When someone sneezes, people have become accustomed to saying “bless you” or “gesundheit” after they hear an ahchoo. The origination of the tradition began back in the sixth century, when Pope Gregory the Great uttered the phrase “God bless you” during the bubonci plague epidemic. Gesundheit means health in German. So, it only makes sense that we utter the same phrases for Shin-Soo Choo, who is 36 years old and playing in his 15th major league season. I noticed that he was dropped in 4.7% of ESPN leagues over the last seven days. Trash or treasure?
Over the past 10 years, Choo has averaged 120.9 games per season. In 2011, he only played 85 games due to pulling a side muscle and fracturing his left thumb after getting hit by a pitch. In 2016, Choo only played 48 games due to a strained right calf, hamstring tightness, lower back issue, and forearm fracture. Take out those two seasons and Choo played a respectable 147 games per season. The last two years, at the ripe ages of 34 and 35 years old, he played 149 and 146 games respectively. Gesundheit!
Ok, so there’s risk due to injury and age. What about the skill set?
Once a perennial 20/20 player, the speed has expectantly declined over the years. He did steal 6 and 12 bases the past two years, but we shouldn’t expect much in that department. With that said, the projection systems have him down for 5-7 stolen bases.
Choo has always been a disciplined hitter at the plate. The swinging strike rate rarely ticks above 10% and he chases fewer than 24% of pitches outside the strike zone. The walk rate was 13.8%, 14th-best in all of baseball. The .377 OBP he posted last season was 15th-best! Can he still hit, though?
He is in his mid-30s, so declining skills at the plate should be expected at some point. Well, the ISO has increased from .157 to .162 to .170 last year. The exit velocity of 89 mph was good for 126th in baseball. The hard hit rate was a robust 42%.
One thing I do like to look for in older players is “cheating” at the plate, due to compensating for declining bat speed. There is no one metric for this, but I like looking at pull% and success rate against the fastball and offspeed offerings to get an idea if it’s happening. My thinking is that if a batter starts speeding up the bat to compensate for slower bat speed, he will start pulling the ball more and won’t be able to go the opposite way as much. In addition, he would be more susceptible to off speed offerings.
Last season, Choo pulled the ball 38.1% and went oppo 26.8%, both were improvements from the prior two years. In fact, the oppo rate was the highest since 2013! As for success against the fastball, Choo hit the pitch very well. But how did he do against off speed stuff? He was a positive against both the curveball and changeup. The only pitch that gave him trouble was the slider, which has historically been his kryptonite.
Not all is lovey dovey, though, with Choo. He struggles against left-handed pitching and the gopher population is up in arms over his 50.2% ground ball rate.
With that said, he’s not going to get platooned and he’s slated to bat lead off for the Rangers. Steamer has him projected for 142 games, 646 plate appearances, 21 home runs, 86 runs, 68 RBI, and 7 stolen bases with a .255/.357/.419 slash. He’s projected to be 40th in homers among outfielders, 15th in runs scored, and 5th in projected plate appearances. TREASURE
