I go to a particular diner at least a handful of times a month, as they make the most unbelievable corn beef hash. If I want to try anything else on the menu, it’s only if I have room for more. The only way I wouldn’t order the corn beef hash is if it’s not available for whatever reason. That stubborness is applicable to my fantasy baseball mentality as well. There are certain guys that I’m loyal to, and would only replace if an injury or demotion took place. Well, for some reason, I always love the stench of Rougned Odor, and fortunately/unfortunately, he succumbed to injury on April 10th, which forced me pick up Danny Santana (owned in 21.5% of leagues, an increase of 18.7%). Since the Rangers called him up from Triple-A, all he’s done is slash .339/.355/.542 with 2 home runs and 5 stolen bases. Oh Danny Boy! Is it sustainable?
Santana is 28 years old, bats from both sides of the plate, and is 5′ 11″ 185 pounds. He began his career with the Minnesota Twins back in 2008, was traded to the Atlanta Braves in 2017, and signed a minor league contract with the Texas Rangers this past January. Early in his minor league career, he topped out at 8 home runs, but stole 30 bases once and over 20 bases two times. Last year with the Triple-A Braves affiliate, though, he went 16/12 in 342 plate appearances with a .264 batting average.
So far, Santana has played in 16 games and accumulated 67 plate appearances. He’s never been a walker, but the 3% mark is below the 4.1% career number. He’s striking out 25.4% of the time, which is a tick higher than his career avearge. The two numbers that immediately jump out are the .258 ISO and .442 BABIP. He’s a career .127 ISO guy and usually has a BABIP in the .330 range. I think it’s fair to say that the .355 batting average is going to plummet down to the .250-.260 range.
Looking at the batted ball data, he’s hitting fewer ground ball, more line drives, and more fly balls. The hard hit rate is at 39.1%, well above his career norm, but there’s been talk of a juiced ball and such. Chris Towers of CBS Sports mentioned that the average hard hit rate is 38% this year so….
Statcast data shows the launch angle at 14.3%. Going back four years, that number has been 9.4, 3.4, 5.7, and 2.4. Statcast also has Santana’s hard hit% at 54.3%, which would place him #11 overall in all of baseball. Oh Danny Boy indeed!
We know adjustments are going to come, so what could that possibly look like? Well, Santana is absolutely crushing the fourseam fastball right now, as all 3 of his homers have come against the pitch. In addition, all three have been fastballs up. So, the logical thing would be to pitch him down or with offspeed stuff. He’s been good handling pitches in the lower tier of the strike zone, though. He’s faced 31 sinkers and only struck out once against it. Against 46 changeups, he’s struck out twice. The slider is the one that gives him the most trouble, as he’s faced the pitch 59 times and struck out seven times against it. With that said, he still has a .263 batting average against it with a .158 ISO. Keep in mind that the sample sizes are still small, but they do give a picture of what’s going on.
There are two main chinks in the armor that I see with Santana. The first is that he sucks against left-handed pitching. In his career, the strikeout rate is 30%, the OPS is sub-.700, and the wOBA is sub-.300. In 12 plate appearances so far in 2019, the strikeout rate is 41.7% and he has 1 hit. The second thing is the 37.4% chase rate. If he qualified, that number would be good for top 20, or bottom 20, depending on how you look at it.
The final piece to the puzzle is playing time. He got his opportunity with the Odor injury and played second base. With Odor back, Santana has been playing first base, but what happens when Ronald Guzman returns? We know Santana sucks against lefties, so Logan Forsythe could be a possible platoon player at first base. The outfield? Joey Gallo and Nomar Mazara aren’t going anywhere. There’s also Shin Soo Choo and Hunter Pence in the mix. Would he replace Delino DeShields? Lot of options in the outfield.
If he keeps hitting over .300, Chris Woodward will find a way to keep him in the lineup. With how little he walks and the sky-high BABIP he’s currently enjoying, I have doubts about that. Ride the hot streak while it lasts, but I’d start looking for possible replacements sooner than later. Once the Rangers get healthy and Santana inevitably cools off, playing time is going to be tough to come by.
VERDICT
