Is there a football game on today? Before the pre-pre-pre-game shows begin, let’s chat some more about fantasy baseball prospects. A few weeks ago we started the conversation, and this week I’d like to finish it before we head into the second half of the minor league previews. Top 100 lists have already started to roll out, keeper rosters are getting trimmed up, and first-year player drafts are just around the corner in dynasty leagues. For a look at the prospects we’ve covered to this point, check out the fantasy prospect indexes. You’ll find links to the organizational previews as well as each team’s top ten. Here’s the index for the American League. Here’s the index for the National League. Here’s my Top 20 2014 signees. Here’s Adrian Rondon after he saw that Top 20. There are many factors to keep in mind when putting together a farm in fantasy. Here are just a few of them…
You down with OFP?
When reading up on prospects, you’ll see OFP or sometimes FV listed with a number. Unfortunately the ‘F’ does not stand for fantasy. OFP = Overall Future Potential and FV stands for Future Value. Both are intended to slap a number on the player’s entire package of tools and in turn place a value on their future as a major leaguer. It uses the same 20-80 scouting scale as the individual tools, so 50 equates to an average MLBer. 60+ are the above average guys and as you climb higher you are projecting bigger and bigger stars. Some sites don’t use the double-digit numbers and instead go 2-8. The single digit grade forces the evaluator to pick one or the other, instead of going with a fringe grade in between two numbers like 45 or 55.
What does this have to do with fantasy? In a shallow league where only a couple of prospects are rostered on each team, you probably shouldn’t be messing with prospects with OFPs under 60. In deep leagues that roster a lot of minor leaguers (like past the T100 types) OFP can serve as a tool to rank your own guys. If I have 15 prospects on my farm, tiering them by OFP gives me a snapshot of their value for trade talks, etc. I find this more helpful than just organizing my farm by position or a T100 list. You can take it a step further, however, by creating a depth chart. Combining your MLB roster with your farm on a depth chart and doing an OFP ranking within each position will give you a really solid feel for your dynasty team’s strengths and weaknesses both now and down the road. I usually keep the positions simple (C/CI/MI/OF/P) since players often change positions and I don’t care to get too specific for prospects who are far away.
ETAs and the fantasy players who loved them…
Everybody wants to know when their prospects will arrive, but the reality is that predicting exact ETAs is like catching squirrels with a hula hoop. Every prospect’s path to the majors is different. To that we add how aggressively their organization promotes, injuries, MLB team needs (see Rougned Odor in 2014), and the financial implications of call-up times. We’re left with some very muddy waters. On the Top 50 list that I’ll publish after the organizational rankings are done, I’ll try to give a more specific ETA (early/mid/late) for each prospect listed. I’ll also do a separate ranking for the players with 2015 ETAs to keep an eye on for this year only.
In fantasy, ETA matters when I factor in my team’s competitive window. If my time is now, I may want to go for higher floor prospects with shorter ETAs. I’m managing my team almost as if it were a redraft. If I’m rebuilding, I might take a chance on some of the lower-level guys with higher ceilings but in turn more risk. A competitive team may see those players as roster cloggers while a rebuilding team sees them as lottery tickets. In a perfect world, a dynasty team has a balance of both types, creating a continuous pipeline that feeds the MLB roster with quality prospects as MLB veterans fade out. Easier said than done of course.
Rankings schmankings
Top 100 lists have started to publish. It’s worth mentioning again that these are usually not fantasy lists, so take them with a grain of salt. In fact, prospect rankings in general are so fluid that you could publish new lists every two months and they would likely change. If I had a dollar for every time I saw people arguing over the internet about a prospect’s ranking who never even makes it to the majors, I would be sitting in a private box at today’s Super Bowl. Go Seabirds!
