Ah, Jay talking about a player on the Padres. Much wow. Okay, I get it and I’m self-conscious about it, you happy? And it’s not about me, it’s about you… and Dinelson Lamet. There is much content being driven by the fact that we have a pitcher whose ADP was around 103ish who has now started the season with three starts and six innings total. Yes, that’s right, two innings per start. While certainly the most boldest of strategies that could ever be conceived by one Pepper Brooks, the Padres seem determined to start a pitcher that might not eclipse five innings total per start in the near future and even the rest of the season. While I remain a big believer in the concept of sunk cost fallacy, I’ve also steadfastly remained a Padres fan for nye 30+ years and based literally 70% of my content on that fandom. That is to say, my judgement may be a rollercoaster of emotion, but at least we get to experience another hot Lamet take like we would watching a 16-car pile-up play itself out. Join me?
Okay, so, I know there is this idea out there that you should cut bait and move on. I… really can’t argue against that, question mark? For one, context matters, so every league is different, every team is different, yadda yadda. Not a crutch, but I actually think Lamet can thread the needle here and be somewhat useful in certain situations. But let’s get the quicker of my two takes out of the way. I am completely fine with you exiting stage left on this train. Why there’s a train anywhere near a stage is anyone’s idea, but aside from sh*tty world-building, I actually think that you’ll find something more useful off the waiver wire right now and in the majority of leagues and formats.
Whoo, that means all y’all out there who were waiting to set yourself free from what is essentially a 30-pitch (lol) starter, you can go home. Nothing more to see here. Move along. OR DON’T! Sorry, had to shout for those who already left. What if I told you that I have some thoughts to chew, where as in some specific cases you could actually take a wait and see approach? I could just be using big words to cover for my caveats, but I at least want to try and convince myself, and maybe other(s) that perhaps there is a case to be made. (Sunk cost fallacy given me a real dirty look now guys. It’s kinda awkward here.)
So right, keeper leagues, easy distinction. You keep. NL-only any-format? Yeah. Simulation or any exotics with league constitutions longer than your college thesis? Fo sho. 12-teamers? Now it gets interesting. I think in this case, you can actually keep. While you can make a solid case that the Padres are showing caution, especially with their current knack for exploding body parts and defenestration, it would be hard pressed to continually send out a starter for two innings. And that’s why 12-team leagues kind of blur the line here. In these leagues, the roster makeup allows for some spots to be wasted on depth or niche stats, or projects. I think Lamet actually fits all three of these criteria. First, who doesn’t want another pitcher on their roster right now? Seems to be a rotating mess of implosions at the moment, so quality innings from anything right now is a plus-plus. In terms of niche stats, despite velocity concerns, Lamet has already struck out five in his limited time (6.0 IP) and might buff your ratio stats. And then you have the project-status, and boy is Lamet probably a year-long project.
Rose-colored glasses? Yes, totally. But I think that’s what you have to weight… what you want to get out of this draft pick at the moment? Remember, I empathize that Lamet messed with a lot of teams outlooks when he went down with forearm tightness, but if you do see something better out there right now, move on without regrets. That’s absolutely reinforced in 10-team leagues. Especially when you factor in something that I didn’t touch on at all, and that’s the risk for an eventual Tommy John surgery, with forearm tightness often being the precursor).
Nothing can change what you paid for him, so keeping him around when there’s something more helpful out there just compounds the error. However, as this thought exercise has shown, there are some cases where you should consider holding on. Wish-washy enough for you? I know. I guess take it this way. I’m telling you that if you’re still hung up on whether you should hold or drop, you have my blessing, such as it is. I’m not even religious! However, if your team, format, situation, etc. give you some pause, I say embrace it. If you squint really hard, like migraine hard, there might be something great here after some time, but there’s not much use in waiting around for something that may never happen.
Hope for the best, expect the worst. Drop if you want, but if you can, hang on for a little bit longer and see what happens.
Jay is a longtime Razzball everything who consumes an egregious amount of Makers Mark as a vehicle to gain wisdom and augment his natural glow. Living in the D.C. area, he also likes spending time visiting the local parks and feeding lettuce to any turtles he encounters, including Mitch McConnell. You can follow him @jaywrong, or read his rarely (like never) updated blog Desultory Thoughts of a Longfellow.
