Sasaki Bomb Or Roki Dokie

The Fastball:

Let’s start with the obvious: Roki Sasaki’s fastball is ridiculous. Full stop. I’m talking triple-digit velocities that make even the most seasoned hitters blink twice. In the 2023 WBC, he averaged 100.5 mph with his four-seamer, and get this—90% of his fastballs in that tournament were over 100 mph. That’s not just elite; that’s historic. To put it in perspective, no MLB starter has ever thrown that many pitches over 100 mph in a single game (until Skenes). Sasaki did it across multiple outings. Yeah, you read that right.

But it’s not just about the speed. Sasaki’s fastball also boasts impressive movement. We’re talking 17 inches of induced vertical break (IVB) and 12 inches of arm-side run. For the uninitiated, IVB is what gives the pitch that “rising” effect, making it seem like the ball is defying gravity as it approaches the plate. Pair that with the lateral movement, and you’ve got a pitch that’s as deceptive as it is fast. In MLB terms, this kind of movement profile is rarely combined with his pitch mix. Jeff Hoffman, the reliever, comes to mind as someone with similar characteristics, but very few starters can match Sasaki.

Sasaki’s fastball in 2023 was basically deGrom if not slightly better due to more run, last year it dipped in velocity down to 96.8 because of some mechanic compensation. Given full health and a return to 2023 form, it’s an elite pitch with the potential to dominate MLB lineups that has been clocked up to 102.5 mph (deGrom’s top speed was 102.2). Have you ever wondered what if Jacob deGrom had started pitching when he was younger? Welp, here you go. Oh, and he has an elite splitter…

The Splitter:

I have been telling you all for the last 3 years that the launch angle-driven hitting philosophy in modern MLB is hyper-vulnerable to the splitter (hello, Kevin Gausman), and that elite pitchers in Japan (where the splitter is king) will all find success WHEN and IF they come over. Ohtani: check, Senga: check, Yamamoto: check, Imanaga: check. I have begged you to draft all of them, and they have all succeeded. Wearing my Bernie Sanders mask, “I am once again asking you to draft an elite Japanese pitcher.” Now is Sasaki’s time.

If the fastball is Sasaki’s bread, then the splitter is his butter—and boy, is it smooth. Rated an 80 on the 20-80 scouting scale, this pitch is a nightmare for hitters. Thrown in the high 80s to low 90s, it features a ridiculous 18 inches of vertical drop (relative to his fastball). That’s not just good; that’s elite. In NPB, his splitter generated a 57.1% whiff rate in 2024, which is miles ahead of the MLB average for splitters (34.5%).

What’s fascinating is how Sasaki uses it. Unlike many MLB pitchers who reserve their splitters for chase situations, Sasaki throws his in the zone 57% of the time. That means he’s not just using it to get batters to swing at bad pitches; he’s daring them to hit it when it’s right there. And more often than not, they can’t. It’s a pitch that functions both as a strike-getter and a swing-and-miss monster, a versatility that’s rare in today’s game.

Rated an 80-grade pitch, Sasaki’s splitter is his signature weapon and might very well be the best splitter we have EVER seen. Why is this such a big deal? Senga’s ghost fork is the most unique pitch in the world and that had a 50% whiff rate during his final season in Japan, whereas Sasaki’s splitter boasted a 57.1% whiff rate in 2024. “Hold my beer” does not say enough. It’s a game-changer that could terrorize the average MLB hitter. Think about MLB rosters right now… The Dodgers are the only thing close to “Team USA” from the WBC (whom he beat) and Sasaki will be pitching FOR THEM, everyone else has role players mixed with some stars, sometimes only 1 or 2.

The Slider:

Rounding out Sasaki’s arsenal is his slider, which, while not as dominant as his fastball or splitter, is still a solid offering. Thrown in the mid-80s, it achieved a 40+% whiff rate in NPB, which is nothing to sneeze at. In the WBC, it averaged 88 mph with tight horizontal break, giving it more of a cutter-like appearance. Compared to the elite sliders in MLB—like those of Shohei Ohtani or Paul Skenes—Sasaki’s version might need a bit more refinement. But as a third pitch, it’s more than serviceable and adds another layer to his repertoire.

Roki Sasaki’s slider compares similarly to Paul Skenes’ 88 mph slider despite possessing a few inches less break and just ahead of Ohtani’s velocity with less break. It still needs some perfecting for consistency but has the potential to grow into an elite offering that tunnels well with his fastball.

The Challenges Ahead

Now, let’s not get too carried away. Transitioning from NPB to MLB is no walk in the park, and Sasaki will face his share of challenges. For one, his command, while good, isn’t yet elite. A carbon copy of Yamamoto he is not. Senga however, has had similar command in his career and was able to navigate MLB lineups by leveraging their aggressiveness against his splitter.

Additionally, there are concerns about his durability following a 2024 where he saw a dip in velocity and some mechanical retraining in addition to a history of arm soreness and an oblique injury. Pitchers who throw as hard as Sasaki often walk a fine line with injuries, so that’s something to keep an eye on. The bright side is he very mindful of these concerns and has prioritized cleaning up his mechanics for longevity.

The Bottom Line

Despite the challenges, Roki Sasaki’s pitcher profile is undeniably elite. His fastball and splitter are among the best in the world, and his slider provides a solid foundation for growth. So, what’s the fantasy takeaway? Make no mistake, as far as raw stuff goes, he’s the best. The potential is easily top 5 material.

At an average ADP right now of around pick 100 Sasaki could be ROBBERY as a 2nd or 3rd pitcher on your roster. If he produces anything like Senga’s first season across 120+ innings it will be well worth the price. Not only have I been telling you to draft these pitchers, but I have been projecting them accurately too! See the ratios for Yamamoto. I have Roki Sasaki projected for 120 IP (mindful of his shoulder) with a 12.4 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9 that could result in ratios around 2.85 ERA/1.04 WHIP with a chance for more if he stays healthy in the 6-man rotation. Does that look pretty good? Yes, it does. And that’s me dialing it back! Yamamoto was the easiest to peg because of how consistent he was, and I nailed it. Well, Sasaki bends the rules and nearly broke my math… but not nearly as much as he’s going to break hitters’ confidence. I’m taking this shot all day!

If you want more Coolwhip to top off your baseball experience, fantasy or otherwise, you can follow me on Twitter/X/Bluesky: @CoolwhipRB.