Justin Upton was one of this offseason’s prized free agents, and with good reason. He’s shown the ability to hit for power (.200+ ISO and 26+ homers in each of the last three seasons), get on base (.348 career OBP), and even steal a few bags (18 or more SBs in five out of the last seven seasons). At 28 years old, the odds were pretty good that there were still a few productive seasons left in the tank. The Detroit Tigers pounced on the fresh meat and decided to lavish a six year, $132.75 million contract upon Upton in January. Thus far, the carcass of this Upton has been more rancid than the ones described by Upton Sinclair in his novel The Jungle over a century ago. J-Up has managed to produce a measly .213/.259/.319 batting line with just 3 home runs, 1 stolen base, 22 runs, and 11 RBI through the first two months of the season. Eduardo Nunez and Coco Crisp have hit more homers. Renowned speedsters Buster Posey and Mike Napoli have swiped more bags. Backup catchers David Ross and Bobby Wilson have driven in more runs in a fraction of the at-bats. Umm… what in the blue hell is going on here? Is Upton washed up already? Is there any hope for a turnaround?
Let’s take a look at Upton’s profile to see if there’s hope for a rebound. Here are a few observations:
• His walk and strikeout rates are awful. There’s no way to sugarcoat this. Upton has looked completely lost at the plate this season. His current 6.0% BB% would represent a career low, and his 36.3% K% would easily be a career worst mark for him. In fact, Upton is currently striking out at the highest rate in MLB. While he improved his walk rate from April to May (3.0% to 9.2%), his strikeout rate has remained sky high (38.4% in April; 34.7% in May). Perhaps an even bigger concern is the fact that…
• His power has disappeared. Through the first third of the season, Upton’s .106 ISO ranks 152nd out of 179 qualified hitters and trails players such as Jon Jay and Didi Gregorius. His average flyball distance of 281.30 ft ranks 146th in MLB and continues it’s steady decline from 285.67 ft in 2015 and 299.82 ft in 2014. One positive thing to acknowledge is the fact that his current 5.8% HR/FB is well below his career average (14.6%), so that number is likely to correct itself somewhat in the near future, even when factoring in the decline in FB distance. It’s especially discouraging that Upton hasn’t been able to compensate for this declining power production on the basepaths since…
• He doesn’t seem interested in running anymore. Upton has attempted to steal a base just once all season. While it’s natural for a player’s speed to decline quickly (even a 28 year old’s), a big factor here is likely his poor on-base skills (.259 OBP) this season. However, his 3.4 speed score and 0.3 UBR (Ultimate Base Running) rating are well below league average, indicating that he may have lost a step. Regardless, it’s impossible to steal bases without attempting to do so, and Upton seems content with running less at this point in his career. Another thing that’s worth mentioning is the fact that…
• Luck hasn’t played much of a part in his early results. It’s easy to look at Upton’s .213 batting average and assume that balls just haven’t been falling in for him, but that doesn’t seem to be the case. His .327 BABIP actually represents his second highest mark since 2011, which might be somewhat fortunate considering the facts that his hard hit percentage (32.8%) is down while his soft hit percentage (23.3%) is up this year.
Bottom line: To say that Upton has been a disappointment this year would be an understatement. He’s not hitting for power or average, getting on base, or displaying the same speed that he’s shown in recent years. It would be easy to assume that a player with his talent and track record would turn things around at some point, especially considering his age and supporting cast in Detroit. The natural adjustment period to a new league, a new park, and unfamiliar pitchers shouldn’t be overlooked either. Unfortunately, Upton hasn’t shown the ability to make those adjustments, and his numbers continue to trend in the wrong direction. While something like a .245/20/7 pace could be reasonably expected over the remainder of the season, anything more than that might be unrealistic. Sell low if possible and avoid otherwise.
Final Verdict:
