George R. R. Martin described the White Walkers (the Others) in Game of Thrones as “tall…and gaunt and hard as old bones, with flesh pale as milk.” They were intimidating, powerful, and ruthless. Oh, how I miss thee, Game of Thrones! Except for the last season. That was trash, especially how the Night King in particular died. Anyways, Christian Walker of the Arizona Diamondbacks is 6′ 0″ 220 pounds, white, and is among the league leaders in hard hit rate and barrel percentage. He had a great week before the All-Star festivities but is only owned in 22.1% of ESPN leagues. Should we put our faith in this Christian?
Walker is 28 years old. He began his professional career with the Baltimore Orioles before he was eventually claimed off waivers by the Diamondbacks in 2017, when he put up .309/.382/.597 32 HR, 104 R, 114 RBI, and 5 SB with a 10.3% walk rate and 17.6% strikeout rate in Triple-A. That is pretty, pretty good.
As for major league experience, he accrued 19 plate appearances in 2014, 12 PA in 2015, 15 PA in 2017, and 53 PA last season. So this will be Walker’s first full season. He’s clubbed 17 home runs, scored 46 runs, driven in 45, and stolen 5 bases with an 8.9% walk rate, 28% strikeout rate, .240 ISO, and .263 batting average. Those numbers don’t tell the whole story, though.
Walker came out of the gates scorching hot, as he batted .307 with a .307 ISO, which translated to 7 home runs. The hard hit rate was 69.1%!!!! But the BABIP was .393, so some regression was due to hit. And boy did it hit. In May, the average plummeted to .208 and the ISO cratered to .167. Life comes at you fast. And life is cyclical because since June 1st, Walker has hit 7 home runs with a .271 batting average and .243 ISO. Is this just normal variance in baseball or have there been noticeable differences to explain the fluctuations?
If we look at the monthly BABIP numbers, they have gone from .393 to .283 to .306. The first month was obviously unsustainable. As a result, I will break things down into two sections: May versus June/July, with the notion that April represents a ceiling.
The walk rate has ticked up 1% while the strikeout rate has plummeted 7%. The GB/FB rate has remained the same, but the line drive rate has gone from 27% to 12.7%, while the pull rate has gone from 41.3% to 30.4%. The plate discipline numbers are similar except for the chase rate, which has increased from 25.6% to 32.9%. Things that make you go hmmmmm…..
The only explanation I can think of is that pitchers were attacking him differently. In May, the fastball usage was 58.9%, while it ticked down to 55.1% in June/July. Correspondingly, the changeup usage went from 5% to 11.3%. But, Son, May was Walker’s worst month. Why would pitchers go away from what was working? No idea grasshopper. Maybe it’s a case of getting too cute. I think that he knows that I’m going to throw this pitch, so because he thinks he knows, I will throw this other pitch to make him think about why he thinks he knows.
I feel optimistic regarding Walker because of the above paragraph. He’s proven that he can handle the heat. Now, he’s shown that he can be successful against the changeup. In addition, he’s an older prospect (can I call him a prospect anymore?), so there’s a bit more maturity and experience than a bright-eyed rookie. Plus, although the overall strikeout rate is approaching 30%, the swinging strike rate isn’t exhorbitant (13.3%) and he’s not just flailing away at pitches.
Looking at the splits, he is much better against right-handed pitching. .264 vs .179 ISO and .364 vs .309 wOBA. The NL West does have plenty of lefties, so that could be an issue, but he will still face more righties.
What puts shade on everything, though, is that the Steamer rest-of-season projections have Walker down as the 52nd first baseman going forward. The machines are smarter than me, so I will usually give their info tons of weight. It does make sense, especially since the division is littered with pitchers ballparks and staffs that are very good. Because of that, and the dreaded machine, I reluctantly will label Walker with the Bear Label, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he is resurrected and brings fantasy glory for at least some patch of time in the future.
VERDICT
