James Holzhuauer is running roughshod over the competition on Jeopardy! these days. So much so that I’ve entered the notion that he’s from the future, but there are tangible reasons for his success. He knows his trivia, as he’s appeared on two other television game shows in the past and performed very well. Hmm, he could still be from the future, but at least this isn’t his first time displaying dominance. As a professional gambler, he’s able to perform quick calculations in his head for sizing bets correctly and ascertaining expected value. Finally, he found an edge in the buzzer: Secrets of the Buzzer by Fritz Holznagel. Sure, there’s some element of luck to Holzhauer’s streak, but the sample size is large enough now to narrow it down to skill or that he’s truly from the future. Alex Gordon of the Kansas City Royals isn’t going Barry Bonds on us now, but his start to the season has been eye-opening as well and would be a perfect time to insert the “wrestler sitting up in coffin” GIF. Is this a run of luck or a resurgence in skill?
In his prime, Gordon was a perennial 20 homer, 10 stolen base guy. He was a .300 hitter for a couple of years, but settled into the .265 range. Once he entered his 30’s, though, the decline was precipitous. The batting average went from .271 to .220, .208, and .245. 17 was the high in homers and only once did he steal more than 10 bases. For those new to the fantasy game, they hovered his corpse and asked, “Is he dead?”
Looking at the numbers, the .311 batting averaging comes with a .303 BABIP, so the success hasn’t been luck-fueled. The strikeout rate of 10.4% is waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay lower than his career rate of 21.5%. The SLG of .578 is waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay higher than the .417 career number. I’m intrigued.
Looking at the batted ball profile, Gordon is hitting fewer line drives but more fly balls. The hard hit rate is a whopping 40.7% and he’s utilizing more of field, as the pull rate is way down and he’s going to the opposite field 7% more than last year and 10% more than the prior two years. Don’t ring that buzzer too soon, though. Looking at the Statcast data, the exit velocity is 88.9 mph. Last season, that number was 88.5 mph. The launch angle of 9.8 is the lowest of his career. Things that make you go hmmmmmm.
So, what could the resurgence be based on?
I find some clues in the plate discipline numbers. He’s chasing fewer pitches outside the zone (22.6% vs 29.7% last season), while swinging at more pitches in the strike zone (76.4% vs 67% last season). Those numbers indicate that he’s being very patient and waiting for his pitch. Now, couple that with the facts that pitchers are throwing first-pitch strikes to him only 51.9% of the time (career mark of 58.9%) and he’s been having one of his best seasons so far against the fastball, and some clarity starts to form. Gordon is getting into good hitters counts, remaining patient, and staying balanced. I think a good indication of staying balanced is that he’s absolutely demolishing the changeup so far this season.
We all know about the ebbs and flows of the pitcher/hitter dynamic. There is constant probing and adjusting. I’m thinking that pitchers will be more aggressive so that they get ahead of Gordon early, which will eventually get him off-balance and bring him back down to earth.
VERDICT
