RCL Update: Now Streaming

RCL draft season is well under way now.  We’ve got about three drafts per day going off and the data is just flowing in.  Hopefully, you are all putting the ADP Spreadsheet to good use.  I see plenty of anonymous animals peeping it between seven and ten at night, so I think you are.

This week I wanted to briefly go over some notes on pitching in the RCLs.  I say briefly because this subject has been covered many times before, quite brucely, much more succinctly than I could cover it.  I’ll tell you young Razzballers a story, about where it all got started, way back in a time known as twelve after twenty, with Simply Fred.  Fred was on to something that only a few of the top RCLers at the time were on to and it started a revolution.  Rudy felt he could improve the process and the Stream-O-Nator was born!  The world hasn’t been the same since.  Finally, Rudy covered the importance of maximizing IP and how to value our streamers here.  That should be enough clickbait and reading to get you off to sleep tonight where visions of ERA, WHIP and K/9 will dance in your head.  If you’re feeling lazy though, I’ll give you the cliffsnotes version with a couple of my own notes.

First off, let’s go over the draft.  I wouldn’t leave an RCL draft with any more than 5 starting pitchers and 3-4 is preferred.  I am a stream-aholic so I tend to leave a draft with no more than 3 and sometimes 2 starting pitchers depending on how the draft fell.  Where you take those pitchers is almost equally important as how many you draft.  I’m not here to suggest that if you draft a pitcher in the first round, you’ll lose the league, but you’re not doing yourself any favors.  I typically target rounds 4-6 for my first and sometimes second SP.  I am fully aware of my streaming (in)abilities and I know that streaming will have an effect on my ratios, nailing down two SPs that will help those ratios is a must.  Doing so without leaving your offense inept is the real challenge.  The latest I would wait to grab my first starter would be round 8 or 9.  After that and you’re playing with fire and even then you’re going to have to hit on the starters you do roster and have them turn in solid seasons ala Jake Arrieta last year.

If you’re not into grabbing two starters in the 4-6 round range, then the 6th-7th is a prime spot for an elite relief pitcher to help those ratios and strikeout rate.  This is where Ken Giles is falling this year and I’m all over that.  The suspension of Aroldis Chapman has forced him down to this range and if you can swing a missing bench spot for month, that could turn a nice profit down the stretch.

The back end of the draft is all about relief pitchers and speculative saves.  This is especially true with early drafts, happening now, while jobs are in flux (PHI, TB, MIL).  If you can steal a closer before the season even starts, that’s gravy, and everyone loves gravy.

Essentially, if you can come out of the draft with some rough semblance of the 66/20/14 split (Hitters/Starters/Relievers) that Rudy recommends, you’ll be doing well.  My drafts tend to be a little more towards 70/15/15 or even 66/14/20.  As long as you recognize what you’ve got and have a plan, you’re much better off than most.

Once you’re in-season your ability to maximize your roster spots becomes directly tied to your success.  With only 3 bench spots, it is imperative to use them to their fullest.  Those three bench spots are your “swing” spots and can be used however is needed, depending on the day.  Don’t think of your team as having only 3 bench spots, think of the waiver wire as your rolling bench.

I almost always try to have a full hitting roster playing each day.  By default this means my three bench spots are almost always hitters, however if there’s a day when all my regular hitters are playing, I use those bench spots to swap in some relief pitchers.  In an ideal world you’ll have 8 RPs and a starter going almost everyday.  With relief pitchers I’m almost always looking for good ratios and K/9 studs.  I recommend turning on the K/9 stat when cruising the waiver wire.  ESPN allows you to customize the stats you see and sorting by K/9 is a great way to unearth some gems.  I also like to look for relievers that are getting stretched out to start as they might provide 3-4 “free” innings.  It’s always a bit of a guessing game when it comes to relief pitcher use, but generally don’t pick up a guy that has thrown back to back days and if a guy you’re holding does throw back to back days, you can relieve him of his duties on your roster.

About once every three weeks you should grab your league’s stats and check out your K/Games Started (GS).  I mentioned above I’m always looking at K/9 when grabbing RPs, but even more important for the league is your K/GS since you only have a finite number of GS, leading the league in this number goes a long way to winning strikeouts at the end of the day.  Shoot for around 8.5 K/GS and if you’re lagging, add an extra RP here and there and boost that value up.  This number is also handy if you have someone in your league that has a large lead in Games Started.  When someone has 20 or 30 more GS than the next manager it can skew the pitching stats and make it hard to tell where you stand.  K/GS is the great equalizer and a very important stat to keep in mind when making daily roster decisions.

Finally, when the time comes, you need to know your loopholes.  There has been many a heated discussion over the 188 GS, but the fact is, it’s there for the taking and you’re doing yourself a disservice if you don’t grab it.  Here’s the gist.  Just like Yahoo!’s Inning Pitched limit, the Games Started limit can be pushed.  On the day you go over each of these limits, all your stats for that day count towards your total.  So, once you hit 179 Games Started you can pick your spot to load up on 9 starters and hit 188 GS and pad your pitching stats.  Of course, pulling the trigger on this massive stat grab can have negative effects as well, so if you’re in a tight battle for ERA and/or WHIP, it may not be the best choice.

All of the decisions ultimately come down to where the most points can be gained.  It’s up to you to recognize your team needs and how they relate to the rest of the league.  If you’re running away with the pitching categories, cut back on your RPs and stream the heck out of SAGNOF delights and/or some all or nothing power plays.  If the opposite is true, keep those empty pitching slots filled with the nastiest middle relievers you can get your paws on.

DRAFT TRENDS

Speaking of relief pitchers, they are my target for today’s ADP chart.  This way you’ll be able to pinpoint just where to take your favorite closer.  The data is getting deep now with a ton of drafts this past week.  I’m also tossing in a chart with change in ADP data.  Thanks to a gentle nudge from RCL friend VinWins I included some new sheets in the ADP spreadsheet that break the ADP down by time frame.  Now you can grab the most recent week’s worth of ADP data so you can stay current on the latest trends.  Hope you enjoy.

WE DON’T NEED NO STINKIN’ NFBC ADP

We’ve got RCL ADP!  Here’s a list from our 38 league sample of some players whose ADPs I was curious about and some general notes.

With the Chapman suspension, Craig Kimbrel is the top closer in all the land.  Someone jumped up and nabbed him mid 4th round, which is something typically seen in stream-heavy leagues such as ECFBL.  I like the next group from Giles to Chapman however and that is likely the range I’ll be targeting for my first closer.  I feel like Papelbon in the mid-12th round might provide some decent value as well.  I like how Betances and Miller are right next to each other in ADP, that’s fitting.  However, I don’t understand why Betances would be ahead of Miller when Miller will be getting that saves sans Chapman.  Beats me.  It appears the RCLers have thrown their faith behind Drew Storen claiming the closer’s gig in Toronto.  There’s going to be a lot of unhappy drafters if somehow, someway Osuna can steal that job.  Finally, Steve Cishek is really a thing huh?  Weird.

RECENT TRENDS

Here we have a little chart showing some of the changes in ADP from early in the season to this past week.  The bigger the DIFF number the higher the player is currently being drafted and vice versa.

The bottom of the list is filled with spring training casualties, which makes sense.  However, the falling draft price of Byron Buxton doesn’t make much sense to me.  He’s dropped almost two full rounds and for his upside is an absolute steal at 192 overall.  I’m giddy for the chance to draft him that low.  I also have my eye on Anthony Rendon and his falling ADP.  I’m not quite as low on Rendon this year as Grey is and I love him falling past pick 100.  

Back up at the top of the list we have newly employed El Burro shooting up draft boards.  Speaking of donkeys, if you’ve stuck with me this long, I have a treat for you.  This past weekend I was enlightened to the existence of a wonderful sport, Donkey Baseball.  No, this is not the name of Adam Dunn’s family reunion softball game, this is baseball played on donkeys.  See for yourself.  You’re welcome.  I can’t wrap my mind around why this isn’t a more mainstream sport.  This really should be televised.

The recently freed Domingo Santana is climbing the ADP ladder as is Trevor Story who may see some time while Jose Reyes gets whatever he has coming to him.  Without Carter Capps breathing down his neck, AJ Ramos seems to be a safer choice for drafters.  I’m confused by the rise of Jorge Soler however.  Dexter Fowler’s signing threw me right off the Soler train, and I was sitting right next to the conductor before that.  I would have expected his ADP to drop two rounds, not raise two with that news.

I’ll bring this section back next week with the next week’s ADP data and see what other trends we can spot.  In the meantime, go join a league and add to that valuable draft data would ya?

TO JOIN A LEAGUE

Click the LINK in the ‘League Link’ column (see below grid) and enter the PASSWORD at ESPN. Emails are there for some leagues, but you shouldn’t need to email anyone.  You can join as many leagues as you like.

TO START A LEAGUE

Please create a league in ESPN based on the league rules reference above. Step by step: Hit Create. Then Create ESPN Custom (middle option), Name League, Change to 12 Teams, Restriction Type: None, Open to All Users, Access: change to Private, create Password, leave as Roto and Snake, Make Draft Date and Time, Create. From Default settings all you have to do is change to TWO DL SLOTS and 180 Starts by pitchers. So, you go to ROSTERS and Click “Edit Roster Settings.” There, change to 2 DL Slots and 180 Starts (the counter will change to 20.0 per slot). Then SUBMIT Roster Settings. Finally, Create Your League! (Important Note: Make sure league is viewable to public but requiring a password to avoid non-Razzballers joining.) When that’s finished, click here. You will be permissioned shortly so you can add your league info to the Google Doc (the below grid cannot be edited from this page). On that Google Doc, you will need to enter your name, league link, password and please UPDATE the number of openings as your league fills up. That’s it. Oh, and don’t use your bank account password. (Here’s a video Jay made to help some noobs.  Is noobs spelled with zeroes or oh’s?  Hmm, that might make me a noob at spelling noob.)  You can start as many leagues as you like.  If you start less than ten leagues, again someone could mock you.

Want to be Matt’s Twitter pal?  That’s kinda creepy, but you can follow himhere: @MattTruss