I traded through the dot com and housing bubbles, so I know that things never go straight up and it’s never different this time. The ride up is usually a magnificent one, though, with rampant speculation and drool-inducing euphoria. But things always turn, as roller coasters do not click and clat upwards forever. There is a point where the upside-down U takes shape and the precipitous decline begins. This is when the buy-the-dip crowd latches onto hope and buys every freaking dip, but hope is not a strategy! The puzzles are always morphing when new information and variables are introduced. If stock “investors” would inject some fantasy baseball into them, then they’d be gazillionaires. DISCLAIMER: This is not investment advice. It is purely for informational purposes written by some guy in his mom’s basement. With that out of the way, fantasy baseballers have excellent risk management and stop losses. Granted, sometimes they overtrade but, more often than not, they are quick to cut a player if they don’t produce for a week or so. You know what the funny thing about stock trading is? Most look to sell when a position goes their way while many look to buy when a position goes against them. That’s the opposite of what should be done. Fantasy baseballers execute this well, for the most part. When a player is hot, they clutch onto them like a newborn baby. When a player cools off, they toss them to the trash. Now, there is always a time to sell high and a time to buy low, but only when certain reasons are presented to the matrix, and usually when there’s capitulation. Tarik Skubal has been trash lately, after starting the year Paris Hilton Hot. As a result, he’s been dropped in 6.8% of ESPN leagues. Is this capitulation and are there reasons to buy, or is this another example of hope being a strategy?
Skubal is 25 years old, 6’3″, 240 pounds, and throws from the left side. He was drafted by the Tigers in the ninth round of the 2018 MLB draft.
Throughout his minor league career, he had a K/9 over 10 in every season with a high of 17.43 in Double-A. The walk rate steadily increased over the years but he always did a marvelous job of keeping the ball in the yard. Once he got to The Show, Skubal was still able to strike out batters but giving up the long ball became a problem. He allowed over 2 HR/9 in each of his first two MLB seasons and the FIP was above 5 in both.
Looking at this season’s numbers, things look great. The K/9 is 9.14, the BB/9 is 2.44, and the HR/9 is a paltry 0.81. The FIP is 3.1. Unfortunately, it’s been a tale of two halves in the first half of the season. So it’s been a tale of quarters? Heads! Tails!
In his first 11 starts, Skubal posted a 9.59 K/9, 1.37 BB/9, 0.41 HR/9, and 2.08 FIP. He pitched at least five innings in every start except the opener, with four games going seven innings.
In his five most recent starts, though, the K/9 was 7.83, BB/9 was 5.48, HR/9 was 1.96, and FIP was 6.03. He went at least five innings in only one of those starts.
Let’s dig in to see if we can unearth anything.
The most obvious numbers are the BABIP, LOB%, and HR/FB. The BABIP was .362 over the last five starts, so Skubal has experienced some bad luck. He also stranded only 56.8% of runners, after posting a strand rate of 73.1% in the first 11 starts. The career LOB% is 75%. The HR/FB went from 5% to 20.8%.
Looking at the batted ball data, batters were hitting fewer fly balls in the five most recent starts but more of the fly balls were sent to the seats. The pull rate increased from 34.3% to 39.2%. Things that make you go hmmm.
The pitch type and frequency hasn’t changed all season so nothing fundamentally has changed from that perspective.
I’m all about the batted ball data, so what do I see? The swinging strike rate decreased one percent but he’s still able to miss bats. Skubal has thrown more first pitch strikes recently but batters have been more patient, swinging at two percent fewer pitches.
The fastball and sliders were positively valued pitches in the first 11 starts. Over the last five starts, both pitches have sported a negative value.
Skubal is obviously off. Is it a mechanical thing or a mental thing? Possibly both. There’s also the possibility that he is tipping pitches. Batters are being more patient and waiting for a mistake. The confluence of factors has made for one ugly, ugly stretch.
I have no desire of buying the dip until I see a bounce. His next two starts are against the White Sox and Royals. Chicago is 13th in strikeouts and 10th in ISO against left-handed pitching. Kansas City is 29th in strikeouts and 15th in ISO. If he shows signs of righting the ship, then I have no problems dabbling in because he does have upside. That said, I’m in no rush to dabble.
