One Man’s Trash: Send in the Wallner

Back in the biblical day, the Philistines had a mountain of a man, Goliath, who challenged the Israelites to single combat. He was massive, with accounts describing him from 6’9″ to 9’9″. The midget and guy on shrooms really widened the range of outcomes there. At the border between North and South Korea, both sides send their tallest soldiers to make their forces look more formidable. In baseball, it was often the smallest and fastest that manned the leadoff spot in the batting order. Those days are the Old Testament of MLB, as getting on base – regardless of race, color, size, sexiness, or speed – has become more important for many teams. The Yankees are thinking of putting their catcher, Austin Wells, in the leadoff spot this season. The Rays will likely have their first baseman, Yandy Diaz, bat first. The Phillies used to have Kyle Schwarber up top while the Dodgers have Shohei Ohtani leading things off, who is massive, gets on base, steals bases, hits homers, likes dogs, and just strikes fear into opposing pitchers on a nightly basis. He is the Dodgers’ Goliath. Ain’t no sling shot taking him down. Out in Minnesota, we may have another Goliath-type situation with Matt Wallner currently slated to bat lead off.

Wallner is massive at 6’4″ and 220 pounds. He’s 27 years old and bats from the left side. The Twins selected him with the 39th overall pick in the 2019 MLB draft.

Throughout his minor league career, the power was always evident, but so was the swing and miss, often having a strikeout rate above 30%. He did have a discerning eye, though, as the walk rate was 8% his first year in the minors, then continued to uptick until it was in the teens when he made it to the upper levels.

In 2022, Wallner played 128 games in Triple-A, accrued 571 plate appearances, and hit 27 home runs with 90 runs, 95 RBI, and nine stolen bases. The slash was .277/.412/.541 with a 17% walk rate, 29.8% strikeout rate and .264 ISO.

The following season, he appeared in 76 MLB games, racking up 254 plate appearances. He hit 14 home runs with a .249/.370/.507 slash, an 11% walk rate, 31.5% strikeout rate and .258 ISO. Last season, in 261 plate appearances, the slash was .259/.372/.523 with a 9.2% walk rate, 36.4% strikeout rate and .264 ISO.

Wallner has batted leadoff all spring, and he’s hit six home runs! But, but, but….

He’s terrible against left-handed pitching, batting .144 in 108 career plate appearances. Against right-handed pitching in his career, Wallner is hitting .277 in 472 plate appearances. And therein lies the issue. In daily leagues, he’s an easy manage, but in weekly leagues, it’s a different story.

Wallner does have outfield eligibility, unlike say a Joc Pederson, so that allows for more roster flexibility. He is also being drafted as the 262nd overall player in NFBC drafts since the start of March, so the price is more than palatable.

Rudy has Wallner projected for 502 plate appearances with 20 home runs, but I think there’s upside for more. Wallner has the sixth-fastest bat speed at 77.3 mph. The 116.8 mph max exit velocity was 12th in MLB last season.

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