Language is such an important aspect of society yet we underrate how difficult it is. One can learn the fundamentals of any language yet change the intonation, add a punctuation mark, spell it differently, and/or tweak the context and the Tower of Babel arises. Tell the homies that you’re going to go out and ball? No one bats an eye. Tell them you’re going out to bawl, then everyone loses their mind. When I’m an idiot and pick up the phone from an unlisted number, hello? The crush calls? Heeeeeeelllllloooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo. You see the ex on the street and hello can mean many things. If someone just started playing fantasy baseball this year, then it’d be all about heeeeeeellllllllllllloooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo to Jo Adell of the Anaheim Angels (I refuse to acknowledge that the Angels are from Los Angeles). In 25 plate appearances, he has a .304/.360/.478 slash with a 20% strikeout rate and .174 ISO. For the grizzled veterans of the game, then it is hellsno to Adell as they remember last season’s appearance in The Show: .161/.212/.266 slash with a 41.7% strikeout rate and .105 ISO in 132 plate appearances. So, which hello is it going to be going forward for Adell?
Adell is 6-foot-3, 215 pounds, and bats from the right side. He was drafted by the Angels with the 10th overall selection in the 2017 MLB draft. He’s always been known as a power/speed player who strikes out a ton. Fangraphs has his raw power at 70 with a game power of 50 while the speed is at 60. He had an ISO over .240 in portions of three minor league seasons with a strikeout rate over 30% in two.
The things that jump out to me right away with Adell’s current streak are the 20% strikeout rate and .389 BABIP. I think it’s safe to say that strikeout number isn’t real. He’s likely a 30% strikeout batter. As for the BABIP, he has maintained a high number throughout his career, but .389 is lofty. So, even if we are generous and drop him .050, that still leaves him at .330 and the batting average would come down to the .250 area. And that’s probably being generous.
The sample size is tiny at 25 plate appearances, so keep this in mind when I go over the next set of numbers. The ground ball rate is at 50% while the pull percentage is at 61.1%. That ain’t good and could portend for pitchers to exploit him low-and-away. He’s still chasing at a 36.2% rate and swinging 71.1% of the time.
The swinging-strike rate is only 8.7% and the contact rate in the zone is 93.8% while the overall contact rate is 83%. What’s that smell? I closed my legs and put down my arms. Oh, it’s the smell of unsustainability. His career swinging-strike average is 18.3% while he had contact rates in the 60% range last season.
Now, he’s only 22 years old and I’m sure he’s developed. He also has MLB experience under his belt. I’ve acquired him in leagues because the ceiling is massive and I just love the power/speed combo. I used to shy away from high strikeout players but it comes with the territory so no risk it, no biscuit. That said, regression is likely to come but it’s within the range of outcomes, albeit a small one, that he continues to ball. I’d acquire due to the upside but keep expectations in check. TRASHY TREASURE
