Matt Carpenter, 2016 Fantasy Baseball

Unlike the first base position that I previously reviewed, the keystone is much more in line with the MLB-norm as far as “spread” is concerned- where qualified second basemen averaged a spread of .056 in 2015. And although this position is typically less sexy than me with my shirt off in the winter, it has a lot of solid players in 2016. I am here to show you whose value rises and falls when shifting to an OBP league and will also identify those targets and sleepers that you can get in the mid-to-later rounds.

At last, the position you all have been waiting for… SECOND BASEMEN!

(Keep in mind, the format is 12-team 5×5 OBP)

The Risers:

PLAYER	TEAM	AB	R	HR	RBI	SB	BB	AVG	OBP	SPREAD
Matt Carpenter	STL	574	101	28	84	4	81	0.272	0.365	0.093
Ben Zobrist	KC/OAK	467	76	13	56	3	62	0.276	0.359	0.083
Logan Forsythe	TB	540	69	17	68	9	55	0.281	0.359	0.078
Jace Peterson	ATL	528	55	6	52	12	56	0.239	0.314	0.075
Chase Utley	LAD/PHI	373	37	8	39	4	32	0.212	0.286	0.074
Danny Espinosa	WSH	367	59	13	37	5	33	0.24	0.311	0.071
Brian Dozier	MIN	628	101	28	77	12	61	0.236	0.307	0.071
Jason Kipnis	CLE	565	86	9	52	12	57	0.303	0.372	0.069
Brock Holt	BOS	454	56	2	45	8	46	0.280	0.349	0.069
Ryan Goins	TOR	376	52	5	45	2	39	0.250	0.318	0.068
Cesar Hernandez	PHI	405	57	1	35	19	40	0.272	0.339	0.067
Joe Panik	SF	382	59	8	37	3	38	0.312	0.378	0.066
Dustin Pedroia	BOS	381	46	12	42	2	38	0.291	0.356	0.065
Addison Russell	CHC	475	60	13	54	4	42	0.242	0.307	0.065
Neil Walker	PIT	543	69	16	71	4	44	0.269	0.328	0.059

Brian Dozier (5^th Round, OBP Value= 4th)

Over the last two years, Brian Dozier has averaged 106 Rs (!!), 26 HRs, 74 RBIs, 16 SBs, and… a .239 AVG. In other words… if Dozier were a woman, she would have all of the qualities you look for, but lacked a but in the boob department. And as your league shifts from AVG to OBP as a category, Dozier all the sudden gives you some BBs to play with. What also makes Dozier great is that you pretty much know he is going to be a monster in the first half of the season. Before you laugh at my “monster” description of Brian freaking Dozier, take a look at his last two years:

First Half 2015: 67 Rs, 19 HR, 50 RBI, 9 SB, .328 OBP

First Half 2014: 69 Rs, 18 HR, 45 RBI, 16 SB, .340 OBP

If you just went six to midnight looking at those numbers, it probably means you haven’t been boned before by the atrocious second half that follows each of those years. And if your league isn’t familiar with Dozier’s second half shenanigans, he should definitely be even higher on your draft board, as someone is sure to fall for the jig and give their left nut up in a trade offer at ASB. Even if you are in a league where it might be tough to sell him, Dozier remains a top-four option at 2B and is in the same tier as Robinson Cano. Take your 25 bombs, 15 SBs and .330 OBP and cash it in for a 4th rounder. Thank me later.

The Fallers:

PLAYER	TEAM	AB	R	HR	RBI	SB	BB	AVG	OBP	SPREAD
Omar Infante	KC	440	39	2	44	2	9	0.22	0.234	0.014
Dee Gordon	MIA	615	88	4	46	58	25	0.333	0.359	0.026
Jonathan Schoop	BAL	305	34	15	39	2	9	0.279	0.306	0.027
Brandon Phillips	CIN	588	69	12	70	23	27	0.294	0.328	0.034
Chris Owings	ARI	515	59	4	43	16	26	0.227	0.264	0.037
Jose Altuve	HOU	638	86	15	66	38	33	0.313	0.353	0.040
Daniel Murphy	NYM	499	56	14	73	2	31	0.281	0.322	0.041
Howie Kendrick	LAD	464	64	9	54	6	27	0.295	0.336	0.041
Carlos Sanchez	CHW	389	40	5	31	2	19	0.224	0.268	0.044
Johnny Giavotella	LAA	453	51	4	49	2	32	0.272	0.318	0.046
Ian Kinsler	DET	624	94	11	73	10	43	0.296	0.342	0.046
Eric Sogard	OAK	372	40	1	37	6	23	0.247	0.294	0.047
Robinson Cano	SEA	624	82	21	79	2	43	0.287	0.334	0.047
Jedd Gyorko	SD	421	34	16	57	0	27	0.247	0.297	0.050
Rougned Odor	TEX	426	54	16	61	6	23	0.261	0.316	0.055

Dee Gordon (2^nd Round, OBP Value= 4^th)

At .359, Dee Gordon has a relatively high OBP at face value. But that number sure as hell isn’t due to his ability to take walks- as this speedster learned how to run before he walked. In fact, his walk rate is so low that any variation in his batting average (like a drop to .300) might have you staring square in the eye of a 2nd round draft pick with an OBP in the .320s. And when I mean his walk percentage is low… I mean it’s low low low low (Flo Rida voice). In 653 PA last year, Dee took a staggering 25 BBs, putting his walk percentage in the grocery store beer percentile of 3.8%.

Unless you are desperate for snagging speed early, I would lay off of Dee in your draft or at least wait until the late 3^rd where he has some value. But let’s be honest with ourselves…he aint gonna last that long as some asshole is sure to take him with a late 2^nd.

The Target:

Ben Zobrist (12^th Round, OBP Value= 9^th )

As if winning a World Series for my city wasn’t enough, Ben Zobrist forever cemented himself as KC’s most beloved one hit wonder by naming his child after the Royals. Really, this guy was on such a high after that World Series win that he thought he was Kanye West and named his kid freaking Blaise Royal Zobrist. And for that, I am forever grateful. Which is why I have designating one paragraph in his honor to let you know why the Zobes is a great value pick or trade target in your OBP league.

Like many of you, I am a sucker for drafting young players with high ceilings. But sometimes it’s smart to go the route of safety in fantasy baseball. And if you want consistent, you want Zobrist. Over the last 3 years, Zorilla has hit .275, .272, and .276 with respective OBPs of .354, .354, and .359. Although he is no longer is a threat on the base-paths, Zobrist has huge upside in the Rs category depending on where he bats in the stacked Cubs lineup. If Zobrist ends up hitting #2 (which he has done plenty of in the past), you might have yourself a second baseman that is a virtual lock for a .355 OBP and 100+ Rs, something that almost no 2nd baseman can provide. And it may only cost you an 11th round pick…

The Sleeper:

Logan Forsythe (18^th Round, OBP Value= 15^th)

Let me tell you about Logan Forsythe, Tampa Bay Rays starting second baseman. I only have known about him for a few hours now, but after googling (and creeping a bit) I can tell you he has a rockin’ beard, a hot wife, and put up some very sneaky-good stats that I did not know about in 2015. In fact, in his first full season, Forsythe ranked top 5 for second basemen in OBP (at .359). And he did that with also sprinkling in a little bit of pop and some speed to go along with it. Let me take this opportunity to give you a player comparison that might surprise you:

Player A: 71 R, 11 HR, 61 RBI, 15 SB, .321 OBP

Player B: 94 R, 11 HR, 73 RBI, 10 SB, .342 OBP

Player C: 69 R, 17 HR, 68 RBI, 9 SB, .359 OBP

Player A is Kolten Wong, Player B is Ian Kinsler, and player C is the red-bearded wonder- Logan Forsythe. And with Wong and Kinsler going nearly 10-12 rounds ahead, get Forsythe on your radar right this minute. Aint nobody got time to pay double digit rounds for 15 more runs or five more swipes.