Cade Horton: Up-And-Coming Dynasty Player

Welcome back, friends. After taking a week off to play the role of dad and send my child off to college, I am back and ready to talk about Cade Horton.

One of the top athletes in the high school class of 2020, Horton was a two-way star at Norman High School. Determined to play college football and baseball for the Oklahoma Sooners, Horton – despite his talent – he went undrafted in the shortened five round 2020 draft.

A 6-foot-1 right-hander, Horton never saw any time at quarterback for the Sooners and missed the 2021 baseball season after undergoing Tommy John surgery in February of 2021. He returned in 2022 and struggled during the regular season before finding his groove in the postseason to lead Oklahoma to a second-place finish in the College World Series. He was then drafted in the first round with the seventh overall pick by the Cubs and now is a key member of the starting rotation.

Let’s examine why Cade Horton is an up-and-coming dynasty player.

Career Statistics

Road to the Show

As I mentioned, Cade Horton helped lead the Sooners to the College World Series in 2022, but no one thought that was going to be the case as he entered the postseason with a 7.94 ERA. But during the Big 12 Tournament he fine tuned some pitches, especially his slider, and paired that pitch with his fastball to dominate opposing hitters.

Horton did not pitch in the minor league system after signing with Chicago, as the team didn’t want to push him, as he was still basically coming off the TJ surgery. But the wait was worth it. Pitching across three levels in 2023, Horton had a 3.26 ERA and 0.996 WHIP, walking fewer than three batters per nine innings while posting an 11.9 K/9 rate.

His 2024 season was limited to nine games as he suffered a subscapular strain on his right side and then had a setback during his recovery. But he bounced back to start the year with a 1.214 ERA and 0.862 WHIP in six starts at Triple-A, leading the Cubs to add him to the roster and insert him into the starting rotation on May 10.

Hitting his Stride

Since his promotion, Cade Horton has been more than solid. He posted a 3.98 ERA and 1.23 WHIP in May before hitting a road bump in June with a 5.47 ERA and 1.622 WHIP. But since the start of July, he has been outstanding. He had a 1.52 ERA and 1.056 WHIP in June and a 0.72 ERA and 0.76 WHIP in August.

In his last nine starts overall, he is 5-2 with a 1.11 ERA and 0.904 WHIP. Over his 48.2 innings of work, he has struck out 44 hitters while giving up only 29 hits and 15 walks, and in August, he allowed only two runs in 25 innings of work while striking out 27.

The Tools

• Fastball (50% usage)

Coming out of college, Horton’s fastball was given a 60 grade, and his average velocity of 95.6 mph ranks in the 70th percentile. Horton uses his fastball to set up his breaking pitches, but he has good success throwing it as opponents have only a .287 average and .380 SLG against the fastball. While the pitch has decent velocity, it has no movement as it averages zero inches of horizontal movement and 16 inches of drop. The MLB average is 8 inches and 15 inches of drop. Thus, the pitch has produced only a 15% whiff rate.

While he doesn’t generate a lot of strikeouts with the pitch, he does a good job of throwing it for strikes, throwing it in the zone 65% of the time.

• Sweeper (21% usage)

The sweeper is a pitch Horton has developed since turning pro. Coming out of college, his slider was considered his best pitch, given a 70 grade. But with the Cubs, Horton’s slider is an afterthought as he has turned to the sweeper.

There is a really good reason for this – it is a heck of a pitch for him. Thrown at an average speed of 83.6 mph, batters have only a .195 average against the pitch with a .402 slugging percentage. Even more impressive is the 39.6% Whiff% Horton has with the pitch.

The sweeper plays off well with his fastball as it averages nearly 13 inches of horizontal break toward first base. Conversely, he then uses his third favorite pitch, the changeup, to counteract the sweeper and fastball.

• Changeup (13% usage)

Thrown about eight miles per hour slower than his fastball, Horton has produced a 50.5% whiff rate with his changeup. While his sweeper breaks hard away from right-handed hitters, his changeup breaks an average of 13 inches into righties, or away from left-handed hitters. The result is a .098 batting average against the pitch with a microscopic .122 slugging percentage.

• Curveball (10% usage)/Sinker (5% usage)/Slider (0.3% usage)

While Horton relies mostly on his fastball, sweeper, and change, he still shows his curveball 10 percent of the time and sprinkles in the occasional sinker and slider, though you can basically say he has thrown the slider out of his repertoire, as he has thrown it only four times all season.

The curve is actually a solid pitch for Horton. Hitters have only a .184 batting average against the pitch with a .211 SLG to go with a 28.6% whiff rate.

The Verdict

Is Cade Horton a perfect pitcher? No, at least not yet. His xERA and xBA are average, ranking in the 50th and 55th percentile. His average EV ranks in the 45th percentile, while his strikeout percentage ranks in the 33rd percentile and his barrel percentage ranks in the 16th percentile.

Those numbers suggest Horton is average. But he’s not, as he’s learning his craft on the major league level. Due to having Tommy John surgery in college, Horton threw only 53.2 inning for the Sooners before turning pro. Since signing with the Cubs, Horton has proven to be an advanced pitcher.

He mixes his pitches well and keeps hitters off balance while throwing strikes above the MLB average (51.9% vs. 49.9% by the rest of MLB pitchers). Of the 697 pitches Horton has thrown, batters have swung and missed 189 of them (27.1%), above the MLB average of 25%. That whiff percentage ranks in the 66th percentile.

His chase percentage ranks in the 56th percentile, and his hard hit percentage ranks in the 56th percentile. What is really impressive is his ground ball rate, ranking in the 68th percentile. Opposing hitters hit the ball on the ground 45.6% of the time against Horton, compared to the MLB average of 41.4%.

He has come in and solidified the Cubs’ starting rotation, probably to the point that a potential move to the back of the bullpen in the future is now out of the question.

Depending on the platform your league is in, Horton is either widely available or somewhat available. In Yahoo leagues, he is rostered on 60% of team. However, in ESPN leagues, he is rostered on only 30% of teams. With pitching being so hard to find, if Horton is available, you should snatch him up and then keep him for years to come.

Thanks for reading, and come back again next week.