When does a fad become a trend, and a trend the new standard? Whether it’s fashion, politics, music, movies, language or style, the shift from perception to reality advances faster and faster. In baseball, how fast does that timeline shift for a player? How long do we need to realize that a player’s stats are the new norm and not a flash in the pan? 50 at bats? 100 at bats? 2 months? Of course, there’s always the risk of regression, like the 80’s being totally back in style, but there are other things from the past that just won’t come back. Or at least we all better hope they don’t. Like Jnco. Haha, that used to be cool?
There’s been a trend so far in the 2016 season that I’m hoping becomes the new norm for some players. Patience. A new wave of players are taking jumps forward this year in large part to an increased walk rate. If you search the MLB leaders in walk rate you’ll find guys that had no business being there in years past. Dexter Fowler, Gregory Polanco, Christian Yelich, and Colby Rasmus (more on him later) are all in the Top 12 for BB% with all but Fowler more than doubling their previous high mark. You know those names. You probably own some of those names. But if you look at the top of that leaderboard you’ll find a name that you probably don’t own. And maybe you should, because I think his shift will actually stick as a new standard. Who’s creeping?
- Odubel Herrera, OF (11%) – “I just wish he still had SS eligibility!” That’s the first thought that runs through my head every time I look at Odubel Herrera on the waiver wire, but as we approach Week 4 and Odubel approaches 100 at bats, the time for gathering reasons of why not to pick him up are beginning to cease. He’s always been a runner, and it’s that speed that’s allowed him to carry a .356 OBP through his first 165 MLB games, but he did it with just a 7% walk rate. That number’s about to skyrocket. In 2016 he’s coupling his speed with incredible patience to the tune of an MLB leading 22.1% BB rate. He’s The Speed Walker! After Saturday’s monster line (3-4, 4R, 1HR, 2RBI, 2SB) Herrera is proving himself more than worthy of roster consideration; he’s cracked the Top 100 and I don’t know if he’ll be leaving any time soon. Owned at just 11% in ESPN leagues heading into Sunday’s games (a number that will most likely jump by the time you’re reading this), Odubel’s a great option for those of you putting struggling bigger name OFs in your lineup every day. Still. Here’s looking at you, Carlos Gomez. Geez. Odubel’s young enough (24 yo) and is playing with enough production where he’ll easily hit his end-of-season numbers from 557 ABs in 2015, and most likely surpass them. Get him now before April ends and he’s not available anymore.
Enough creepin…we have a NEW #1! Here’s your Top 100 Hitters for Week 4!
The Top 100 Hitters
Rank | Name | Pos | Team |
---|---|---|---|
1 | Bryce Harper | OF | WAS |
2 | Mike Trout | OF | LAA |
3 | Paul Goldschmidt | 1B | ARI |
4 | Josh Donaldson | 3B | TOR |
5 | Nolan Arenado | 3B | COL |
6 | Manny Machado | 3B | BAL |
7 | Jose Altuve | 2B | HOU |
8 | Carlos Correa | SS | HOU |
9 | Anthony Rizzo | 1B | CHC |
10 | Andrew McCutchen | OF | PIT |
11 | Giancarlo Stanton | OF | MIA |
12 | Edwin Encarnacion | 1B | TOR |
13 | Kris Bryant | 3B | CHC |
14 | Jose Bautista | OF | TOR |
15 | Mookie Betts | OF | BOS |
16 | George Springer | OF | HOU |
17 | Chris Davis | 1B | BAL |
18 | Nelson Cruz | OF | SEA |
19 | Starling Marte | OF | PIT |
20 | Miguel Cabrera | 1B | DET |
21 | J.D. Martinez | OF | DET |
22 | Jose Abreu | 1B | CWS |
23 | Justin Upton | OF | DET |
24 | Buster Posey | C | SF |
25 | David Ortiz | DH | BOS |
26 | Joey Votto | 1B | CIN |
27 | Carlos Gonzalez | OF | COL |
28 | Jason Heyward | OF | CHC |
29 | Ryan Braun | OF | MIL |
30 | Dee Gordon | 2B | MIA |
31 | Yasiel Puig | OF | LAD |
32 | Lorenzo Cain | OF | KC |
33 | Yoenis Cespedes | OF | NYM |
34 | Gregory Polanco | OF | PIT |
35 | Albert Pujols | 1B | LAA |
36 | Ian Kinsler | 2B | DET |
37 | Adrian Gonzalez | 1B | LAD |
38 | Charlie Blackmon | OF | COL |
39 | Xander Bogaerts | SS | BOS |
40 | Adam Jones | OF | BAL |
41 | Robinson Cano | 2B | SEA |
42 | Todd Frazier | 3B | CWS |
43 | Miguel Sano | DH | MIN |
44 | Brian Dozier | 2B | MIN |
45 | Matt Carpenter | 3B | STL |
46 | Eric Hosmer | 1B | KC |
47 | Freddie Freeman | 1B | ATL |
48 | Adrian Beltre | 3B | TEX |
49 | Brandon Belt | 1B | SF |
50 | Troy Tulowitzki | SS | TOR |
51 | Francisco Lindor | SS | CLE |
52 | Maikel Franco | 3B | PHI |
53 | Jason Kipnis | 2B | CLE |
54 | Prince Fielder | DH | TEX |
55 | Kyle Seager | 3B | SEA |
56 | Matt Kemp | OF | SD |
57 | Hanley Ramirez | OF | BOS |
58 | Joc Pederson | OF | LAD |
59 | David Peralta | OF | ARI |
60 | Adam Eaton | OF | CWS |
61 | Christian Yelich | OF | MIA |
62 | Corey Seager | SS | LAD |
63 | Stephen Piscotty | OF | STL |
64 | Evan Longoria | 3B | TB |
65 | Dexter Fowler | OF | CHC |
66 | Anthony Rendon | 2B | WAS |
67 | Hunter Pence | OF | SF |
68 | Brian McCann | C | NYY |
69 | Gerardo Parra | OF | COL |
70 | Mark Trumbo | OF | BAL |
71 | Carlos Gomez | OF | HOU |
72 | DJ LeMahieu | 2B | COL |
73 | Daniel Murphy | 2B/3B | WAS |
74 | Kendrys Morales | DH | KC |
75 | Corey Dickerson | OF | TB |
76 | Starlin Castro | SS | NYY |
77 | Trevor Story | SS | COL |
78 | Tyler White | 3B | HOU |
79 | Brett Gardner | OF | NYY |
80 | Delino Deshields, Jr. | OF | TEX |
81 | Travis Shaw | 3B | BOS |
82 | Jonathan Lucroy | C | MIL |
83 | Kole Calhoun | OF | LAA |
84 | Colby Rasmus | OF | HOU |
85 | Jay Bruce | OF | CIN |
86 | Mark Teixeira | 1B | NYY |
87 | Jean Segura | SS | ARI |
88 | Lucas Duda | 1B | NYM |
89 | Jacoby Ellsbury | OF | NYY |
90 | Eugenio Suarez | SS | CIN |
91 | Brandon Crawford | SS | SF |
92 | Odubel Herrera | OF | PHI |
93 | Shin-Soo Choo | OF | TEX |
94 | Ben Zobrist | OF | CHC |
95 | Nomar Mazara | OF | TEX |
96 | Rougned Odor | 2B | TEX |
97 | Melvin Upton, Jr. | OF | SD |
98 | Michael Conforto | OF | NYM |
99 | Steven Souza, Jr. | OF | TB |
100 | Brandon Phillips | 2B | CIN |
Dropped from Rankings: Carlos Santana (77), Ian Desmond (89), Jeremy Hazelbaker (94)
- We have to address the change at the top. It’s time we anoint Bryce Harper as the best player in baseball. Mike Trout’s done nothing wrong, but Harper’s ascension is in full bloom, and he’s proving that his MVP 2015 was no fluke. He’s 9th in R, 1st in HR, 1st in RBI while hitting .314. The only player this year close to his value is Jose Altuve, who is rising fast himself. Also creeping up on Trout? Manny Machado. Baseball’s youth movement is a glorious thing.
- I was this close to dropping Colby Rasmus from the rankings. I honestly don’t believe in him, but then he went and dropped three bombs in three days to tie Harper and others for the MLB lead in the category, all while accumulating 8 RBI in that three day bender. He’s going to be streaky, and probably won’t hit above .260 the rest of the way, but the stats aren’t lying: he’s been really good. And maybe he’s changed? 14 BB to balance the 15 K mirrors what Odubel is doing. Hopefully it keeps up.
- That little patch in the middle features five guys I dropped quite a bit in the rankings. Here’s the reasoning: Blackmon’s toe injury worries me since a lot of his value is tied to his speed, Jones hasn’t been himself in well over a year, this is probably a more accurate ranking of Cano, and I’m afraid Frazier just isn’t that good. Care to disagree?
Drop those comments!