I’m a fatty, which therefore means that I’m hungry all the time. In my younger days, my metabolism and constant activity allowed me to maintain a svelte, Bruce Lee-esque physique. Nowadays, cranking out posts for Razzball in my mom’s basement has meant that the scale flashes CAN NOT COMPUTE when I step on it. I’ve started to exercise more and am trying to diet but I am still but a human. As I was scrolling through the NFBC ADP, I came across Mike Yastrzemski and became intrigued, and it’s not just because his name made me think of deli meat. Well, it is close to lunchtime so that may have had something to do with it. Anyways, digging into Yastrzemski was akin to going to Katz’s Deli, ordering a sandwich, then realizing that the cashier gave me a discount.
Yastrzemski is 31 years old, 5′ 10″, and 178 pounds. He bats from the left side and was drafted by the Orioles in the 14th round of the 2013 MLB Draft.
Throughout his minor league career, he was more like Mehzemski. He hit double-digit home runs only once, and that was in Single-A during his second year in professional baseball. He stole double-digit bases twice in his six years with Baltimore. He never made it to the big club and when he finally made it to Triple-A, the batting average was in the .260 range with a walk rate around 10% and a strikeout rate in the 22% area. The ISO was .170-ish.
In 2019, he was traded to the Giants, which was a few months after Farhan Zaidi became the Presient of Baseball Operations. Zaidi has proven to be well-accomplished in identifying and developing talent and providing the approach, coaching, and analytics to put his players in the best position for success.
In 2018, the Giants were 29th in ISO with a .129 mark. The following season, they moved up one spot with a .153 number. Then in 2020, the results of the change in philosophy, approach, and coaching manifested as San Francisco rocketed up to seventh with an ISO of .187. Last season, they finished third with a .191 mark.
After middling in the .170 area in ISO, the Giants unlocked Yastrzemski to the tune of a .245 ISO his first season with the big club. He ended up getting 411 plate appearances in 2019 and clubbed 21 home runs. The slash was .272/.334/.518. In 2020, the slash was .297/.400/.568 with 10 home runs in 225 plate appearances. The strikeout rates were 26% and 24.4% during those seasons while the walk rates were 7.8% and 13.3%. As a result, Yastrzemski was being drafted 136.67 on average during drafts before the 2021 season.
Then in a spring training at-bat, he got plunked by Sean Manaea, on the left hand near his face.
“Getting hit on my hand up near my face kind of put me in a weird mindset. I had to fight that. There are certain moments that can have a longer impact on you. I had to work through that last year and try to eliminate it. So having a break to recalibrate and reset my mind hopefully will help me get back to where I was.” (courtesy of mccoveychronicles.com)
Last season, Yastrzemski had a .170/.254/.259 slash with a .089 ISO against left-handed pitching. Over his career, the slash is .249/.328/.444 with a .195 ISO. Your honor, the defense rests.
But there’s more….
Last season, the batting average was .224. Yuck, I know. That said, the BABIP was a paltry .254. In the prior two seasons, that number was .325 and .370, so there was plenty of bad luck, in addition to his PTSD against lefties.
When I dig into the numbers, the chase rate was at 27.5% while the swinging strike rate was 10.2%, well within his career range. The contact rate in the zone was 84.5% while the contact rate, in general, was 77.6%.
The only significant changes that I saw were that he pulled the more, almost 3% more, and increased the fly ball rate by 5%. I attribute that to an organizational philosophy to hit for more power so that doesn’t alarm me.
The other change I saw was how pitchers attacked him. They threw the fastball only 47.5%, compared to 55.6% and 58.5% in the prior two seasons. Conversely, he saw more sliders, curveballs, and cutters. He hit .143 against breaking pitches last season. In the prior two seasons, he hit .240 and .277 against them. I’m thinking this had to do with his troubles against lefties last season.
Entering the 2022 season, Yastrzemski is slated to bat leadoff and not be part of a platoon. There is risk that his problems from last season aren’t fixed, but that’s baked into the acquisition cost. In NFBC drafts from 3/31/2022 to 3/30/2022, he is being selected with the 287th pick on average.
He could approach 600 plate appearances and hit around 25 home runs with a handful of steals. I’d expect some BABIP regression this season so a repeat of the .224 batting average doesn’t seem likely, especially since much of that was likely due to his mental struggles against lefties. The ISO will likely be over .200. Only 64 players had an ISO over .200 last season.
Remember that he hit .297 and .272 in his prior two seasons with the Giants. Put it all together and the risk/reward seems favorable. I’d like another Yastrzemski to go in order to appease my palette for 2022.
