Another week down and another weekend to enjoy life, which obviously includes reading this post about up-and-coming dynasty players. This week I want to talk about Michael Busch of the Chicago Cubs.
A left-handed hitter, Busch played for North Carolina from 2017-2019 and was considered one of the best offensive players in the 2019 draft. The concern scouts had about him, however, was where would he play in the field. Primarily a first baseman, he wasn’t exactly a Gold Glover at the position.
With the universal DH now in use, his glove wouldn’t be a concern. But it was a real concern in 2019 and his lack of a real defensive position led to him falling to the 31st pick of the first round when the Dodgers selected him.
If you don’t follow college baseball, Busch still shouldn’t have snuck on anyone who plays in dynasty leagues as he has been considered a top 100 prospect since 2021, when he was ranked as the 87th best prospect by Baseball America and 91st by Baseball Prospectus. Ahead of last season, he was ranked 54th by Baseball America and MLB Pipeline and 59th by Baseball Prospectus and entered this year ranked 43rd, 51st, and 71st by those three ranking services.
Let’s dive deeper into why Busch is an up-and-coming dynasty player.
Statistics
| YEAR | LEVEL | G | R | HR | RBI | SB | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017-19 | NCAA | 184 | 169 | 32 | 142 | 14 | .282 | .429 | .492 |
| 2019-23 | Minors | 357 | 292 | 79 | 267 | 10 | .283 | .390 | .529 |
| 2023 | Dodgers | 27 | 9 | 2 | 7 | 1 | .167 | .247 | .292 |
| 2024 | Cubs | 36 | 18 | 7 | 19 | 0 | .256 | .309 | .488 |
In 2022 and 2023, Michael Busch found his footing in the minors. Between Double-A and Triple-A in 2022, Busch smashed 32 homers and drove in 108 runs while slashing .274/.365/.516. Last year he earned the Pacific Coast League MVP award as he slashed .323/.431/.618 with 27 homers and 90 RBI in only 98 games. His slugging percentage and 1.049 OPS both ranked second in all of the minors.
Last season was one in which Busch rode the shuttle back and forth between Los Angeles and Oklahoma City. He made his major league debut with the Dodgers on April 25 but was sent back down on May 8 with a .211/.348/.211 slash line.
Busch would be back with the Dodgers in June, appearing in eight games. But this stint with LA wouldn’t be any better than his first stint as he slashed .192/.250/.308 in eight games with a 25% strikeout rate.
After being sent back down and spending all of July and most of August at Oklahoma City, Busch returned to the Dodgers in late August. In six starts and nine games overall, he slashed .130/.192/.391 but did hit his first and second major league home runs.
September was then a lost month for Busch as he appeared in only three games and went 0-for-4 at the plate. After the season, the Dodgers knew there wasn’t really a place on the roster for Busch and traded him (and Yency Almonte) to the Cubs for Jackson Ferris and Zyhir Hope.
The Dodgers’ loss has been the Cubs’ gain.
The Tools
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Hit
Featuring good hand-eye coordination, bat speed, and strength, Busch should be a .280-.290 hitter at this level. While just over one month of the season has been played, the results for Busch at the plate have been nice. His Avg. EV doesn’t wow anyone, but his xSLG ranks in the 87th percentile and his Sweet-Spot% and Barrell% both rank in the 90th percentile or better.
Michael Busch started the season red-hot. Through his first 19 games, he was slashing .328/.405/.656 with a 1.062 OPS. Since that start, however, it has been rough on Busch. Over his last 17 games entering Friday, he is slashing .180/.200/.312 with only one homer and four RBI. His strikeout rate has jumped from 28% to 42% during this rough patch while his walk rate has dropped from 12% to 6%.
This is something to watch, but I don’t think it will be the norm for Busch going forward.
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Power
As Busch has aged, he has grown stronger and also has figured out how to tap into his power potential. At North Carolina, he hit 32 homers in 184 games and averaged one homer every 19.3 at-bats. In 2021, his first full season in the minors, he averaged a homer once every 20.5 at-bats. As he has progressed up the minor league ladder, his homers/at-bat ratio continued to improve. It was one homer every 17.25 at-bats in 2022 and last year it was 1/14.4 ABs.
While Busch was tapping into his power swing, it did not come at the expense of his batting average. He hit .267 in 2021, .274 in 2022 and .323 in 2023. Nor did his strikeout rate increase. It was 26% in both 2021 and 2022 and fell to 19% last year.
Will he ever be a 30-homer hitter? Maybe, but probably not consistently. But he should become and 25-27 homer player, and that is good with me.
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Speed
Michael Busch isn’t “slow” as his sprint speed ranks in the 45th percentile. But he is not a base stealer. He was able to steal some bases in the college and swipe one here and there in the minors. But I wouldn’t count on him to help you in that category.
The Verdict
Michael Busch isn’t going to be a superstar. If he were, we wouldn’t be talking about him one month into the season. But he is going to be a very good dynasty player for you. He won’t hurt your slash line and he is going to hit for power, which means he will also drive in runs. The steals won’t be there, but you can’t have everything.
He is struggling at the plate right now, but if you don’t have him on your roster, now might be a good time to try to poach him from another owner. Every dynasty league has an owner (or four) who is impatient and wants that instant gratification. If an owner like that owns Busch, now would be a good time to try to make that trade for him.
If you have him, don’t let him go. It was only natural for Busch to hit a rough patch after his fast start. I have more than enough faith that he will right the ship and get going again.
