The most famous carpenter in all of history is Jesus. Some may argue that he never built any buildings. That may or may not be true. We just don’t know. That said, he basically layed the foundation for a religion that has existed for thousands of years. Whether you’re religious or not, the fact that millions celebrate his birthday and know his name is testament enough. For those who cannot relate, it’s akin to someone getting millions of likes and retweets two thousand years after their death. Yeah, it’s like that so pay some respect. One of the most important events in the life of Jesus was his death and subsequent resurrection. Matt Carpenter died from a baseball perspective three years ago, but he has risen in 2022 and is doing something that could be greater than the advent of Christianity! Hyperbole alert! Fine, maybe not on that scale but it’s been historic. Normally, I break down a player in this piece to decipher if one should buy or sell. While that information will be illuminated, this will be more of an homage to what Carpenter has built so far.
Carpenter is 36 years old, 6′ 4″, 210 pounds, and bats from the left side. He was selected in the 13th round of the 2008 draft by the St. Louis Cardinals, where he played 11 seasons. From 2015 to 2018, he slashed .260/.376/.497 with 108 home runs, 549 hits, 384 runs scored, and 302 RBI.
Then the decline happened. In 2019, he hit .226 with 15 home runs in 416 plate appearances then hit .186 and .169 in the following two seasons in 140 and 207 plate appearances respectively. The Cardinals let him go then Carpenter signed a minor league contract with the Texas Rangers. He was released once again and the New York Yankees swooped in to give him a shot. Little did they know that it would be the Yankees that would be receiving a jolt more powerful than lightning thrown down from Zeus.
In 97 plate appearances this season, Carpenter is slashing .354/.469/.911 with a .557 ISO and 13 home runs.
Did I stutter mother f****r?
.354/.469/.911 with a .557 ISO and 13 home runs.
The sample size has been small with 97 plate appearances in 31 games. If I filter the query as such, then this is THE GREATEST 100 plate appearance stretch in THE HISTORY of the game. Like in forever ever. But what about Barry Bonds and Sammy Sosa? Shoutout to @RedsFanATL on Twitter who pointed out the errors of my ways. In 31 games, Sosa and Bonds had stretches with 24 and 23 home runs but in 139 and 140 plate appearances. Still, it’s an impressive stretch.
Matt Carpenter is going to regress. There are no ifs ands or buts about it. For shits and giggles, though, let’s dig into the numbers to shed more light on the situation.
The walk rate is 13.4%. Nice. He has never had a walk rate below 10% in his career. The strikeout rate is 24.7%. Over the last two seasons, that number was 30.9% and 28.4%. His career mark is 20.6% but towards the latter years in St. Louis, it ticked up to the 25% range.
.557 ISO! L. O. L. His career mark is .193. He’s been over .200 just four seasons. The BABIP is .357, which is fueling the .354 batting average. His career BABIP is .310 and has been below .300 since 2017.
The ground ball rate is at 17%, the first time under 20%. His career average is 33%. Correspondingly, the fly ball rate is 58.5%, the second time it’s been over 50%. He’s pulling the ball a career-high 57.1%, the second time over 50%. This seems optimal with the short porch in right field at Yankees Stadium. The launch angle is 24.6 degrees, a career-high, but it’s been over 20 degrees in three prior seasons.
Matt Carpenter has always had a good batter’s eye, and the chase rate of 21.8% is in line with the career average. The swinging strike rate is 8.9%. The last two seasons, it was 10.1% and 12.2%. He began his career with a number in the 5% range, but that steadily increased to 8% at the height of his Cardinals career.
Looking at the splits and, wowzers, they are juicy. He’s crushing righties to the tune of a .333/.455/.833 slash with a .500 ISO. L. O. L. The strikeout rate is only 20.9%. Against lefties? While the strikeout rate is 33.3%, he’s slashing .400/..500/.1.080 with a .680 ISO. LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLO. Remember, small sample size of 67 plate appearances against righties and 30 against lefties but still. In his career, the strikeout rate has been 21.6% against lefties with a .249/.346/.425 slash and a .175 ISO.
Matt Carpenter has been batting all throughout the batting order, from leadoff to ninth to third to sixth. Whatever. The Yankees lineup is potent and he brings some much-needed balance to a righty-heavy lineup. The short porch helps. The lineup helps. He will get the congregation to sing Hallelujah more than a few times. That said, this recent heater is one that even Jesus would have a hard time replicating.
