The 2026 Draft season has officially started! The Too-Early Meatball Draft went off on August 20th and, well, here is the draft board.

As to my expected risers, there was maybe some slight disappointment. Pete Crow-Arnstrong did not quite make it into the first round, though he just barely missed at Pick 18. James Wood also fell short of my expected pop (mid 2nd round). He went as the 3rd pick in the 3rd round. I WAYYYYY underestimated Roman Anthony’s draft slot. Rotowire Prospect Guru James Anderson (he deserves the all caps) took him at Pick 45. That feels right based on his actual limitless talent, but it’s a question of his Fantasy counting stats.

Of the honorable mention potential risers, Tyler Soderstrom got drafted in the 7th round, while Addison Barger and Jac Caglianone both went in the 11th and final round.

As to the inevitable fallers, well, they fell. Yordan Alvarez, who almost certainly will not get OF eligibility anywhere besides Yahoo next year, went in the 4th round. Yordan may lift over time if he comes back and plays well and then looks healthy in the Spring. Jackson Merrill, now on the IL in a pretty lost season, dropped to the 8th round, and Lawrence Butler cratered all the way to the 10th.

But hey, there were plenty of other interesting movers, so let’s dig in.

Risers

Jacob Marsee

The Marlins rookie was not a particularly highly rated prospect, but his plus speed with a hint of power really plays for our game. He went in the 10th round to the Dead Pull Hitter himself, Rob DiPietro. And it’s really easy to see why. He’s popped 4 homers and swiped 7 bags in just 19 games and 85 PA’s, to go along with 11 runs, 20 RBI’s and .338 BA. It’s obviously REALLY early, but his Statcast profile backs it all up 

Now, interestingly, he’s “just” 66th percentile sprint speed, but he stole 47 bases in 98 minor league games this year, so his ability is real there. It’s a little early to call him the 2026 PCA since his skill set is modestly different. He’s good with the glove, but not the same all-world fielder. He likely will have less pop, though. He hit 14 AAA homers this year, but with just an 87.2 EV so his MLB EV may decline over time. 

Chandler Simpson

The Rays speedster went in the middle of the 7th round. He’s like Rabbit 2.0. While earlier speed only guys like Billy Hamilton and Mallex Smith could not actually hit, Simpson can, at least for average. He’s batting .304 despite an anemic EV’s and HardHit%. He has 37 steals in 80 games, and there’s little reason to think he will drop off that pace in a full season.

He will, of course, require a specific roster build given he’s at best a super plus case in steals and average, neutral-ish in runs, and an extreme minus in homers and RBI’s. I’d guess he does not go this high in spring drafts. Someone in every draft finds themself short on steals, and he’s a 1-stop solution to that build, though you won’t necessarily know that until a bit later than the 7th round. Ryan Rufe from Rotowire already had Kyle Schwarber and Cal Raleigh when he drafted Simpson, so that’s a crazy-fun and really interesting start. Schwarbs and the Big Dumper are not actually zeroes in steals, in fact, they’ve combined for 24 of them so far, along with 92 (!)  homers. They’re both batting averages risks, but I love this start.

Ceddanne Rafaella

There’s a lot to like here, but is the last pick in the 7th round a little high? Well, it’s James Anderson again, so maybe not. Ceddanne is a hugely valuable actual baseball player with 100th percentile fielding in (mostly) centerfield, but also middle infield. He also has 91st percentile speed that’s gotten him 19 steals already this year on top of 19 last season. And he has some pop with 14 homers and a 10.3% Barrel%. Poor plate skills early on last year really wrecked his season, but he’s made huge strides there. His BB% has lifted from an anemic 2.6% to a….less anemic 4.7%. Meanwhile, his K% dipped from 26.7% to 18.7% He still chases way too much at 42.2% (2nd percentile), but at least he’s making some contact as his Whiff% dropped from 33% to 26.3%

He’s still just 24, and no matter who the Sox add or subtract, his glove and versatility will get him regular PA’s. It’s easy to envision a 20-25 season with a .260 or so average and decent counting stats. I like his odds of getting plus value at this draft cost.

Fallers

Kyle Tucker

The Cubs’ soon-to-be free agent has had just a miserable 2nd half of the season, until getting hot right after the Meatball draft was in the books.. He hit .191 from June 29th through August 21st, with 1 homer, 3 barrels, and a 73 wRC+. His EV of 87.7 severely lagged his career 90.6 level. About all he maintained are his fantastic plate skills, as his walk and K rates each hover near 15%.

He got hit in the hands with a pitch in early June, and we find out now he suffered a hairline fracture. But we also find out that said hairline fracture has healed. Obviously, that may have led to his struggles. But it didn’t at first, as his slump began a few weeks later.

There are a lot of unknowns here. It’s the 2nd season in a row with a kind of fluky injury. He missed half of 2024 after fouling a ball off his shin. We also do not know where he will play in 2025 as he’s a free agent.

If the draft took place next Wednesday, Tucker might have stayed in the mid to late first round. His “mental reset” appears to have worked as he hit a homer on Friday and two more on Saturday, to go with a single, a double, and 6 RBI’s

Wyatt Langford

I should have included him in the preview, as he was an obvious candidate to fall. He profiled as a 5-category stud at the top of what looked like a great Rangers lineup. With 19 homers and 16 steals, he’s likely headed for 25-20, so it’s far from a disaster. But his .248 average and 26.9% K% leave an awful lot to be desired, as does his health. A handful of soft tissue injuries have led to 3 IL stays over his nearly 2 year career. I totally get why he dropped, but this pick has the potential to really pay off. He’s a 23-year-old uber prospect with an 85th percentile Barrel% and 88th percentile sprint speed. If Langford can get his contact skills back to his 2024 levels, when he had an 86th percentile chase rate and 60th percentile Whiff% he could return to superstar track.