Wander Franco and an MVP-caliber season from Randy Arozarena. As the Rays look to continue to be one of the best lineups in the game, there will without question be plenty of counting stats available for Isaac to accrue. However…looking under the hood at Paredes advanced stats, it’s not all sunshine and optimism.
Aside from the freezing cold Savant page, here are some quick stats that should temper your expectations for Paredes keeping up his hot start ROS: 2.6 Barrel%, .228 xBA (a .47 difference from the BABIP-fueled .275 average), a 27.8 HardHit% (good enough for a bottom 10th percentile in the league). Looking at Paredes’ Run Value chart below, Paredes seems to be performing poorly against fastballs and sliders, but what really stands out to me is that most of his damage against opposing pitchers is on breaking balls, perhaps flat/hanging sweepers, instead of fastballs. If Paredes was killing fastballs, then perhaps I’d feel a bit better about the prospects of keeping up his hot start the rest of the season.
Verdict: Bearish on Paredes keeping up his strong start, he’s a sell for me.
Nolan Gorman – Cardinals: Batting 19/13/39/.302/.391/3, as he’s one of the few things going right for the Cardinals this year. Like Isaac Paredes, Nolan Gorman was also an afterthought in Yahoo drafts in the preseason, as he held a 326 ADP. One of the main reasons for this was the logjam of positional players the Cardinals have, as well as the questions of Gorman’s limited ability on the defensive spectrum. To say Nolan Gorman is an average defensive second baseman is a stretch, and playing time with St. Louis seemed to be bleak, as the Cardinals particularly value defense and the fact that the banning of the shift placed an extra premium on middle infield defense. What a difference eight weeks makes, as Nolan Gorman has made tremendous offensive strides and shows no signs of slowing down:
As we see from Gorman’s red-hot Savant page, Gorman is hitting the ball with authority and hitting the ball often. Some further Nolan Gorman highlights: Gorman is barreling the ball at a 17% clip, his xBA is .281, and his HardHit% is 50%. When you’re hitting the ball like this, we can overlook the nearly 25% K rate.
As we take a look at Gorman’s Run Value chart from the past two years, what excites me the most is Gorman’s ability to hit the fastball (up to a +7 run value in 2023 compared to a -1 run value last year). Nolan has also made marked improvement against offspeed pitches, clearly showing Gorman is advancing as a batter. Drastically improving the K% rate, hard-hit percentage, and walk rates have earned Gorman a top-10 spot on the Razzball Player Rater. While he may not remain a top-10 asset rest of the year, Gorman should easily remain a top-50 batter the rest of the way. If you didn’t scoop him off the wire in April, I’d try and trade for Gorman as his strong start is legitimate and a 35 homer bat from a weak second base position is tremendously valuable.
Verdict: Bullish on Gorman keeping up his strong start, he’s legitimate. Another post-hype breakout!
Trea Turner – Phillies: Trea Turner’s had an uncharacteristically sluggish start to the 2023 campaign, batting 24/4/10/.257/.302/5. Certainly not what we expected after being drafted in the first round. Like many players who have signed for hundreds of millions of dollars, Turner seems to be pressing at the plate. He’s up to a 26.6% strikeout rate (which will be even further inflated by the time this article comes out) after years of his K% rate hovering in the 17-18% range. Crazy stat: Turner has more HRs and RBI in his impressive WBC showing than he does as a Philadelphia Phillie. His sprint speed remains in the 99th percentile, but has only attempted 5 steals, possibly under the direction of Phillies management to not run as much in the colder weather and to not lose an out on the basepaths before Harper and Castellanos have the opportunity to drive him in. If Turner keeps pressing, Phillies manager Rob Thompson will have no other choice but to drop Turner in the lineup, which would cost Turner plenty of at-bats and opportunities to accrue extra counting stats.
The Savant page is cool and Turner’s Run Value chart shows Turner has been useless against fastballs. As I watch Turner, he doesn’t seem to have lost bat speed and being reunited with hitting coach Kevin Long seemingly should have been a net positive for his 2023 campaign. Trea’s also been uncharacteristically sloppy in the field.
Verdict: Trea’s slow start is concerning, but I believe his slow start is due to him trying to live up to his $300M contract and as he doesn’t seem to have lost any physical skills at 29 years old, I think his issues are mental and he needs a string of a few good games for him to build his confidence back. Ultimately, I think we see Trea’s stats correct back to his career rates as he gets back to the first round talent we’ve seen.
Have a great week!
