Draft This: Cesar Hernandez, PHI ~ Not That: Chris Taylor, LAD
I can’t wait to break this one down for y’all. The last paragraph is gonna be a real slap in the face! Chris Taylor played the majority of his games at OF last season (and will do so this again in 2018,) but he logged 22 games at second and for the most part that’s what I think people will be drafting him to play on their teams.
Let’s get this one out of the way. From the time he was drafted in 2012 until the end of the 2016 season Chris Taylor hit 24 HR over 1,948 ABs between the Mariners and Dodgers major and minor league systems. That is about 81 ABs between HRs. In 2017 he hit a career high 21 HR in 514 ABs. That’s 1 HR every 24.5 ABs. That is over a 300% improvement. This is where I’d insert the emoji of a guy scratching his chin. Hernandez missed 36 games in 2017 with the dreaded strained oblique. However, even in only 128 games Hernandez also crushed his career high HR in 2017 with a Ruthian 9. With those extra 36 games played, it is reasonable to believe he would have reached at least 12 HR. With Taylor’s HR expected to come down and Hernandez healthy for a full season I think a reasonable expectation is for both guys to hit about 12-15 HR.
2018 HR Advantage: Push
In 2017 Taylor also enjoyed a .288 batting average — his highest in the major leagues. But lean a little bit closer and that average really smells like it was fue-ue-ue-ueled by a .361 BABIP — which was 7th highest in all of MLB. This BABIP isn’t too out of the range of possibilities considering Taylor’s speed is legit — but it should come down somewhat which will drop his average down to .270 or lower. Hernandez wasn’t too far off with a .353 BABIP/.296 AVG but his better walk-rate, lower strikeout rate and higher contact rate makes me think that the nod in batting average and on-base percentage should go to Hernandez. The last thing I’ll say about Chris Taylor’s 2017 is that his 25% K/rate ranked 2nd worst among second basemen and is unfortunately pretty consistent with his 25.6% career rate in the major leagues. Striking out this often isn’t going to help his slash line any.
2018 Batting Average/OBP Advantage: Hernandez
Both players did collect 85 runs scored, however Hernandez found himself hitting lead-off in 50 more games than Taylor. According to Roster Resource, Taylor will start opening day hitting ahead of Corey Seager, Justin Turner, and Cody Bellinger. The runs will come early and often for Taylor and the Dodgers. However, not to be out done — Hernandez will be leading off in front of Odubel Herrera, Carlos Santana and Rhys Hoskins. At first glance, the advantage would appear to easily go to the Dodgers. However let’s take a look at that Phillies top four. Odubel Herrera has a career .344 OBP. Carlos Santana has a career .365 OBP and a career .826 OPS with RISP. Rhys Hoskins in 45 AB last season had a .356 AVG and 1.403 OPS with RISP. I think Hernandez will be able to equal any run total that Chris Taylor will put up.
2018 Runs Scored Advantage: Push
In the stolen base department, Hernandez kept pace with Taylor with 15 on the season after having 19 in 2015 and 17 in 2016. Taylor stole 17 bases in 2017 and has 20-25 SB upside — but again — when healthy, so does Hernandez. As you’ll see below getting 20 SB at Hernandez’s price is a much better value than 20 SB where you’ll have to take Taylor.
2018 Stolen Base Advantage: Push
The nod in RBI in 2017 went to Taylor 72 to 34, but that’s to be expected when one line-up wins 93 games and the other only 56. Taylor also found himself with runners on base 309 times compared to Cesar Hernandez’s 240. At the beginning of the season Taylor was often not hitting in the lead-off spot (49 games) and it shows in who he was able to drove in the most: Yasiel Puig, Corey Seager and Cody Bellinger. Compared to Cesar’s most driven in — Andrew Knapp, Freddy Galvis and Cameron Rupp — who were hitting at the bottom of the Phillies craptacular line-up. The Dodgers still have a better line-up but with Taylor fixed into the lead-off spot for the Dodgers his RBI total will come down drastically. He will no longer benefit from Puig, Seager and Bellinger getting on base. He’s more likely (or actually less likely) to see Joc Pederson, Austin Barnes and Logan Forsythe on base.
2018 RBI Advantage: Taylor
As you can see, these two hitters share a lot of similarities heading into 2018. They’re both starting the season healthy, they’re turning 28 this season and they’re both expected to hit lead-off for their respective clubs. But here is where they differ drastically: average draft position. Taylor, currently has a 98 ADP on Fantrax will cost you an 8th or 9th round pick in a standard 12-team league. Hernandez, with a 243 ADP can be taken 145 picks later in the 20th or 21st round. For Taylor’s price you can grab from this trio of young, huge upside starting pitchers instead: Jose Berrios, Luis Castillo or Alex Wood — all of whom currently have an ADP of 99 on Fantrax. If you find yourself in round 8 or 9 panicking without your second base slot filled skip Chris Taylor and draft Cesar Hernandez. The value gained could be a difference maker on your team as he will put up almost identical 5×5 numbers to Taylor.
2018 ADP Advantage: Hernandez
