Jay’s Note: I’m happy to present a unique addition to our preseason content, as one of the readers/commenters approached me about writing on the subject of “the Razzballer”. This story isn’t just unique to Webelos Willie, but to all of you as well, and maybe even the most human story I’ve ever read. Okay, maybe not to that degree, I’d probably give that award to L. Ron Hubbard’s “Battlefield Earth”, but regardless, this three-part series was such a great treat to read and because of that, I invite all fans of the site to tell us your story down in the comment section… How do you prepare for the upcoming season? How do you use Razzball? So, without further ado, here’s Webelos Willie’s Razzball story, and it just might be your story too…
Be sure to read Part 1 here!
When you enter a draft, here’s my advice for you in a nutshell:
Don’t panic.
If you were an unpopular kid growing up in the 80’s-90’s then you remember this phrase from “The Hitchhiker’s Guide To The Galaxy” books, computer game, movie or, if you are a huge nerd like me… all three. When it comes to a fantasy draft, this advice is easier said than done. We’ve all been there before: it’s your turn to pick and the two players you had queued up got snatched back-to-back right in front of you. You truly have no idea who you want. You’re scanning hitters, then pitchers, sorting by ADP, clicking players’ profiles to see their stats and all the while the clock is going tick… tick… tick. You realize you are starting to sweat and your “friends” sense it and begin saying things like: “Uh-oh, I think someone’s rattled” and “Remember last year when he reached for Josh Hamilton? HAHAHA!” You want to make a pick that doesn’t cause the room to erupt in laughter but there’s only 10 seconds left now on the clock so you wind up going with the highest ranked player telling yourself “those guys at ESPN do this for a living, they must know better than me.”
To quote the hip-hop group Souls of Mischief, that’s when ya lost.
As I said last week, there are three components to success in fantasy baseball. The first is: Time Invested. The second is: Skill. It takes skill to know who to draft and when to draft him. Or who to pick up and who to drop. Or who to play and who to bench. There is a reason why some people are good at this game and some aren’t. It takes skill.
In today’s installment, I want to share how I prepare for a draft. I can’t understand how some people take a minute or longer to select a player, especially in the first few rounds. You should have already thought about who you want and what you will do if he gets taken. I never enter a draft without a plan. Last week I talked about how to start preparing a draft sheet. Now I will go into more detail. The first thing you must do is…
Deeply consider your league’s settings. Whatever rankings sheet you download from the internet may not be based on your league’s settings, so you will have to work to modify it. Does your league use QS or W? If you use QS, then bump up the pitchers on bad MLB teams – they may be lower down in the rankings because they are not expected to get many Wins. Do you include OBP or OPS? Most rankings don’t take those into account but are heavily weighing AVG, so bump up players who walk a lot or have high SLG. Does your league count holds? Better think about when you are willing to go after Tony Watson or Dellin Betances.
Study the Yahoo/ESPN/whatever site you use rankings. I feel like this is an underrated step. Why is this so important? Not because their rankings are gospel to me, but because they will influence the other owners in my draft whether they are aware of it or not. Sure, some will pre-rank their players. But most won’t. And so most will assume that Ben Revere at 89 (Yahoo) is a fair price, when in fact it is ludicrous when you can get Billy Burns at 156 or Delino DeShields at 386! So you are looking for VALUE based on these rankings. Picking Revere in the 8th round is NOT a good value when there are at least two OF’s like him who are ranked much later. Remember too that you could feel rattled at some point in the draft and feel tempted to fall into the “pick the highest ranked player” mentality. I study the rankings to know where NOT to step to avoid the landmines that a “pick the highest ranked player” mentality might get me. Because even if he is the highest ranked player in the draft you are in, it may be actually 100 picks away from where he would be drafted if you were using another site. Grey makes it easier for us by doing this work every season and posting how his rankings compare to ESPN and to Yahoo.
- Form your draft sheet. This sheet helps you plan things like whether you would want to take a second baseman in the 5th round or pass because you think a solid one will still be available in the 12th. So after making a column listing the exact number of each pick I will have, I jot down some players next to each number that I would want to target at those spots. Here is my actual draft sheet for a 12-team h2h redraft 6×6 (OPS & holds) league I am in where I have the #2 pick. Of course I can and will deviate from this if a player I didn’t expect to be available falls to me.
The Second Pick: GOLDSCHMIDT, assuming that Owner #1 takes Trout. I came to this decision after realizing that by the time I make my next pick at 23, most of the top 1b will be gone. Harper is the other player I am considering here, but this is a 3 OF league and there are a lot of OF’s I like who I see ranked between 150-250: Peralta (.893 OPS last year), Conforto (10th overall pick in the 2014 draft, Mets are saying he can hit LHP’s, did not seem at all overmatched in his debut last season), Parra (14 HR, 14 SB & .291 AVG before Coors? GIMME!), Grichuck, Piscotty, etc. I will wait a long time to fill at least 1-2 of my OF slots.
The 23rd Pick: Starting here and for every other pick I make, I look at what Owner #1 has on his team and try to guess who he is hoping to get with his back-to-back picks. If I can safely wait until after his two picks to take a player I want, I do. If I can possibly take a guy that he too was targeting, all the better. Since he already has an OF (Trout), and since there are probably a few available from the same tier (Blackmon, Springer. Marte) it would be foolish to draft an OF with this pick. Instead, I’m taking SALE if he makes it to me because I value him above other pitchers like Arrieta & Bumgarner. Grey and others would never take an SP this early. I only do if one that I like falls later than I think he should go. Getting Sale (or Kershaw or Scherzer, obviously) here fits the bill.
The 26th Pick: I need the best offensive player available here, so I’m grabbing an OF – Blackmon, Springer, Marte (in that order). Plus since I will be getting 1-3 OF’s late, it would be nice to have one bankable one.
The 47th Pick: FRAZIER is ranked 50 on Yahoo, so there’s a chance he makes it to me here. If so, I pounce. If he’s gone, I don’t draft a 3b here because it’s too early for Beltre, Seagar, etc.
The 50th Pick: I find DOZIER ranked anywhere from the 30’s to the 80’s on sites. Of course, AVG won’t be there but the rest of his stats will be. With an improving Twins lineup around him (Sano, Buxton, Byung-Ho Park) and in a ballpark that is surprisingly hitter friendly, I don’t know why Dozier is being ranked so low by some people. Yes, he had a poor second half the prior two seasons. Last I checked it’s a season-long game. Even with the slumps, his numbers were still there.
The 71st Pick: This is when the back end of my draft sheet informs the early part. Since there are so many OF I like later, I might bypass some decent ones available here knowing that I can get sleepers later. Here I take my 2nd SP, if someone from Lester-Gray-Hamels-Cueto is around (I have all ranked in the 60’s, so this would be good value. Plus I see a dropoff after this SP tier). Also, since this is an OPS redraft league, I’d consider ORTIZ here – great ballpark, lineup, OBP & SLG. I think there’s a good chance he goes out doing what he’s been doing all these years, Mariano style. I don’t like clogging my UTIL early though if I can help it. Seems like whenever I do that, there is a 1b or OF who falls really far and I am regretting picking up my UTIL earlier.
The 74th Pick: Grab a SS here from Tulo-Bogaerts-Seagar-Lindor (Did you know Lindor hit .366 in August-September?). But this brings me to one of my main reasons for this exercise: Lindor (112 Yahoo) or Seagar (105 Yahoo) might be a reach at this point in the draft (meaning they are ranked lower and may be available still for a while). It’s not that I never reach, I just want to know when I am, in fact, reaching. Here I think it is worth it because by the time I pick again at 95, all four of them may be gone and it gets fugly after this group. There aren’t any sleeper SS I really love in OPS leagues, but in 5×5 I would definitely give Katel Matre a look real late in a draft. He hit .283/.351/.402 in 57 games last year and is ranked 1091 in Yahoo.
The 95th Pick: This is the point in the draft where I will consider an elite closer (Jansen, Kimbrel, Davis). Not before. When the clock is ticking and you don’t know who to grab, it helps to have set those kind of boundaries for yourself. Chances are the “Big Three” are all gone by this point, but it is interesting to note that none of those closers finished in the top 5 for saves last season (nor did Chapman, who with his suspension falls out of the top 10 for me). I don’t think that sort of variance is worth a top 75 pick. It also tells me that I’d rather pick someone like Rosenthal, Giles or Familia here than one of The Big Three 20 picks earlier.
The 98th Pick: Around here, since I have to wait 21 picks before I pick again, I may grab one of my sleeper OF’s (Peralta-Parra-Conforto etc) even though they aren’t ranked for another 50-100 picks. While Conforto won’t get steals, I care more about OPS then SB, because OPS factors into more categories (AVG, RBI, Runs, HR).
The 119th Pick: I would not even think about taking a Holds guy yet but I mention it because some other owner may go for an elite one around here. There are always holds guys available as free agents. Always. I tend to target setup men very late in the draft, ones who have the 8th all to themselves. Instead, I’m probably grabbing another SP, like McCullers or Pineda.
So at this point my team would look something like:
C- (I will grab someone with my last pick. Not paying for Posey with my 2nd or 3rd round pick, scared of Schwarber’s sophomore slump and the rest are basically all the same).
1b – Paul Goldschmidt 2nd overall.
2b – Brian Dozier 50th overall.
SS – Tulo/Bogaerts/Seagar/Lindor 74th overall.
3b – Todd Frazier 47th overall.
OF – Blackmon/Springer/Marte 26th overall.
OF – Peralta/Parra/Conforto 98th overall.
OF – another from above tier or Grichuck/Piscotty 150th or so.
UTIL – David Ortiz 71st overall* (Or OF from Peralta/Parra/Conforto/Grichuck/Piscotty at 122 overall).
SP – Chris Sale 23rd overall.
SP – Lester/Gray/Hamels/Cueto 71st overall*.
SP – McCullers/Pineda 119th overall.
RP – Closer 95th overall.
From this point on, it’s all SP’s and RP’s for me. I like to grab an extra closer or two and try to trade them in the first couple weeks of the season. I also load up on SP, to the point that I can comfortably bench one if I don’t like his matchup or if I am holding a close lead in ERA/WHIP. I want to get something from every player on my roster, and if a hitter is on the bench, I’m not getting anything from him. So I prefer an extra SP to a bench bat.
Not every pick above would work out. But I feel good about the value of taking each player where I would take him, and with the overall team that this draft sheet would produce.
Next week: The third component to fantasy success!
