Grey told you to buy Harrison Bader last week. Listen to Grey and emulate him. It’s been a good strategy for me over the years. When I first became a reader of Razzball, Saves Ain’t Got No Face became a mantra and way of life. Not only did it help me navigate the relief pitcher market but I’d go to the club and the success rate exploded exponentially. When I first started writing for Razzball, I had no voice. I wasn’t a professional writer and there was much apprehension. Then I just emulated Grey. I think it’s worked out okay because I haven’t gotten fired yet and the editors still ask me to write pieces. See? I don’t just write bullshit. I live what I write. Alright, back to Bader. I was scrolling through the ESPN add/drops and he was added in 12.4% of leagues, but he’s still only rostered by 16.9% of owners. I wanted to dig in a little closer on my HarriSON.
Bader is 26 years old, 6′ 0″, 210 pounds, and bats from the right side. He was selected by the Cardinals in the third round of the 2015 MLB draft.
He quickly rose through the ranks of the Cardinals minor league system, showcasing a power/speed combination. In the 2016 Double-A season, he went 9/15 with a 6.6% walk rate, 19.3% strikeout rate. 204 ISO, and .301 batting average. He got promoted to Triple-A the following season and put up 20/15 with a 7.1% walk rate, 24.6% strikeout rate, .186 ISO, and .283 batting average. The BABIP was over .340 in both of those seasons, so plenty of good fortune.
In his first MLB season, he went 12/15 in 417 plate appearances and had a 7.3% walk rate, 29.3% strikeout rate, .158 ISO, and .264 batting average. The BABIP was .358. The following season, he went 12/11 in 406 plate appearances. The strikeout rate remained elevated at 28.8% but the walk rate spiked to 11.3%. The ISO was .161 but the batting average plummeted to .205 as the BABIP cratered to .268.
So, the power and speed are legit. He’s going to strike out a lot and the batting average is dependent on a high BABIP. An increase in walk rate is always an encouraging thing to see as it shows a good understanding of the strike zone and patience.
Now, in 2021, an interesting thing has developed. The strikeout rate is only 16.7%. Granted, it’s only been 42 plate appearances but it’s something I wanted to dig in further. In addition, the batting average is .243 despite a .214 BABIP.
Let’s dig in.
The launch angle and barrel rate are within career norms. Nothing out of the ordinary in regards to ground ball and fly ball rates. He is hitting more line drives, though. He’s pulling the ball 54.8% of the time, though. He’s normally in the 42% range. Hmmmm.
He’s swinging at way more pitches inside the zone but the contact rate has come down. He is making better contact outside the zone and the chase rate has remained the same. So has the swinging strike rate.
It’s the swinging strike rate that piqued my interest. Since entering the majors, the swinging strike rate has been 10%. That gave me some optimism that he could improve upon his strikeout rate as he had done with his walk rate.
Well, out of the top 30 players in K%, 12 had a number below 13%. Mike Trout is in that group, so yipee! But then there are guys like Justin Upton and Yoan Moncada.
Yeah, I’m not buying this 16.7% strikeout rate but it’s something I’m going to keep a really close eye on. If the trend persists, then I’m going to feel prettay, prettay good.
So, where do we stand?
It sucks that Bader is buried down in the lineup, so that’s a negative. The power and speed are 2 Legit 2 Quit though. He’s batting .243 with a .214 BABIP. Good fortune could come his way and there have been plenty of instances in which he’s maintained a high BABIP. I do think there’s a real chance of a breakout here, especiallly if he gets some luck and the strikeout improvement is real. Worst case scenario is you get a 15/10 type player rest of season with a bad average. That’s not so bad. TREASURE
