When I wake up, I mutter MAGNOF, Mornings Ain’t Got No Face. As my stomach begins to growl, BAGNOF, Breakfast Ain’t Got No Face. Turning on the computer then clicking on WordPress, WAGNOF, Writing Ain’t Got No Face. Lunchtime! You know what that means? LAGNOF. I am a Razzball disciple through and through, for better or for worse. Sometimes I contemplate how life would be if AGNOF truly became a way of life. Hmmm, now I’m just picturing billions of pawn pieces off the chess board hovering around aimlessly. Ok, maybe AGNOF shouldn’t transcend fantasy sports and permeate into our daily lives. That said, as Grey has written countless times, AGNOF is the logical way to prance around the fantasy streets. Are there times to veer off the holy path? Of course, as context is important but, as a general principle, AGNOF is the way. Steals and Saves, the SAGNOFs, are the celebrities of the AGNOF world, but catchers may be the most fundamental. Grey has traveled up to the peak of Mt. Fantasinai and brought down the tablets of knowledge more than one time. He has espoused the knowledge that the top catchers just aren’t worth the draft capital. Well, what if one gets dropped to the waiver wire? That changes the entire calculus. Mitch Garver has been dropped in 12% of ESPN leagues. He was the ninth catcher being drafted in the offseason. Why are so many ditching Mitch? And is it warranted?
Mitch Garver is 31 years old, 6’1″, 220 pounds, and bats from the right side. He was drafted by the Twins in the ninth round of the 2013 MLB draft. In the offseason, he was traded to the Rangers.
Throughout his minor league career, he always showed a penchant for walking. The batting average yo-yo’d around while the strikeout rate steadily rose over time. The power peaked its head out like a prairie gopher and had a high of .250 in the 2017 Triple-A season.
He made it to the bigs later that season and struggled, as the strikeout rate was 28.8% while the batting average was .196. Just two seasons later, he slashed .273/.365/.630 with a .357 ISO in 359 plate appearances. He bopped an impressive 31 home runs that season with an 11.4% walk rate and 24.2% strikeout rate. Last season, he hit 13 home runs in 243 plate appearances with a .261 ISO and 29.2% strikeout rate.
So far in 2022, he’s hit one home run in 60 plate appearances with a .157/.267/.216 slash. Let’s dig in.
The walk rate is still robust at 13.3% while the strikeout rate is 23.3%. The ISO is only. 059 while the BABIP is .189,. There’s been bad luck but why the drop in power?
The batted ball data shows that he’s hitting fewer line drives (10.5% compared to 23.2% last season) and more ground balls (42.1% vs. 31.2%). The infield fly rate is also up over 10%. My initial thought is a timing issue.
The plate discipline numbers look good. The chase and swinging strike rates are down. He is swinging more often, though, and the contact rate outside the zone is up a whopping 16%.
Things that make you go hmmmm.
Pitchers are still attacking him with the fastball 48% of the time. No change there. The biggest change in pitch mix has been the elevated use of the curveball against Garver. Last season, it was utilized 5.6% of the time and had been below 10% in the three prior seasons. This year, it’s up to 12.2%
Now, he’s been able to make better contact against breaking pitches this season. The whiff rate is 17.9% compared to 46.2% last season. The slash is still horrible, though, and this explains the plate discipline numbers. He’s able to make better contact but he’s either getting on top of the pitches or getting under, rarely squaring it up. In addition, while he’s been better at making contact against breaking pitches, it’s affected his prowess against fastballs. Last season, the slash was .330/.326/.688. This season, it’s .200/.213/.320.
Mitch Garver bats third or fourth in the batting order on most nights. He currently has the sixth-most plate appearances among catchers. Prior to the season, Steamer had him projected for 21 home runs and 437 plate appearances. The home runs were eighth-most among catchers while the plate appearances were seventh-most. He will never win a batting title but the power is evident. He will not have a sub-.100 ISO the rest of the season. It just seems that he needs to get his timing down, and when he does, the barrels and home runs will return.
This season, I was all about Dalton Varsho, as he’s an outfielder with catcher eligibility. Normally, though, I like to wait at the position and stream. That said, if I were able to get a middle-of-the-order catcher, who will be among the leaders at the position in both plate appearance and home runs, then I’d be all about that life.
