When I think of slumber, Sleeping Beauty always comes to mind. Serenity. Soothing sounds. Then the logos of Simmons, Sealy, and Serta start bouncing around in my head like the old-school DVD screensavers. When I shake my head to get rid of it, the voice of Larry from Sit ‘n Sleep echoes like Chinese water torture in the vast emptiness of my cranial cavity, “Or your mattress is FREEEEEE!!!” This has been the journey for us fantasy nerds with Luis Robert Jr.
After Robert defected from Cuba, he became one of the most revered prospects in the game. As a result, the Chicago White Sox gave him a $26 million signing bonus, the second-largest ever for an amateur.
The early minor league career was fraught with injuries (knee, ankle, and thumb), but then he put up the dreamy 2019 minor league season: 32 home runs, 108 runs, 92 RBI, and 36 stolen bases in 551 plate appearances. The slash was .328/.376/.624 with a 5.1% walk rate, 23.4% strikeout rate, .296 ISO, and .383 BABIP.
When Robert made it to the big club, he won a Gold Glove and finished second in the AL Rookie of the Year voting during his first season. Then the nightmares started.
In 2021, Robert tore his right hip flexor, limiting him to 296 plate appearances.
In 2022, suffered a wrist injury after getting hit by a pitch. He racked up 401 plate appearances.
2023 was magical despite dealing with hamstring and calf issues. Robert hit 38 home runs, scored 90, drove in 80, and stole 20 bases in 595 plate appearances. He had a 5% walk rate, 28.9% strikeout rate, .278 ISO, and .314 BABIP. The slash was .264/.319/.426.
Back to the regularly scheduled programming of Nightmare on 35th Street.
Last season, Robert once again injured his hip, resulting in only 425 plate appearances.
So far this season, Robert has been dealing, playing in 38 of 42 games and accruing 157 plate appearances. While he has five home runs, 19 runs, 16 RBI, and 16 stolen bases, the slash is only .179/.284/.313.
In NFBC leagues, he’s 100% rostered and started in 86%. On Fantrax, Robert is rostered on 97% of teams. In ESPN leagues, though, he’s rostered on only 28% of teams and was dropped in 7.3% of leagues over the last week. What the hell is going on over at ESPN?
Anyways, the reason why I wrote up Robert was because a few at Razzball asked about dropping Robert.
Let’s dig in.
For starters, the BABIP is only .232. He has a career .323 BABIP, so he’s not going to continue being unlucky all season.
The strikeout rate is 30.6%, but the walk rate is 12.7%. Luis Robert Jr. was trending up in strikeouts over the last few seasons, so the 30% mark isn’t out of the ordinary. That number could come down to the 28% range, but he was at 33.2% last season. The walk rate seems to be the real outlier. There were times in the minors when the walk rate was above 10%, but those were in small sample sizes. Robert has been in the 5% range for most of his MLB career, so I think that number comes way down.
The Statcast numbers look fine. The average exit velocity is 89.8 mph while the maxEV is 115.8 mph. The launch angle is 17.9 degrees, well above the career average of 14.1. The barrel rate of 12.4% is slightly above the career average. The hard hit rate of 42.7% is also where it’s usually been. The bat speed has been amazing at 75.5 mph, good for the 93rd percentile.
Looking at the batted ball data, the ground ball rate is slightly up while the line drive rate is down. The HR/FB is fine at 14.3%. The numbers that stand out are the pull rate and infield fly ball rate. Robert is pulling the ball 49.4% of the time. That number has often been in the low-to-mid 30% range. The infield fly ball rate of 22.9% is well above the 10% career average.
Robert is chasing outside the zone at a career-low 28.7% of the time. He’s swinging only 49.8% of the time, a career-low in MLB. The swinging strike rate has always been high, but it’s at 15% so far this season, below the 17.5% career average.
How to interpret the data?
Luis Robert Jr. is being patient, which is a good thing. With the White Sox not possessing a Murderer’s Row on offense, it doesn’t behoove opposing pitchers to challenge him much. Looking at the pitch zone chart, Robert has seen a whopping 472 of 607 total pitches in the low-and-outside zone. As noted above, the chase rate is at a career-low, so Robert is laying off many of those pitches. Once again. A good thing.
So, he’s waiting for pitches middle-in, and has been hammering mistakes over the plate. With his crazy fast bat speed, he’s turning on those, but he’s also just missing or getting jammed on quite a few, which likely explains the elevated infield fly ball rate.
And herein lies the biggest issue. For as long as he remains a White Sox, he likely won’t be challenged much. He’s going to continue seeing a heavy diet of low-and-away pitches with the occasional pitch to bust him inside. Those mistake pitches will be few and far between. The main worry is that Robert gets frustrated and starts becoming impatient.
If the status quo remains, the home runs may be muted, but as long as he stays patient, the walks and stolen bases could continue being plentiful. He’s still in the 86th percentile for sprint speed.
There’s also the chance that he gets traded to a better environment surrounded by dangerous hitters. In that scenario, he would likely see more challenge pitches and start blasting balls into the stands.
Regardless, I wouldn’t be dropping Luis Robert Jr. and, if he’s available, I’d definitely scoop him up. There is just too much upside here….at least until he gets hurt again.
