One Man’s Trash: McKinstry Combo Meal

I’m an old. I grew up when you couldn’t talk on the phone and be on the internet at the same time. But I’m not that much of an old to have partaken in a Burger Chef meal. I was a McDonald’s kid when the stores still counted the number of people served on the sign outside. Anyways, the Happy Meal was my first introduction into the land of combo meals, and what a glorious concept it was. Except it was Burger Chef that is widely credited with the first combo meal with the introduction of the Fun Meal in 1973. At least that’s what the internet says, and the internet never lies. Zach McKinstry of the Detroit Tigers has been gaining notoriety in the fantasy streets due to his combo meals. The burger is the 16 steals, the fries are the eight home runs, the drink is the .273/.353/.451 slash and the packaged fruit is the excellent plate discipline. And of course, the favorite part of any combo meal is the toy, and that is the multi-eligibility. Let’s dig in.

Zach McKinstry is 30 years old, 6′, 180 pounds, and bats from the right side. He was selected in the 33rd round of the 2016 MLB draft by the Los Angeles Dodgers. He remained in the organization until 2022, when he was traded to the Chicago Cubs, then to the Detroit Tigers, where he’s played in the majors the last three seasons.

Throughout his minor league career, there wasn’t much there, as the power and speed were negligible. In 2019, a pulse was identified, as McKinstry hit 12 home runs with eight home runs in 384 Double-A plate appearances. The walk rate was 9%, strikeout rate was 19.3% and the ISO was .176 while slashing .279/.352/.455. Whoa, that’s eerily similar to what he’s slashing this season.

His first MLB action came in 2021 with the Dodgers. I’m not counting the seven plate appearances in 2020. McKinstry slashed .215/.263/.405 in 172 plate appearances with seven home runs and a stolen base. The walk rate was 5.8%, strikeout rate was 29.1% and the ISO was .190.

As a member of the Tigers, Zach McKinstry received 518 plate appearances and produced nine home runs and 16 stolen bases. The walk rate was 8.5%, strikeout rate was 21.8% and ISO was .121. In 325 plate appearances last season, he hit four home runs with 16 stolen bases. The walk rate was 7.4%, strikeout rate was 21.2% and the ISO was .121. Gotta give him props for the consistency.

In 349 plate appearances this season, the walk rate is 10.3%, strikeout rate is 20.6% and the ISO is .178.

The first thing that jumps off is the .329 BABIP. In his three prior MLB seasons, that number was .262, .284, and .265. Regression will likely happen, but let’s see if there’s been a fundamental shift in approach.

The line drive rate has increased every season, from 18.3% to 21.8% to 24.9% and now 29.2%. The fly ball rate is at 33.9%, though. That number was over 40% the last two seasons. The HR/FB rate of 10% is much higher than the 4.1% and 5.9% numbers the last two seasons. He is pulling the ball more – 43.5% after being in the mid-to-high 30% range.

In terms of plate discipline, most of the numbers have remained the same. The only differences are that he’s swinging slightly less while the chase rate has plummeted three to four percent.

I like many of those changes, as it seems to indicate more patience and maturity at the plate.

Here is where my extreme hesitancy comes in 3…2….1…..

The average exit velocity is 85.8 mph – sixth percentile!

The barrel rate is only 6.3% while the hard hit rate is 32.1% – 15th percentile.

The bat speed of 67.6 mph is in the fifth percentile.

The possible 2B, 3B, SS, and OF eligibility, depending on the league, is nice, but McKinstry is usually batting sixth or lower in the lineup (with the occassional spot in third). That, coupled with the likely regression and very poor advanced bat numbers, I can’t get behind McKinstry.