I worked on a prop trading desk for many years. The amount of churn and burn of traders that I saw was unreal. It got to the point that I wouldn’t even bother getting to know the names of the new guys because they would more than likely be gone in a month or so. On a side note, the few women that entered into the fray were usually very successful. I’m guessing due to more discipline and less ego. I always harken back to those trading days in the early portion of any fantasy season because there are always a handful of players that come out of nowhere, go on a heater, then fizzle out. Owen Miller has garnered the attention of everyone with the .500/.545/964 slash with two home runs in 33 plate appearances. As a result, he’s been the most added player in ESPN leagues, going from 0.5% to 72.8%. Now, before the internet tomatoes start flying at my internet head, Miller was just placed on the COVID-19 IL, so he won’t be available for the short term. I’m curious to see if Miller has staying power or if he will suffer the fate of the many traders that blew out their accounts.
Miller is 25 years old, 6’0″, and 185 pounds. He bats from the right side and can play both 1B and 2B. He was selected in the third round of the 2018 MLB draft by the Padres. After three years with the organization, he was traded to the Guardians in the Mike Clevinger deal.
Throughout his minor league career, he wasn’t a walker, having posted a BB% over 10% only once. Maybe he was a joker, a smoker, and a midnight toker. The strikeout rate was under 16% in the first three seasons then spiked to the 25% range when he got to Cleveland and advanced to Triple-A. The batting average was always good, with a low of .290 and a high of .336. The ISO never got above .192 though.
He received 202 plate appearances with the big club last season and slashed .204/.243/.309. The walk rate was 4.5%, the strikeout rate was 26.7%, and the ISO was .105. He hit four home runs and stole two bases. The BABIP was only .261 so there may have been some unfortunate luck. Regardless, I usually don’t put too much stock into rookie numbers because it’s a huge leap and it takes time for young players to adjust, not only to major league pitching but to major league lifestyle.
Let’s dig into what he’s doing this season.
The walk rate is 12.1% while the strikeout rate is 15.2%.
The BABIP is .545 and the ISO is .464.
So those numbers aren’t sustainable but he did hit for a high average in the minors. It’s the plate discipline numbers that are most intriguing. Let’s dig in.
He’s swinging at a similar number of pitches to last season. The main difference is that he’s making a shit ton more contact. The contact rate has gone up over 11% to 97.5% in the zone while it’s 90.4% in general. The contract rate outside the zone is a crazy 81.3%. For perspective, only four players were over 80% last season – David Fletcher, Michael Brantley, Yuli Gurriel, and Adam Frazier. The swinging strike rate is a paltry 4.7%. Only three players had a number below 5% last season. Last season, it was 11.6% for Miller and for much of his minor league career, it was in the 8 to 11 percent range. He did have a 5% number in his rookie minor league season so there’s that.
Much of his early success has been due to luck but he did make a mechanical change to his swing in the offseason.
“We had a lot of conversations just about try to stay in the ground more and feel myself in the ground, ground-to-ground connection in my swing,” Miller said. “And I knew that would allow me to understand where my barrel was a lot better. I was doing a little too much into my load, and I needed to fell that more.” (courtesy of Akron Beacon Journal)
Ryan Lewis of the Akron Beacon Journal described it, “as Miller loaded his swing, he was coming up too much with both his body and his hands instead of having them stay back in…Keeping his hands back and in has put him in a better position to barrel the ball a higher percentage of the time.”
So far in 2022, Miller is barreling 8.3% of pitches. Last season, that number was 5.8%.
The most impressive thing that I noticed when digging into Miller was that he’s been successful against every pitch thrown his way. After struggling against fastballs last season, he’s positive against the pitch this season. Curveballs, splitters, and changeups. It doesn’t matter.
Now, the sample size is miniscule at 33 plate appearances and the 37.6% chase rate is a concern. Pitchers are going to keep poking and prodding until they expose a weakness. And they will find one. It’s just a matter of time. When that happens, how will Miller adjust? Will his new mechanical tweaks stay true or will he revert back to old habits? There’s a ton of unknown.
This heater that he’s on is unsustainable. Do I think Miller could be a solid player? I do but is he going to be a league winner? I have my doubts, especially in the power department. I don’t think he will flame out like many of the traders I witnessed back in the day, but he could hit for a high average.
