MLB Risers and Fallers: What in the Puk Happened to A.J.?

The 2024 Major League Baseball season is one week old, which means we finally have numbers that count to start evaluating our fantasy squads. With only 26 weeks in the fantasy baseball season, even one week of information should help guide us to decisions about who deserves a valuable roster spot on our teams and who deserves the bench or deserves to be cut.

With the small sample size caveat pushed to the side for this exercise, most players are 6-7 games into the 2024 regular season, so this piece will look at some MLB fantasy assets that have seen their fantasy value rise and fall through the first week of Major League Baseball games.

Fantasy Baseball Risers

Anthony Volpe (SS), New York Yankees

Juan Soto and Oswaldo Cabrera have gotten the offensive headlines after the Yankees’ great start, but what Anthony Volpe is doing from the sixth and seventh spot in the order should not be overlooked. In fact, Volpe was so good in New York’s first five games that he moved into the fifth spot in the lineup, right after the power lineup of Torres-Judge-Soto-Rizzo (nevermind that he went 0-for-5, it’s the thought that counts).

The biggest development for Volpe in the early going is that his strikeout rate is down four percentage points through the first six games. He also has a walk rate over 15%, jumping back up around the elite numbers he had in the minor leagues before breaking through last year. That’s allowed his contact rate to jump to 87.5% (73% last year) and his swinging strike to tumble to just 4% (12% last season). Will it all continue for 5.5 more months? His track record in the minors says it might just be sustainable.

Michael Conforto (OF), San Francisco Giants

In the last three seasons, Michael Conforto has played in 125, 0, and 125 games. Altogether, that means he has missed more than 200 games due to injury over that span and he has hit .235/.339/.384 when he did play. Now finally healthy and with a secure job in San Franciso, Conforto is hoping to beat out 2019 and have a career year in his age-31 season. So far, so good with a .370/.414/.778 line with three homers, nine RBI, and eight runs.

Michael Conforto pulled only 11 barrels in 2023. He already has 4 in 2024. Timing and health may be back

— Rob DiPietro (@deadpullhitter) April 3, 2024

It certainly help that the Giants are positioning Conforto to be successful in their lineup. They have decided to bat him fourth behind on-base machine Jung Hoo Lee and slugger Jorge Soler. He also now has Matt Chapman hitting behind him for protection, but Conforto has been most of the damage himself this season.

His stellar 2019 year saw him have a 40% flyball rate and just a 36% ground ball rate. The next four years, he never had higher than 38% flyball rate and lower than a 42% ground ball rate. Those numbers have flipped again this year (50% flyball rate, 31% groundball rate), meaning he is getting the lift and power back behind his batted balls.

Garrett Crochet (SP), Chicago White Sox

Garrett Crochet was drafted at the height of COVID, never played an inning in the minor leagues, missed the 2022 season due to injuries, and had not started one Major League game before last week. It’s no wonder he was not really on anyone’s fantasy radar heading into the season. But after two starts where he has pitched 13 innings, produced a 16:k strikeout-to-walk ratio, and has a 1.38 ERA, he has everyone’s attention now. What exactly is he doing that has led to his success this year (after just 72 innings as a reliever the past four years) and is it sustainable?

First of all, the speeds on his three pitches are ridiculous. He is averaging 97 on his fastball, 92 on his cutter, and 84 on his slider. One would think as he builds up the stamina to try and go 6-7 innings each start that he would hold back on some pitches, but he was nearly touching 100 in his first start and was hitting corners like he was vintage Randy Johnson. It’s certainly possible this comes back to bite him when the innings pile up later in the year, but for now, he is the pitching value of the young season and someone who should be on everyone’s roster.

Fantasy Baseball Fallers

A.J. Puk (SP), Miami Marlins

Converted reliever A.J. Puk got some trendy sleeper buzz toward the end of Spring Training after moving to the starter role and generally dominating during the exhibition period. His 1.32 ERA, 1.17 ERA, and 23 strikeouts in 13 innings caused his ADP to spike to pick 255 in March (it was 430 from January to February). But now with two starts under his belt, perhaps we were all way too aggressive in assuming a reliever with zero career starts and an ERA near 4.00 could be a fantasy asset.

Some good news today with A.J. Puk. A lot of you have wanted to pick up other players off waivers and have had a hard time finding room. Well, A.J. Puk’s got your back!

— Razzball (@Razzball) April 3, 2024

After allowing four more runs (he gave up four on March 29) to the Angels on Wednesday, Puk’s ERA sits at 9.00 to go along with a 2.83 WHIP. The problem has really been the location of his pitches. He can’t put his fastball or his off-speed pitches where he wants them, and it’s led to nine walks in two starts. He was cheap enough that you can feel comfortable cutting him in normal mix leagues, as his stuff is not good enough to overcome the wildness.

Nolan Jones (OF), Colorado Rockies

It’s probably foolish to put a Rockies players on the Fallers list before they have had a chance to play a game a Coors Field, but Nolan Jones has looked so bad for a player who was a top-60 picks in drafts before the season started. Like another player below, Jones has 11 strikeouts in 28 plate appearances and has only mustered a .074 batting average this season. His .292 OPS is lower than 66 different players’ batting average. He is one of the Rockies in the bottom five in hitter WAR this season, but Jones was the only drafted to be a fantasy star.

His BABIP is certainly low (.154), but when you hit 54% ground balls and 7% line drives, that’s what tends to happen. Through one week, his barrel rate (7.7%) is half what it was in 2023 (15.7%). However, I’m not giving up, because Coors awaits this weekend, and that’s the park that can cure many ailments with a player’s bat. Give him time, but keep an eye on these struggles as well.

Zack Gelof (2B), Oakland A’s

Zack Gelof got a hit on Wednesday, raising his average up to .148, with a paltry .392 OPS to go along with it. Gelof, who many thought was a late sleeper to approach 20/20 this year, has been abysmal out of the gate. He has 11 strikeouts in 28 plate appearances, and the K has become an epidemic in Oakland this season. He does have a steal, but with just one run scored and no RBI through seven games, this is far from what fantasy managers were looking for.

He is bound to improve, because some of his key indicators are way out of line and would mean he is one of the worst hitters in the majors. That’s simply not true. His .181 wOBA is bottom-25 among all batters and he has a negative WAR at the plate this year. But once the walk rate (3%) starts climbing, and the strikeout rate (38%) starts falling, his contact rate will improve, giving more of the all-fields hitting ability he had in his rookie campaign.