Draft This: Brett Gardner, NYY | Not That: Tommy Pham, STL
I’ve participated in a half-dozen drafts already (sometimes 2 or 3 at a time) so I feel like I have a good grasp on potential draft steals that you can take advantage of. I’m actually representing the Razzball family in a 5×5 standard roto mock draft as I’m writing this! (Check the final results here.)
I know what you’re thinking already, “But Kerry, how could you take that old bag of bones over that young buck Tommy Pham?!” Tommy Pham is 30. You know every fantasy baseball manager recoils when they see a three at the front of a player’s age! Yes, Gardner is 4 years older than Pham — but as I’m about to show you — his production isn’t that far off.
Runs:
Pham, 2017: 95
Gardner, 2017: 96
Pham almost matched Gardner in 2017 in 23 fewer games. But this is 2018 baby! A new year! Pham found himself on base at a .411 clip compared to Gardner’s .351. Pham’s 2017 seemed to be fueled by a .368 BABIP that ranked him 4th in all of baseball. As that number comes down, so will Pham’s ratios which will affect his run total. Gardner was who we thought he was in 2017. His OBP the past three years has been: .343, .350, .351. I think both Pham and Gardner could both hover in this range in 2018. According to Roster Resource hitting behind Pham will be new Cardinal Marcell Ozuna, old Cardinal Matt Carpenter and oldest Cardinal Yadier Molina. Behind Gardner will be a Judge and 3 G’s: Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Greg Bird and Gary Sanchez. While Pham’s protection is great, Gardner’s is legendary.
Home Runs:
Pham, 2017: 23
Gardner, 2017: 21
Both guys reached career highs in their power numbers in 2017. Pham’s 26.7% HR/FB rate landed him 6th in that category behind some names you may recognize: Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Domingo Santana, Joey Gallo and Khris Davis. One of these things is not like the other. The crazy thing about Pham is that he had a 1.98 GB/FB ratio and hit 51.7% of his balls into the ground. The scary thing — is that those numbers aren’t too far off from his career. If Pham joins the launch angle/fly ball revolution, even with that HR/FB rate coming down to Earth a bit he still could have 30 HR potential in his bat. If he doesn’t, he’ll stick around the 20-25 HR plateau. Gardner had double-digit pop in his bat in 2014 and 2015, but 2016’s 7 HR performance happened due to a 52.3% GB rate (career high) and a 5.9 HR/FB rate (4-year low.) Another 15-20 HR season is a lock for a Gardy.
RBI:
Pham, 2017: 73
Gardner, 2017: 63
Gardner’s 63 RBI was only 3 off from his career high, but that’s to be expected batting leadoff for most of his career behind the Yankees bottom hitters. Pham on the other hand batted second most often behind Matt Carpenter’s .384 OBP so the RBI opportunities were plentiful. Pham will again be hitting in the 2-hole this time behind Dexter Fowler and his .366 career OBP. Pair this with Pham’s .305 AVG with RISP in 2017 and 75 RBI is attainable. Gardner’s .263 AVG with RISP leaves a lot to be desired, but I like the trio of Neil Walker, Aaron Hicks and Brandon Drury batting 7, 8, 9 way more than Chase Headley, Ronald Torreyes and Austin Romine.
Stolen Bases:
Pham, 2017: 25
Gardner, 2017: 23
Pham and Gardner both have speed scores of 6.0 in 2017. This number is a helpful indicator (but not a predictor) of a player’s true speed. It takes into account stolen base attempts, runs scored, triples etc. Gardner after 2012 is a consistent 20-25 SB threat. Since 2013, here are his SB totals: 24, 21, 20, 16, 23. Pham stole 20 bases in 104 AAA games in 2014 so his speed is real as well. The Yankees and Cardinals were ranked 16th and 17th respectively in stolen bases attempted per game in 2017. Basically, what I’m trying to get at here is Pham and Gardner are both going to steal 20-25 bases in 2018.
Batting Average
Pham, 2017: .306
Gardner, 2017: .264.
If you can’t tell by now, Gardy is one of the most consistent players year by year. Here are his batting averages since 2014: .256, .259, .261, .264. I’m predicting .267 for 2018. Pham, on the other hand, as I mentioned earlier seemed to get a few lucky bounces with a .368 BABIP. That, plus his 51% ground ball rate could spell disaster for his average in 2018. When half of your batted balls have a chance to be easily fielded you could be in for a course correction if any those balls go a foot closer to an infielder. His 22.1% K/rate is also a bit high and on par with his minor league rate.
2018 Composite Projections
Pham: 88 runs/22 HR/76 RBI/19 SB/.267 AVG
Gardner: 80 runs/15 HR/56 RBI/15 SB/.265 AVG
In my opinion, these projections aren’t taking into account the improvements to the Yankees line-up that should provide better opportunities for Gardner to score himself and score others. However, Gardner and Pham’s projections aren’t wildly off from one another. But you know what is wildly off? Their ADPs. Pham’s current ADP across all draft sites is 59.8. Gardner’s: 171.1. Look, everyone gets excited by the new shiny Buzz Lightyear toy, but don’t forget old Woody when it comes to draft time. Howdy, howdy, howdy!
