Still Early Outfield Skills Changes & Why Corbin Carroll Is Somehow Better Than He Seems

This is probably the last week where I start my article by saying, “hey, it’s still early”. So let me get that out of the way now. “Hey, it’s still early.”

Skill indicators do stabilize ahead of the bottom line numbers we all need on our teams. Stabilization itself is a confusing concept. It doesn’t mean the number is right; it’s just that it’s more of a reflection of true talent than random variation. I could write one sentence and seem as talented as Charles Dickens, but give me a bunch of paragraphs and I regress to this. 

And oh, this is about Fantasy baseball anyway. The simplest way I understand stabilization is that it’s the moment the number I see on the screen is more reflective of a skill or approach change than luck. So I set out to look at outfielders with interesting YoY changes in early-stabilizing skill stats, mostly Whiffs and EVs. The numbers are through Saturday

Corbin Carroll 2004 EV 89.3, Whiff% 20.4 . 2025 EV 94.6, Whiff% 31%

OK, it’s not tough to figure out what’s going on here. The DBacks superstar has clearly amped up his swing. And hey, we can actually measure that now! Carroll’s bat speed has increased from an already good 73.7 mph (78th percentile) to 75.1 (90th). Logic says if you swing harder, you will increase power at the cost of contact. And yes, that has happened as you can see by the pop in Carroll’s Whiff%, which has led his K% to rise from 19% in 2024 to 25% this season. But he’s making such great contact now, he’s actually seen his Avg. pop from .231 to .341. His Launch Angle Sweet Sweet% (“a batted-ball event with a launch angle between eight and 32 degrees”) has soared from 27.8% (3rd percentile) to 36.5% (64th). No one really drafted Carroll for power, but he has 7 homers already and a 19% Barrel% to go with 4 steals and 97th percentile sprint speed.

This is really an incredible combo of skills here. You normally would cringe to see an increased K%, and I doubt he can maintain this AVG., though his xBA is .322 now, so Statcast considers this all pretty real. But even if he can hit .280, it might now come with 30 homers, 40 steals, and a boatload of runs if he stays healthy (he has 19 in 21 games). Obviously there’s nothing actionable here in non-trading leagues, but I’d buy high if anyone wants to cash in on his hot start. In a redraft right here, right now,  I would pick him as high as 4th.

George Springer 2024 EV 87.5, Whiff% 25.3, 2025 EV 93.5, Whiff% 36.4%

It looks very similar to Carroll on the surface. “Hit ball Hard”, swing and miss more. Except there are a couple of key differences. Springer’s bat speed has actually decreased YoY from 71.9 to 70.5. Also, he’s 35 and at the tail end of an excellent career that looked like it was crawling into the finish. Springer hit just .220 last season, though his 19 homers and 16 steals kept him Fantasy relevant and kind of a trendy mid-round draft target for some.

Like Carroll, he has increased both his K% (25.8%, which would mark a career high) and his Avg. (.351, with a still excellent .293 xBA). He has 7 Barrels, but just 2 homers and 2 steals. Owners have to love that batting average, but the counting stats, which also include 8 runs and 11 RBI’s are fine but not fantastic. 

Springer’s big gain is in LA Sweet Spot%, from 29.2% (6th percentile) to 41.5 (84th percentile). So it’s kind of interesting as he’s making less frequent but way better contact. If Springer can maintain these gains, the power almost has to follow, though the batting average should dip a fair amount. Also, he’s down to 47th percentile sprint speed and on a team that does not run at a particularly high rate, so the steals probably dip to 10ish.

There’s also a question of whether he can stay on the field. He played 154 games in 2023 and 144 last year, his two highest totals since all the way back to 2016. If Springer plays 150, he’s maybe a 20-10 guy with .250-.280 Avg in a decent lineup, so there’s some value in this package

Teoscar Hernandez 2024 EV 90.6, 2025 EV 83.9

The Dodgers outfielder has a kind of fearsome presence when he steps to the plate, and early on, he has done just fine in our Fantasy realm. He’s hitting .250 with 5 homers and 17 RBI’s. He bats either in the middle of or behind the Dodgers HOF contingent. What’s not to love here? Well, to quote Bill and Ted, some strange things are afoot at the Circle K. Teoscar has slowed his Bat Speed from 73.2 in 2024 to 71.7 this season, which has seemed to beget a massive plunge in EV. In fact he has the highest drop YoY for qualified hitters. That 2024 ranks as the 8th worst among 276 qualified hitters, putting him near contact over power outfielders like Sal Frelick, Jake McCarthy, and Jacob Young. He also has a low 30.5% HardHit% and 8.5% Barrel%, down from 47% and 13.8% for his career. He’s a bit fortunate to have the 5 homers, as that comes on 5 Barrels.

So, one would expect a commensurate rise in contact with this new, more careful approach? Well, he has reduced his K% to 22.5% this season vs. a career rate of 29.2%. That looks completely unsustainable however, as his contact skills have barely improved. His Statcast page sums it up best.

He still has an alarming 16% SwStr% that is more consistent with his career K%. He’s chasing more and swinging in the zone less. His big gain is in his O-Contact% of 52.2%, from a career 43%. Making contact outside the zone helps, I guess, but it clearly has resulted in his degraded batted ball profile. 

Teoscar looks like a reverse Corbin Carroll. The slower swing and EV ideally would come with increased contact. Instead, everything looks worse. Obviously, no one should cut Teoscar in even the shallowest of leagues. And who knows how this plays out, maybe the skills regress “up” to the production. In Teoscar’s case, that would involve more K’s but better contact. He’s a career 91.3 EV guy. It could go the other way, though. The K’s almost have to go up, but we don’t know if the power will. So maybe he’s a sell-high candidate in trade leagues for anyone willing to part with a big piece of the best lineup in MLB. Tough call on that one, of course.

Ian Happ 2024 EV 90.8, Whiff% 27.9%, 2025 EV 87.5, Whiff% 19%

Happ is a super solid 5 category contributor over the course of his career, and he does have 18 runs leading off for a potent Cubs lineup. But that’s all you’re getting so far as he has just 2 homers, 1 steal with a meh .247 Avg. 

Unlike Teoscar, Happ’s approach change has resulted in the expected impact. With a very slight reduction in Bat Speed from 72.4 to 72, he has dropped his Whiff% shown above,  and seen his K% dip from 26.8% over his career to 17.9% this season, while maintaining an excellent 12.5% BB% that’s right near career norms. 

This all might work out OK for Happ, Fwiw, Statcast says he’s unlucky so far as he has an xBA of .271 and xSLG of .424 (vs. 351 actual). If the power’s down and he ends up in the 10-15 homer range, you really would like more steals than the 13 he had last year. Optimistically, he gets there with a .270 average and lots of runs. 

Harrison Bader 2024 LA 11.9, 2025 LA 22.6

OK, I know I looked at Bader recently, but I wanted to check out a deep league only guy, and he’s still somewhat interesting. He plays pretty regularly for the Twins, albeit near the bottom of the order, and he has 3 homers, 5 barrels (13.2% Barrel%), and .259 Avg, which can play. Bader has increased his Bat Speed from 71.2 to 72.4, and as the big LA move shows, he’s getting the ball in the air at a much greater clip.

Is that a good thing? Well, his EV has dipped from 87.2 to 85.7, and his Whiff% has popped from 25.8% to 29.9%. That has led to a kind of ghastly 28.1% K% vs. 3.5% BB%. So we’re talking more soft flies, more K’s, and not much on the basepaths so far with just 1 steal. I like the near-everyday playing time in a deep league, and he should still put up a double-double in homers and steals. Plus, his excellent glove helps maintain the PT. But he often bats 9th, and it’s thus far a pretty lousy Twins lineup. He remains a bench bat at best, even in deep leagues.