RCL Update: The Sutherland Loophole

We are now so close Opening Day that I can taste it.  Cold beer, processed meat, and mustard, it doesn’t get much better than that.  This time next week we’ll all be in a full on panic over why our first round pick hasn’t hit a HR in the first two games and how we can possibly be in last place with THIS team.  We’ll talk you off that ledge when the time comes.  However, this week I want to go over a few last tidbits before you dive into you RCL career.  I have one last note on the draft as well as a loophole you should know about and take advantage of.  These are the last couple of things I couldn’t cram into my other posts but I think are too important to just let go.  I’ll also be sharing the newest week’s worth of draft data with you.  We’ve had so many drafts the past week and we’re up to a total of 57 drafted leagues and counting.  Come check out the latest and greatest numbers as you prepare for the final draft weekend before shizz gets real.  We have RCL drafts going off all during the final weekend.  You can even create a last minute league like VinWins and I and draft over a cup o’ joe and a bowl of Cap’n Crunch at 7 AM EST Saturday morning.  Doesn’t that sound like fun?  So go on, go create a league and/or fill one that needs filling.  This post will still be here when you get back and then we can talk about your upcoming draft.

My last bit of draft day advice is especially relevant if you are in fact drafting this weekend.  It all goes back to maximizing ABs and I’m not sure it’s something many people look out for.  When you’re drafting far out from Opening Day stashing guys that might stumble into saves thanks to an injury or a prospect that might surprise and break camp with a club is great.  However, when there’s 1-2 days until real baseball, there’s no value to be gained in stashing those guys.  Instead, you should be looking to maximize those ABs early and often.  This year there are three games on Opening Day.  Do yourself a favor and take a look at those 6 teams and make a mental list of who may or may not be drafted from those 8 teams and who might make a good target with one of you final picks of the draft.  Jedd Gyorko, and John Jaso are likely Opening Day starters with a 290ish ADP that could pay early returns.  Justin Smoak might end up with the Opening Day start against the righty Chris Archer as well.  These picks are all droppable immediately after games start Sunday opening up those spots for your rolling bench we talked about last week.  It may not seem like much, but those 1 or 2 extra runs on Opening Day could mean all the difference come October.

That does it for draft notes from me.  We went over how to handle pitchers, to draft power when it doubt on with a hitter, and use draft day to either stash some potential value or set yourself up to maximize ABs ASAP.

Next up, I want to chat a little about loopholes.  No, we’re not going to talk about the loophole that gets you out of that speeding ticket you got last Tuesday.  Instead, we will be talking about the much less exciting 24 hour free agent waiver wire loophole that ESPN has. The ESPN rule is that if a player is on a roster for 24 hours then when they are released they are placed on waivers. However if they are on a roster for 23 hours 59 minutes and then released they become free agents and are able to immediately he added again. This loophole comes in especially handy when stashing prospects or potential saves candidates. It is also most helpful when a  day with an early start time follows a day with night start times. When that happens you can drop your stashed player, add someone for the day games and then pick your stashed player right back up after lineup lock.  I often use this tactic to stash a Rockies hitter a day or so before they get back to Coors and everyone is on high alert.  I also attempted to use this in order to stash Carlos Correa when I felt it was close to time of his call-up.  I say attempted because using this loophole comes with an obvious risk.  That risk is prospect poachers.  After you’ve done this a couple days in a row your leaguemates will catch on and be waiting, lurking in the shadows to strike.  It’s a risk/reward call but one that I feel like everyone should know about.

DRAFT TRENDS

As I mentioned earlier we now have 57 leagues worth of draft data to sort through.  This is fantastic as it helps even out those outliers and get us a nice sample size.  I’m excited for next week, once drafts are all completed, when I’ll really dive into the numbers and give you all kinds of good data about how us RCLers drafted.  In the meantime, instead of just posting an ADP chart as I have before, I decided to do a little compare/contrast between ADP and our in house rankings.  I present to you ADP vs. Grey vs. Rudy:

It looks like Grey’s rankings have more of an impact on the ADP, but that is to be expected as those are the rankings that are pimped most on the site.  Rudy definitely has the heart of the Kershaw truthers out there.  Meanwhile, he draws the stink eye from everyone that has drafted Josh Donaldson 5th overall.  Anthony Rizzo isn’t being drafted high enough according to either rankings source, while people can’t wait to get their hands on Carlos Correa.  Mookie Betts has slipped into the first round in two RCL drafts so far this year much to the delight of our ‘perts who both have him ranked aggressively.  I still think taking him 8th overall is a smidge of a reach, but that’s not to say I don’t love the kid.  The room is completely split on Just Dong Martinez.  His ADP is falling almost exactly between Grey’s and Rudy’s ranking.  I am more inclined to lean towards Grey’s ranking here, but I’ve been a J.D. fan from the jump.

WE DON’T NEED NO STINKIN’ NFBC ADP

We have RCL ADP!  In lieu of an ADP chart, I will simply link you to the ADP spreadsheet so you can examine it yourself.  I’ve made it a habit to have this sheet up during drafts to help me gauge who I can wait on and who I should grab now.  You can also use it to sanity check things a bit post draft.  Enjoy!

RCL ADP SPREADSHEET

RECENT TRENDS

Here we have a chart showing some of the changes in ADP from the week of 3/12 – 3/19 and this past week (ending on the 27th).  The bigger the DIFF number the higher the player is currently being drafted and vice versa.

Closer hopefuls abound atop the recent ADP chart.  Colome appears to be the favorite in Tampa Bay and rumblings have Andrew Bailey looking sharp this spring as well.  In addition, new found closer Jeremy Jeffress has streaked up draft boards since Will Smith will no longer be Da Butta.  Fellow Brewer Chris Carter is being drafted a little earlier for those looking for power late in the draft.  J-FOH does a post on Danny Valencia and look what happens.  We’ll call it the FOH-effect, or maybe just FOH-fect  Has a nice ring to it.  Speaking of effects, holy DeShizznit!  Delino is going earlier and earlier these days.  He went #82 overall in my RCL draft just the other day.  He’s got the mustache karma.

Flipping to the other end of the chart we see Boxberger and all that is sad.  Apparently RCLers heeded my words on Soler and his ADP has fallen back to where it was the first week of drafts.  After that we have a bunch of old fellas getting passed over for the young guns.  Does one of Melky Cabrera, Victor Martinez, Brian McCann, Jayson Werth or Ryan Zimmerman have a zombino season left in them?  One young gun that is not being picked up is Byron Buxton.  I professed my love for him last post, however, the prospect of hitting 9th and some spring struggles aren’t inspiring.  I passed over him myself at #196 the other day.  That was more need based, but I could see why his draft price is falling.  If you don’t agree than by all means, go draft a team and take all the Byron Buxton!

TO JOIN A LEAGUE

Click the LINK in the ‘League Link’ column (see below grid) and enter the PASSWORD at ESPN. Emails are there for some leagues, but you shouldn’t need to email anyone.  You can join as many leagues as you like.

TO START A LEAGUE

Please create a league in ESPN based on the league rules reference above. Step by step: Hit Create. Then Create ESPN Custom (middle option), Name League, Change to 12 Teams, Restriction Type: None, Open to All Users, Access: change to Private, create Password, leave as Roto and Snake, Make Draft Date and Time, Create. From Default settings all you have to do is change to TWO DL SLOTS and 180 Starts by pitchers. So, you go to ROSTERS and Click “Edit Roster Settings.” There, change to 2 DL Slots and 180 Starts (the counter will change to 20.0 per slot). Then SUBMIT Roster Settings. Finally, Create Your League! (Important Note: Make sure league is viewable to public but requiring a password to avoid non-Razzballers joining.) When that’s finished, click here. You will be permissioned shortly so you can add your league info to the Google Doc (the below grid cannot be edited from this page). On that Google Doc, you will need to enter your name, league link, password and please UPDATE the number of openings as your league fills up. That’s it. Oh, and don’t use your bank account password. (Here’s a video Jay made to help some noobs.  Is noobs spelled with zeroes or oh’s?  Hmm, that might make me a noob at spelling noob.)  You can start as many leagues as you like.  If you start less than ten leagues, again someone could mock you.

Want to be Matt’s Twitter pal?  That’s kinda creepy, but you can follow him here: @MattTruss.