Prior to the 2016 season, Brad Miller had been viewed as something of a tweener – an average defensive shortstop at best whose offensive potential never quite translated into consistent production at the MLB level. The Seattle Mariners finally grew tired of Miller’s inconsistency and lack of improvement and traded him away in a six player deal to the Tampa Bay Rays this offseason. For the first few months of the season, Miller looked like the same player that he was during the majority of his stint in Seattle, producing a .241/.288/.459 batting line with 35 runs, 14 homers, 32 RBI, and 4 steals in the first half (312 plate appearances). Since the All-Star Break, Miller has looked like a completely different player, producing a .305/.385/.656 line with 24 runs, 11 homers, 30 RBI, and 2 steals in just 148 plate appearances. So what in the world is going on here? Has Miller finally reached his offensive potential or has it merely been a strong month and a half for him?
Let’s take a look at Miller’s profile to determine if his recent surge is just a blip in the radar or a sign of things to come. Here are a few thoughts and observations:
• He’s hitting the ball in the air more often. More specifically, Miller is trading a large chunk of ground balls for line drives. While his fly ball percentage has increased by 1.7% (from 35.1% to 36.8%) from the first half of the season to the second, he’s cut his ground ball percentage by more than 10% (from 49.1% to 38.9%) while his line drive percentage has increased a whopping 8.4% (from 15.8% to 24.2%) during that same time period. With all of these extra line drives, it stands to reason that…
• He’s hitting the ball harder than ever. Miller’s hard hit percentage has increased from 31.8% in the first half to 39.0% in the second half, a 7.2% improvement. He’s also cut his infield fly ball rate from a respectable 9% to an impressive 5.7% over span as well, indicating that his quality of contact has improved across the board. A big reason for these improved results seems to be the fact that…
• He’s added a leg kick to increase his power production. Miller has tweaked his batting stance this season so that he’s a bit more closed and his bat begins in a more upright position than in previous years, but the change that’s made the biggest difference for him has been the leg kick that he’s added to his approach. It’s given him more time to see the ball and allowed him to drive the ball more effectively to all fields. This ability to see the ball for an extra split second might help to explain why…
• He’s been more patient than ever. Miller has always had solid plate discipline, especially for a young player (as his career 8.2% BB% shows), but his walk rate dipped to just 6.4% during the first half of this season. Since implementing the changes to his approach at the plate, his walk rate has jumped to 10.1% during the second half. This more patient approach has led to a slightly higher strikeout rate (K% has jumped from 22.1% to 24.3%), but the improved power and on-base skills seems to be worth the tradeoff thus far.
Bottom line: With a few small tweaks to his batting stance and overall approach to hitting, Miller has transformed himself from a moderate, inconsistent power/speed threat into a full blown slugger. While I’m not sure that he should be penciled in for 30+ homers a year moving forward, he seems to be a solid bet for totals in the mid-20s, especially since the 26 year old is in the midst of his prime power years. The 1B/SS/OF eligibility is pretty sweet as well. Enjoy the power and the counting stats from the Rays unexpected new cleanup hitter.
Final Verdict:
