Up until now I’ve been saying this guy or that guy can be the top prospect for 2024 fantasy baseball. Welp, don’t think that’s the case here. Oh, I could be wrong. That’s happened before to me (once). When he was called up, I said, “Was much more excited about Kjerstad before this call up. When I thought he was the capital of Aruba? No, not that far back. Back when I thought the O’s might play him and he had time to actually play. Not sure why the O’s took so long to call him up, but it’s deflated my enthusiasm. He looks like he could have some power, and might hit .250 with little speed.” And that’s me quoting me! That doesn’t even sound like a profile that’s worth going over in a full post, huh? Well, the thing is, it was the 2nd week in September, and a guy like, say, Matt Olson isn’t that interesting if he were just called up. I don’t just randomly bring up Matt Olson, wait until you see Kjerstad’s power. It’ll be gorgeous in the clip after the: So, what can we expect from Heston Kjerstad for 2024 fantasy baseball?

Here’s Heston Kjerstad is his first major league at-bat:

He was drafted 2nd overall by the Orioles in 2020, which might’ve been an overreach, but I think it hints to what the Orioles think of him. Or, at least, thought of him back then. He did take a few years to get where he was an option to be called up, because he was battling health issues for a year, and missed 2021. Now that he’s back and hitting for power again, we’re back to being interested. Have some real concerns about his propensity to strike out, at least upon arrival at a new level. He had a 30.3% strikeout rate in the majors last year. Sure, in only 13 games, and 30 ABs, but I wouldn’t have mentioned it if it didn’t seem characteristic of potential future issues.

Is there a chance Heston Kjerstad has a starting job? That’s really the only reason to be excited for him in redraft leagues. While the Ryan O’Hearn thing played out about as well as the O’s could’ve wanted it to last year, he doesn’t seem to be any reasonably minded person’s answer to start at 1st base again. Though, the Orioles aren’t always reasonably minded. Take: Whatever was going on with Aaron Hicks hitting fifth last year. The O’s should have room for Heston Kjerstad. Figure Mountcastle and him platoon, at worst. Oops, that sounds bad. I’d trade Mountcastle, but I don’t know if the O’s will.

There are guys littered along the KBO highway for prospects drafted in the top five in the MLB draft who never pan out. Not saying that will be Kjerstad, but 30+ homer power with a .220 average becomes 50-homer power in Korea while hitting .250 real fast. So, 30+ homer power, likely won’t hit vs. lefties and might strike out vs. righties. Hmm, beginning to see what September Grey saw in him, and why I don’t think he’ll be the top rookie in 2024. He seems like an AL-Only draft pick for now, who needs to show he can hit and play every day. For 2024 fantasy, I’ll give Heston Kjerstad projections of 43/14/54/.228/1 in 377 ABs.

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23 days ago

Luzardo or Kim?

25 days ago

Capitol of Aruba! HAAA! Could he pass for Gunnar’s lil bro? Yeah get the early feeling he’s not gonna play vs LHP, but his hit tool could possibly change that. Will be closely watching this spring. O’s certainly have some great young talent. Have a great day!

Harley Earl
Harley Earl
25 days ago

I got this very same feeling as I watched Kjerstad in his brief call-up. I didn’t see the mojo that I hoped to see. Glad to see you arrive at this opinion as he’s on my keeper team and right at the cut/keep line. Probably going to cut him loose.

I do hope he finds success though as I’ve watched him since his college days. Well done good Sir.

Jose Hernandez
Jose Hernandez
25 days ago

Grey, Having in Japan? Are you scouting Yamamoto? Haha…
I just acquire OF Nolan Jones, for my rebuilding team. What kind of forecast do you have for him? in 2024 and beyond.

Jose Hernandez
Jose Hernandez
Reply to  Grey
25 days ago

Can you give some numbers? your forecast for 2024?

25 days ago

Grey — thoughts on Manzardo this year? Or are they to come? Also Vaughn Grissom? Do you think he needs a trade to find full
playing time?

You might see my response time. I’m in LA — just can’t sleep. And already thinking about baseball 2024.

25 days ago


Great Kjerstad write-up and great Oranjestad referral to boot for my friend Bas from Holland!

a. One addition to your report…’with the chance of more.’ You always end with the chance of more except for Kjerstad. I guess he won’t be that great.

b. In a 12-team fantrax bestball, 60 rounds. Scoring, apart from the usual, is HRx3, SBx3, IPx1.5, Wx6, SVx6, QSx3, ERx-1.5 and Kx1.5. A few questions.

1. My team through 12.2 rounds. Your thoughts and where I should focus.

Soto (round 1, 6th)
Devers (2)
PabLo (3)
Adolis (4)
Oneil (5)
Steele (6)
McLain (7)
Casas (8)
Buehler (9)
Carter (10)
Esteury (11)
Baz (12)

That makes 8 hitters and 4 pitchers. My strategy is to have 3 catchers, then 4-5 per position stacking Red Sox, Rangers and Reds for hitters where possible and I plan on drafting the entire Rays and Cubs bullpens (with Counsell’s move). Overall my plan is to have 38 hitters and 22 pitchers (made up of 10 starters, 7 middle relief and 5 closers). What do you think of that strategy?

2. May I post the results of the draft here when it ends? We should finish up in 7-10 days or so.

3. So far some whack moves. Strider 3rd overall. Riley in the 2nd round.


Reply to  Grey
25 days ago



Japan is my dream destination after I completed my advanced Michel Thomas Japanese course!

Nihon-ni ikimas, nihon-go kimas, meaning I go to Japan, I love Japanese (more or less!).

Draft results will be posted. Will keep you up-to-date on whacky moves, ADP is a storm in this draft.

Wonky pitching but if Buehler is sitting 96+, 95+ in ST…gotta dream man. SP available and in my queue.

Michael King
Mason Miller
Bryce Miller
Cade Horton

As I have 0 RP, I will take Alexis Diaz if he is available when I pick next (3 picks). If Diaz goes, I’ll take an SP (I’m between King and Triston).

Safe travels stateside! What’s your itinerary?