Do You Like Your Sasaki Hot Or Cold?

My nearly 500 trips through the Razzball CMS have given me a pretty keen eye for my audience: you’re middle-aged, drive a car, and prefer the affordable things in life. “That’s easy, E-Dubya-Bee,” you say, “I’m here at Razzball in January.” A-ha! But there’s more I know about you. You come to Razzball for Grey’s writings, but use Rudy’s rankings. You once joined a league with touts and were in first place through August before you ran out of healthy bodies and finished out of the running. You watch Severance and see a little bit of yourself in all the characters, but your secret is that you’re most like Ricken. You’re a beer drinker at heart, but when you go out for sushi, you draw your finger down the sake menu before inevitably settling in for a Sapporo tall boy that you paid $7.50 for and think tastes like a Miller Lite.

But that sake list — and let’s make sure you’re pronouncing that sah-kay like a cultured Razzball reader and not rhyming with “lake” like a FantasyPros subscriber — you wonder whether today’s the day you order sake. But then you see “Hot/Cold.” And you think back to your August fantasy baseball team. Why did I stack it with Twins, you ask yourself, thinking of the inevitable September cold streak that keeps EWB’s favorite team from the playoffs. The waitstaff arrives at your table and you forget the sake and you go with the ol’ can o’ brew.

This is you reader. I know this because some time in the next 8 weeks, you’re going to stare at the draft board and see “Roki Sasaki” and think, “Hot or Cold”? Friends, I’m here to approach that question with a bunch of hazy answers, and we’ll see if we can’t get you a hot pitcher for a value price.

Roki Sasaki, 2025 Fantasy Baseball Analysis

Let’s start with the crucial information: Roki Sasaki is already ADP 73 on the National Fantasy Championships website, going as early as 52nd overall. Let’s put that in perspective: the kid just turned 23 and is SP19 on the draft board. For aggressive drafters, he’s your second starting pitcher. For drafters like me, that means he could be your first starting pitcher. [gulping noises]

In 2024, in all of MLB, there were 36 starting pitchers aged 23 or younger. 7 of those babes topped the 100 IP mark. 1 of those topped 10 Wins. Alright hot shot — name the player! Yep, it was Paul Skenes. And as much as we love a Skenes sighting, his fantasy value was propped up by a 1.96 ERA coupled with a 0.96 WHIP. Unless he’s the second coming of Pedro Martinez, those numbers will regress more towards his 2.71 SIERA. Still, very good. But this isn’t an article about Paul Skenes.

This is an article about those other 90% of young starters who didn’t really contribute meaningfully to your fantasy roster. I mean, this is an article about Roki Sasaki!

Roki Sasaki in the NPB

Long have front offices and armchair projectionists tried to predict how performance in Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball (NPB) will translate to Major League Baseball. And long have they ended up making fools of themselves. The most we can accurately say about the transition of stats is a player’s trends towards performance. For fantasy baseball starters, we have driving factors that give us indications of long-term success: strikeouts per nine innings (K/9), and volume of innings pitched. And believe it or not, the best predictor for volume of innings pitched, is whether or not they’ve done it before. Just look at the trends in the table below and tell me you see a 180+ IP guy.

Sasaki has the K/9 factor working for him, while his IP volume is about as palatable as your cod roe roll after it’s been sitting in your fridge overnight.

Now, I’m as guilty as anybody about taking low IP volume pitchers and piling them on my best ball teams. But Sasaki’s 2024 inning volume — when compared to MLB pitching — put him in-between Cole Irvin and Jordan Hicks, each of whom weren’t starters the entire year. Sasaki’s 111 IP in 2024 was a frame less than Kenta Maeda, for what it’s worth.

Maybe it’s because I just went another turn around the sun, but I don’t buy into the “stuff” marketing so much anymore. The types of pitches that make amazing GIFs don’t win your fantasy league because the guys lose a beat of rhythm and the strike becomes a ball, or they snap their elbow from all the stress of the slider. Sasaki’s blistering fastball is lovely for fans of pitching, but it doesn’t bode the best for winning your fantasy team if he can’t stay out there long enough to chalk up Wins.

Roki Sasaki’s 2025 Playing Time

Roki Sasaki steps into a crowded pitching room, with the Los Angeles Dodgers sporting 6 potential starters, not including Shohei Ohtani. Ohtani is theoretically ready to return from Tommy John surgery and resume his two-way career as a hitter and pitcher. Let’s not forget that Ohtani, despite losing time to elbow injuries, has 3+ years of MLB pitching where he topped 130 IP while sporting a 10+ K/9 rate and finishing fourth overall in Cy Young voting in 2022. With a lot of mouths to feed, we can see Sasaki getting eased into things — which is great for real life — but not great for your fantasy team.

Additionally, the last time a Dodgers starter topped 140 IP was in 2022, when Tyler Anderson and Julio Urias went over 175 frames each. Since then, the Dodgers rotation has been filled out with glass cannons or spot starters that haven’t climbed above 140 IP for the team. And who needs your starters to rack up innings when you have like 18 closers?

Between Sasaki’s track record of low IP and the Dodger’s recent history of low-IP starters and a crowded starting pitcher room, it’s tough to project Sasaki for more than 130 IP in 2025.

2025 Roki Sasaki Projections

It’s possible for pitchers with 130ish IP of volume to provide value to your fantasy team — Paul Skenes finished as SP8 with 133 IP last year, after all. But what about the other low-IP hurlers? Tyler Glasnow finished SP27, with Reynaldo Lopez behind him at SP28. Bryan Woo landed at SP35 and Joe Ryan at SP44. But it’s important to note — most of these guys are way less valuable than the top pitchers. Also, none of them were your SP2 leaving the draft room.

My line on Sasaki is that he gets about 22 starts, posts a 7-5 record, with a 3.20 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, and 10.5 K/9. That would make him a candidate for SP3-4 on most teams, around 110-120 ADP overall. We’ve never seen him pitch a high volume of innings, and the K/9 rate will likely take a drop from the 13.0 peak a few years ago.

That said, we’re talking about a 23 year-old pitcher. As I lead off with, there were a handful of 23-year olds pitching in MLB last year. Truth is, the vast majority of young pitchers aren’t ready for MLB action at that age. For dynasty players, Sasaki is top priority to acquire, but you may not see him leading your team to the championship until a couple years from now. That’s to be expected.

For 2025, though, it’s tough to consider a guy like Sasaki as your #1 or #2 starter, especially in money or high-stakes leagues. Inning volume can do so much for adequate pitchers. By the start of the season, I bet Sasaki is in the 50s for ADP or perhaps even mid-40s, once the hype machine gets building. Those 4th-5th round choices are so key for building your batting lineup that I’d hesitate to draft Sasaki at the going rate.

And while we’re being honest with each other, wouldn’t it have been great for Roki to sign with the Rockies? Anybody got a good recipe for a Rocky Sasaki? ENYWHEY. To finish the awkward beginning analogy, I’m cold on Sasaki for 2025 fantasy baseball because I don’t see the inning volume. For dynasty players he’s a top choice and we’ll rejoice in 2-3 years when he’s developed into his final form.

Drop your takes down in the comments, and let’s have an awesome time in 2025!