At 19-years old, a rising prospect named Michael Nelson Trout tried to burst onto the scene. However, more than anything he burst the bubble of hopeful fans with a .220 average, sub-25% hard hit rate and merely five homers in 40 games. With all players being truly defined by their small sample sizes, Trout was clearly a bust and never to be heard from again. Sure, he has gone on to have a career with more than 350 homers, 200 steals and a batting average over .300, but anybody can do that. Fantasy owners have a tendency to write off players quickly and especially young prospects that did not stick in the Majors out of the gate. This week, we use our hitter profiles to investigate whether we should buy or sell some players that have had a cup of coffee but are awaiting their next shot at the Majors.
Luken Baker
Baker launched another home run Friday night for his 33rd of the season leading all of the minor leagues to go along with 98 runs batted in. The 26-year old slugger has been no match for AAA pitching but has only earned 20 plate appearances on the big league roster. His approach this season appears to have taken a step forward as we see positive trends in both his walk and strikeout rates. For context, he has been lucky to a degree with one in three flyballs leaving the yard. The power is real and has been delivered this year, but questions remain on the overall hit tool from scouts. The biggest problem with Baker is not with him at all but the fact that he is blocked at the Major League level by Paul Goldschmidt and a solid rotation keeping guys fresh at DH. He profiles as a CJ Cron type hitter at his best outcome, but ultimately needs a trade to find an opportunity which is a stretch for this older prospect. There is more value in the hype than the likelihood of stardom, but he has been fun to watch:
Dinger number 3??3?? is GRAND for Luken Baker!
The @Cardinals slugger extends his MiLB home run lead with the @memphisredbirds: pic.twitter.com/5FghM0folh
— Minor League Baseball (@MiLB) August 11, 2023
Verdict: Sell
Xavier Edwards
Xavier ‘Slapstick’ Edwards has made his was through a number organizations starting out with San Diego, Tamp Bay and now with Miami. When called up earlier this season, he hit well across nine games (.381) but did not stick on the Major League roster. Back with the AAA club, Xavier has been on fire since the start of July. Since July 1, he is hitting .417 with a combined 60 runs and runs batted in and 17 steals in 19 attempts. While the power long-term may only land in the single digits, he has made strides in his overall approach. During that same timeframe since July, across 153 plate appearances, Edwards has only struck out nine times. On the minor league season as a whole he has struck out less than 6% of the time which is about half of his career average. As a potential .290-.300 hitter with 40+ steal upside, there is value especially as a category specialist.
Verdict: Soft Buy
Estevan Florial
When it comes to cups of coffee at the Major League level, nobody embodies that more than Florial. He has made appearances in each of the last four season with the Yankees but only managed 63 plate appearances with very limited results. However, across 79 games in AAA this year, he has been making noise. Hitting .297 with 23 homers and 19 steals, he is boasting a 136 wRC+. While on the surface, these are exciting results, there are warning signs. For starters, he has never been an efficient base runner and is only successful at a 65% rate this season which will lead to a red light in the Majors. In addition, this is also his third season at AAA with the only growth being a spike in homers due to HR/FB luck. Finally, the Yankees have shown minimal confidence in giving Florial a chance to hit whereas they have stuck with a guy Like Anthony Volpe all year thanks to the potential they see. There are good surface stats, but there is very little to look forward to with Florial from a fantasy perspective when he gets his next cup of the Majors.
Verdict: Sell
