For this week, I thought I would focus on some potential waiver wire adds in shallow leagues. Below, I’ve discussed three names that are being added at a high rate in deeper leagues like Fantrax and NFBC, but what about the types of leagues that most fantasy managers play? Can these guys be a help in a 12-team or below?
I’ll take a look at several factors, including playing time, lineup spot, and underlying data, to try to get a better picture.
Note: Position eligibility listed below is based on NFBC standards. Other leagues may vary slightly from that eligibility, and if you play in a Yahoo league, you can probably add like 3 more positions. Be sure to check position eligibility in your particular league just to make sure.
1. Gabriel Arias, 2B/3B, CLE – Roster percentages: CBS: 41%, ESPN: 12.3%, Fantrax: 50%, Yahoo: 19%
Gabriel Arias is having a dream season compared to his previous 191 games (over parts of 3 seasons in Cleveland). His current statline of a .271 AVG, 4 HR, 10 R, 10 RBI, and 1 SB (as of end of day on 4/22/25) makes him look like a real contributor. Is he a good add for your team? Let’s take a look:
Playing time and lineup spot:
He’s playing almost every day, so he’s in good shape there.
Arias started out the season hitting 8th but is now more consistently hitting in the 6 or 7 hole. On April 23rd, he’s scheduled to bat in the 2 hole and has also hit 4th and 5th once each over the last 8 days. Things are moving in the right direction for Arias to have some impact through PT and piling up PAs with a good spot near the top of the Cleveland batting order.
Underlying data:
The good: Arias does have a couple of positive changes. His BB% has increased from a terrible 3.7% in 2024 to a quite bad 6.5% so far in 2025. With that, his BABIP is up slightly but not in a way that looks terribly unsustainable. His K% has dipped from a gross 32.9% to a merely really bad 28.6%. His O-Swing% has also improved – by over 10% so far. Not swinging at pitches outside the zone could be an indicator of some plate discipline gains.
His HH% has jumped up over 4% to 40.8%, his Barrel% has jumped over 4% to 12.2%, and his FB% has jumped (you guessed it) by over 4% to 29.2%. The number that stands out to me the most, though, is his increase in pull rate: from 37.6% in 2024 to 46.9% so far this year. Theoretically, hitting the ball harder to his pull field would allow for his mid-level power to have more impact – pulling the ball down the line might allow him to sneak out a few more HRs. Surprisingly, though, he seems to be hitting the ball out to the opposite field: he has 3 HRs to dead RF and one HR just to the right of dead center. Regardless of where he’s hitting the ball in the field, his xSLG is at a healthy .468 (considering his career high SLG is .325), so maybe the power gains are sort of real.
The bad: The rest of Arias’s underlying data is scary.
His EV and maxEV have both dropped, not significantly, but still. His LD% has cratered: down from 23.8% to 8.3%. Yikes. His GB% is up by over 10%, which isn’t great because he isn’t super fast (27.3 ft/s). I love that he’s hitting the ball harder, but hitting the ball harder on the ground has a chance to keep his AVG gains in place, not much else.
His plate discipline is the kind of stuff that horror movies are written about. Z-Contact% is down from an already bad 72.9% to, ugh, 65.8%. His Contact% follows suit, down over 5% to 57.3%. His CSW is at 32.4%. You do not want any of these numbers in a player you’re depending on.
As a result of some of these trouble spots, although his wOBA currently sits at .352, his xwOBA is .324 (which is ok, but not exactly impactful). His xBA is .232, which is pretty much right in line with his AVG the last couple of years.
The verdict: I think Arias is on a really nice heater, and there’s nothing wrong with trying to benefit from a hot streak if you want to try to roster him. But if you’re looking for real changes that look like he’s in the midst of a breakout, the data doesn’t look very promising. I would expect that, a month from now, Arias will look a lot like the Arias of last year (when he hit .222 with 3 HRs and 5 SBs over 161 PAs). Those types of numbers will add up to some helpful counting stats over the course of a full season, as long as you can stomach the AVG hit.
2. Jose Caballero, 2B/3B/SS/OF, TAM – Roster percentages: CBS: 41%, ESPN: 9.3%, Fantrax: 67%, Yahoo: 13%
Jose Caballero is also off to a really nice start based on his surface stats: .310 AVG, 1 HR, 6 R, 9 RBI, and 5 SB in only 49 PAs (through end of day on 4/22/25). Caballero has been a favorite of mine for a couple of years now because his multiple position eligibility can be a huge advantage in deep leagues. But is he a help in a more shallow league?
Playing time and lineup spot:
Caballero is playing more often now than he was early in the season, but he’s still sat 4 of the last 8 games (he is currently listed in the lineup on 4/23). And while he has hit as high as 5th in the Tampa order, he’s usually in one of the bottom 3 spots. That kind of PT and that low of a spot in the order do not bode well for piling up PAs.
Underlying data:
The good: He is walking significantly more, increasing his BB% from a not great 5.6% to a much nicer number of 14.9%. There is no question he is fast – his foot speed checks in at 28 ft/s, which ranks him in the top quarter of MLB players. Not bad. He has increased his EV slightly, from bad (83.7) to slightly less bad (84.1). His LA is up 2° – though I’m not sure we would want someone who hits the ball that softly, lofting the ball at 17.9°.
While all of those changes are negligible, he does have 4 big changes that we can hope might be a precursor of good things: LD% up from 23.3% to 36.4%, Z-Contact% up from 82.9% to 91.4%, Contact% up from 72.8% to 79.7%, and O-Swing% way down from 34.5% to 19.3%. If any of these changes in plate discipline can stick, that’s great news. Caballero has been a consistently mediocre to plain bad hitter for his first two seasons at the MLB level, so any improvement there is much needed.
The bad: And that’s because his other plate discipline numbers are less than great. His K% is currently at 36.2%. I don’t even know what to say about a number that large. Guys with that kind of K rate don’t make it very long in this league. His CSW% is slightly better, but still bad at 26.6%. The real problem is that, even with all the striking out, he isn’t hitting the ball with authority when he does make contact – he’s just striking out with nothing really to show for it. Not good.
His GB% is down to an unsustainably low 13.6%. For someone with his speed, hitting the ball on the ground isn’t terrible – he can get on base that way, and that’s probably his best bet as a hitter. He has increased his FB% over 13% to 50%, which would be fine if he hit the ball hard.
And to finish off the sadness, his x stats say he’s going to crash and burn soon: xwOBA at .267, xBA at .217, xSLG at .315. These are terrible numbers.
The verdict: Caballero has been a plus base stealer for a few years, and that’s what he offers now. As with Arias, if you want to ride the hot streak, by all means. I hope it works. But if you’re picking him up for anything other than his speed and ability to get you some steals, you’re probably going to be disappointed.
3. Luisangel Acuna, 2B/SS, NYM – Roster percentages: CBS: 28%, ESPN: 4%, Fantrax: 56%, Yahoo: 8%
Of the three players in this article, Luisangel Acuna is the one who interests me the most. He isn’t a slam dunk, but there are things I definitely like about his game. But is there enough goodness to roster him in your league?
Playing time and lineup spot:
Acuna’s playing time has been inconsistent as the Mets have been alternating him and Brett Baty at 2B (Baty has 12 starts to Acuna’s 13). Surely, though, this arrangement isn’t going to last too much longer. Baty has been borderline unplayable, while Acuna is definitely showing some promise. But Jeff McNeil is also on his way back to the lineup, so Acuna’s PT certainly isn’t guaranteed. When Acuna does play, his lineup spot has been in the bottom three in the order. Yeah, so maybe this part isn’t great…
Underlying data:
The good: Acuna’s EV and maxEV are roughly in line with Gabriel Arias’s. Decent, but not world-beating. But at an EV of 89, potential power is in the bat. His HH% is down a bit from last year’s extremely small sample, but 37.5% is fine. I suspect if he could get more consistency of playing time, this would go up. He currently has zero barrels, which will change as he gets locked in (if he gets that chance).
Unlike Arias and Caballero, Acuna doesn’t seem to be flailing blindly at the plate. His BB% is at 10.5%, and his K% is a completely respectable 19.3%. His Contact% is right at 80%, and his Z-Contact% is at 87.5%. His CSW% is at 22.7%. These all look great, and his xBA of .272 reflects that his AVG (currently .275) seems sustainable. Of the three players in this article, Acuna is your best bet for AVG.
And Acuna can flat-out fly. His foot speed of 29.5 ft/s puts him in the 98th percentile.
The bad: His O-Swing% of 33.3% brings all of his good-looking plate discipline metrics into question. It’s great that he’s effective at making contact, but if he keeps swinging outside the zone that often, I’m not sure how long he can keep up with the contact. That said, he generally runs with an O-Swing% of around 30, so maybe this is just how he works.
His x stats don’t really buy that Acuna is going to make something of this season: his xwOBA is an unimpressive .299, and his xSLG is a gross .316.
The verdict: I truly have no idea. Something doesn’t add up. He can hit the ball hard, but his power metrics don’t suggest he’s really started yet. He has plate discipline – except that he doesn’t.
But the eyeball test suggests the guy has raw tools that Arias and Caballero just don’t have. For now, I’m definitely picking up Acuna in the hopes that more playing time consistency will lead to the player I think is in there coming to the forefront. But at the very least, like Caballero, Acuna is no doubt a good source for speed. Maybe pick him up for steals and the potential of a decent AVG, and hope for the breakout.
So what have we learned? There has been buzz for all three of these players recently, and readers have asked me about their viability for smaller leagues. But the truth is… we may not be there yet with these guys. They all offer something, but you may decide they don’t offer enough unless you have very specific needs to fill. For head-to-head leagues, they can be a real help if you need a bump in a certain category, and I love Acuna as a stash. Otherwise, I’m probably passing on these guys.
re: Arias. Brito and Bazzana are tearing up Aaa/Aa respectily. might be on borrowed time. good article. appreciate the deep dive
That’s a good call on the Cleveland pipeline. Once Arias starts getting unlucky (and he will), it could all unravel quickly.