The Fancy Joe Ryan

Intro

If only Joe Ryan had waited one more week to showcase a big “breakout” game. I have been holding him close to the vest waiting for a few more data points before planting my flag on a post-breakout re-breakout. I was watching him covertly take the next big step before making a big statement. But alas, on Saturday (4/13) he unleashed hell on the Detroit Tigers en route to a 6 IP, 1 ER, 1 BB, 12 K gem with 20 swinging strikes. It hurts because last season I had him everywhere, and though I still liked him, this year in that range I drafted Steele and Bieber everywhere. Oof. Can I get an F in the chat?

Well, I was on the hunt. Just check out my receipts! You validate parking, right? Check out my first message to Grey!

The rest is what you will find in my breakdown below. Is this me advocating for a “buy high” on Ryan? Let’s find out.

“He Went To Driveline”

Maybe I wasn’t paying as close attention as I thought in the preseason. But, the first thing I noticed in his first couple of starts is a bump in his velocity. After game 1, I didn’t think much of it. I assumed it was due to it being the beginning of the season. Over the course of the season, I already knew that he had worn down and velocity ended lower around 91.7 mph in September. The difference though—through his first 3 starts in 2024—Joe Ryan is averaging 93.4 mph on his fastball where last April his fastball averaged 92.7 mph; He has found a way to add a little bit on his fastball to surpass the 93 mph threshold that has led so many pitchers to find better success. And sure enough, Joe Ryan went to Driveline to make some improvements.

Year of the Splitter

That then led me to explore his pitches. And the first thing that stuck out, was his splitter is different this year. As I have pointed out in other articles, the NPB craze has continued to take root here in MLB, with wider adoption of the splitter to counter-act the launch-angle driven hitting trends. It’s no longer a split-change like it was last year (averaging 83.9 mph), he has increased its velocity to 88.4 making it a “power splitter” similar to the pitch thrown by Guasman, Ohtani, and Yamamoto. The grip is slightly more like a traditional splitter versus an offset change and now he throws it just like his fastball. What does that do?

1) It makes it look more like a fastball coming out of his and harder to discern for the hitters, and 2) he’s throwing it harder with a little more late movement keeping it down more consistently than the split-change last year that better compliments his rising fastball. And three starts in, it’s looking like a game changer:

The whiff rate on the new splitter is up to 40.5% from 21.3% in 2023. Because he is using these pitches in concert, there are shared benefits. Last season hitters were able to hit Ryan’s fastball relatively hard with a .457 SLG; but, so far this season with the splitter hiding his fastball better he has yet to allow a HR off it (a problem last year with 19 HR) and has supressed hard contact to the tune of a .222 SLG. Here’s an unconventional K where he used the splitter to set up the fastball:

Joe Ryan, 89mph Splitter (ball) and 93mph Fastball (backwards K), Individual Pitches + Overlay.

Good look at Ryan using a Splitter out of the zone to set up a Fastball backwards K. pic.twitter.com/WH0dplKuuS

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) April 13, 2024

Mechanics

It was that clip that I realized something, I saw exactly how Driveline had changed some of his mechanics. And you can see 3 main components here:

1) His windup is more closed off with his shoulders further back, 2) His leg kick is higher and more closed with his foot pointing back towards the short stop vs third base, 3) He extends his lead foot with more of a stab instead of the sweeping motion before. All in all, this produces more kenetic energy on his release, and thus, he’s able to generate a bit more power coupled with greater extension. His full release to the plate now stands in the 80th percentile amoung MLB starters at 7 ft up from the 6.5 ft he averaged last season. Closer to home plate means less distance the ball has to travel so it feels like it’s getting there faster and less time for batter to react.

Other Pitch Changes

Joe has more clearly defined differences in his slider and sweeper now too. The “hard” slider is now sitting around 86 instead of the 83 from last season and the sweeper is up from 79 to 81. The biggest part of the change is throwing the slider harder and more vertical. The upgraded versions of the fastball, splitter, and slider now makes Joe Ryan more of a power pitcher instead of a finesse pitcher.

Conclusion

With Joe Ryan’s increase in velocity, swing-and-miss improvements to his splitter and slider, and now an above-average extension on his pitches, I believe he is primed for a next-tier breakout this season to take the next step in development to become one of the league’s top pitchers. And with so many of the top pitchers landing on the IL this year, he just might have a chance to finish in the running for the AL Cy Young Award. It’s rare that I would recommend buying high on an already known pitcher during the season; but, it might be worthwhile to kick the tires with the team owner in your league and see if he can be acquired for a reasonable price.