I used to live my life a quarter mile at a time, pressing the Nos button whenever I could. It was a glorious time but filled with many aches and pains. Lots of ideas bursting into flames. So much shame with no one to blame but my stupid brain. That said, without pushing the envelope from time to time, I would’ve never elevated from the plains and experienced what lies above the clouds that make it rain. Josh Rojas of the Arizona Diamondbacks has skyrocketed into space over the past few weeks with his play. That’s not just Nos. NASAos perhaps? Since July 1, the slash has been .415/.478/.659 with a .244 ISO. Daayamm. He’s been the number eight player on the Razzball Player Rater and was the most added player in ESPN leagues with a 21.2% increase. Does this Rojas ship have enough fuel to continue its journey or will there be a Roberto Duran-esque “No Mas, No Mas” decline in the immediate future?
Rojas is 28 years old, 6’1″, 207 pounds, and bats from the left side. He was drafted by the Houston Astros in the 26th round of the 2017 MLB draft. In 2019, Rojas was traded to the Arizona Diamondbacks.
Throughout his minor league career, the plate discipline was always excellent, with a walk rate above 10% and strikeout rate in the mid-to-high teens. He showed off his wheels, stealing double-digit bases in four seasons with a high of 26. He showed a little pop with 10 and 12 home runs.
He made his MLB debut in 2019. In 157 plate appearances, he posted a Welcome to the Show-esque .217/.312/.312 slash with a .094 ISO. The walk rate was 11.5% but the strikeout rate spiked to 26.1%. In 2021, he got a full plate of playing time with 550 plate appearances. He slashed .264/.341/.411 with a .147 ISO, 10.5% walk rate, and 24.9% strikeout rate. That ain’t bad, yo.
So far this season, the slash is .282/.346/.422 with a .141 ISO, 9% walk rate, and 20.5% strikeout rate. Let’s dig in to see if the recent heater portends more goodness.
The first thing that obviously jumps out is the BABIP, which is at .340. In 2021, that number was .345 but it was .295 his rookie season. There could be some regression but over 500 plate appearances with an elevated BABIP could indicate that it’s more than just luck. He does have some wheels so that may account for some of it.
Looking at the batted ball profile, he’s utilizing more of the field equally now. The pull rate was in the 37 to 38% range but is now down to 33%. He’s going oppo 29.3% of the time. I like to see that mature approach to go along with the good plate discipline.
The thing that stood out to me, though, was the decrease in ground balls. He used to pound it into Mr. and Mrs. Gophers neighborhood around 50% of the time. This season? Only 38.9%. The Statcast numbers show that the launch angle is at 13.6 degrees, a career-high. That number was 10.3, 5.4, and 8.4 over the last three seasons.
The plate discipline numbers are pretty juicy. The chase rate is 24.9%, which would put him in the top 20 if he qualified. He’s never been above 30% in his career. The swinging strike rate is 8.5% while the contact rates are 85.5% in the zone and 80.6% in general.
Josh Rojas was slated to be the opening day starter at third base, but he suffered an oblique injury and so missed all of April. This is how his season has gone, broken down by month:
| MONTH | AVG | OBP | SLG | BB% | K% | ISO | BABIP |
| MAY | .294 | .383 | .456 | 13.6 | 22.2 | .162 | .347 |
| JUNE | .216 | .260 | .299 | 4.8 | 20 | .082 | .263 |
| JULY | .415 | .478 | .659 | 10.4 | 18.8 | .244 | .516 |
A chart is worth a thousand words.
This heater is definitely unsustainable but that doesn’t mean Rojas is No Mas. He’s a mature and patient hitter and has a little pop with some speed. Steamer has him projected for six home runs and six stolen bases the rest of the way. That ain’t bad, yo. He’s also been batting toward the top of the lineup.
Here are some things to consider, though. He does have some split issues. Against left-handed pitching, the strikeout is 28.8% while it’s 17.3% against righties. While the batting average has been good against both handedness, almost all of his power comes against righties (.167 ISO vs. .071). In addition, the ISO is .218 on the road compared to .084 at home.
Josh Rojas isn’t a league winner but he has a place on rosters, especially considering the multi-position eligibility. Just keep expectations in check.
