The LABR mixed-league draft has taken place in mid-February since its inception a couple of years ago and I have been lucky enough to be a part of it. Steve Gardner at USAToday.com is a gracious host, it’s a good group of people and competitors (even better with the addition of Dr. Roto and Scott Pianowski of Yahoo) and the timing of the draft is a great incentive to get my preseason projections, values and research done about the same time Grey finishes his marathon of player ranking posts.
Every preseason, I do things a little differently. I would like to say I am inspired by Einstein but his brilliance does not excuse his mediocre bagels. Yes, it’s not like I live in a bagel mecca nirvana heaven Garden of Eden in Austin, TX (Wholy Bagel excluded) but the theory of relativity does not extend to bagels IMO.
The reason I do things differently every year is because I get a little smarter and humbler each year. That might sound oxymoronic but it’s not. Unless you are experiencing unparalleled success, you should be questioning all your thoughts and actions. Figure out what worked and rethink the rest. FWIW, I also find tinkering is my brain’s way of keeping me from getting bored.
The biggest change this year was….I just had less time/energy. Partly life. Partly being a little fried from cranking out NFL and NBA projection engines + player pages since middle of last year. So the real challenge this year was streamlining the hell out of everything. For the most part, I think this was helpful because I streamlined a number of steps that added little-to-zero value in regards to the projections or my drafting. But, being honest, I could have used another couple hours to plot out my draft (my frigin’ luck that my only other February draft – CBSSports AL-only – had their auction the same day as my LABR night draft).
Quick recap on last year. After a 5th place finish in 2015, I fell back to 7th place in 2016. Here is my preseason writeup. My first five picks were a championship foundation (Bryant/Marte/J-Up/Thor/Lester) and I had a solid number of value picks in Daniel Murphy (12), Ozuna (13), Tomas (16), Forsythe (20), Beltran (21), Jeffress (25), Didi (27). Prince Fielder over Pujols at pick 6 coupled with Duda at 9 and a bouncebackless Ellsbury at #7 helped turn a potentially top 3 offense into middle-of-the-pack. I also drafted Orlando Arcia AND Tim Anderson over Trevor Story (Trea Turner already off board) and wasted a pick on A.J. Reed. My pitching picks pretty much whiffed after Thor/Lester (Pineda/Taijuan/McHugh/Buchholtz/Giles/Jumbo Diaz/Quackenbush/etc). Oh well. Congrats to Todd Zola on his Kershaw-led victory.
Here are the full results of the 2017 LABR Mixed League Draft. Below are my picks and my analysis:
| Pos | Name | Pick |
| C | Devin Mesoraco | 22.316 |
| C | Jason Castro | 24.346 |
| 1B | Eric Hosmer | 6.76 |
| 2B | Rougned Odor | 3.45 |
| SS | Carlos Correa | 1.15 |
| 3B | Matt Duffy | 19.285 |
| OF | Charlie Blackmon | 2.16 |
| OF | Adam Jones | 5.75 |
| OF | Odubel Herrera | 8.106 |
| OF | Carlos Gomez | 9.135 |
| OF | Brett Gardner | 20.286 |
| CI | Albert Pujols | 12.166 |
| MI | Kolten Wong | 18.256 |
| UT | Tommy Joseph | 16.226 |
| SP | Stephen Strasburg | 4.46 |
| SP | Jeff Samardzija | 10.136 |
| SP | Steven Matz | 11.165 |
| SP | Drew Smyly | 13.195 |
| SP | J.A. Happ | 17.255 |
| SP | Wei-Yin Chen | 21.315 |
| RP | Craig Kimbrel | 7.105 |
| RP | Brandon Maurer | 14.196 |
| RP | Shawn Kelley | 15.225 |
| B | Brandon Moss (1B/OF) | 23.345 |
| B | Tony Wolters (C) | 27.405 |
| B | Joey Gallo (3B) | 28.406 |
| B | Jose De Leon (SP) | 25.375 |
| B | Adam Conley (SP) | 26.376 |
| B | Corey Knebel (RP) | 29.435 |
Draft Strategy Overview
- At pick 15, value is less of a concern. Just avoid picking guys with a high probability to be there 28 picks from now.
- Aim for balance across categories – particularly on power/speed/AVG.
- Given the draft is so early and, thus, so much uncertainty at closer, grab a third closer in the 14th-16th round if available.
- Pitching feels more uncertain than last year. Unless there is a great deal, make this the year where you invest closer to 67-70% on hitters vs 60-65% hitter. Best way to do that is limit to 2 pitchers in the first 9 picks.
Early Round Notes
- Picking on the back turn is pretty easy. Rank your top 16 and, at worst, take 15 and 16 on that list. I ended up with #14 (Correa) and #16 (Blackmon) with Scherzer being my #15. Based on NFBC ADP, there was a good chance that one of Miggy, Rizzo, Donaldson or Trea Turner would fall to me but I did not believe it. (Note: based on NFBC ADP, Bumgarner is only about a 50/50 shot to make it to pick 15. it was surprising enough to see Scherzer make the top 14 in this league.)
- Happy with this as a solid 5 category base after 2 picks. But I like just about every other teams 1/2 as well so la dee da.
- Rougned Odor was my ‘best case’ bat to fall to pick #45. I had this as only a 23% chance. I would have been tempted to take Desmond if Odor wasn’t available. I would have been fine taking another bat here if there had been a major SP run. I am more bullish on Strasburg than most – he is my 7th SP and my 8th (Price), 10th (Cueto), and 13th (Arrieta) were taken ahead of him. My disdain for aces in
pitcherhitter-friendly parks kept me from pulling the trigger on Darvish over Strasburg. This is the #1 pick where I regret not having more prep time because my rankings and player availability model predicted I would have to make this choice. A part of me wishes I just took Darvish.- For s’s and g’s, if I took a 2nd bat instead of Strasburg, there wasn’t a good SP value on the board at my 5th/6th pick. I may have taken Chapman with one of those picks and then went Gerrit Cole in the 7th and Danny Salazar in the 9th. Would I trade Strasburg/Adam Jones/Kimbrel/Gomez for Desmond/Cole/Salazar/Chapman right now? Yeah, I think I would.
- Adam Jones and Eric Hosmer at 5/6 are safish bets with limited upside (unless you believe Hosmer FINALLY puts together a complete season). In retrospect, I jumped the gun a bit on Adam Jones who had a better chance of making it back to me for my 7th pick than Khris Davis.
- If you promised me health, choosing between Craig Kimbrel and Wade Davis at pick 7.105 is a dream. I had Wade Davis higher on my rankings and I went with my gut on Kimbrel. Maybe I’m a sucker who thinks every Red Sox pitcher needs a second year to acclimate (see Porcello, Rick). Also, Wade Davis had arm problems where Kimbrel had leg problems. Odubel Herrera doesn’t FEEL like an 8th round pick but he had less than a 20% chance of making it back to me and I think he can match last year’s 40 HR+SB with an uptick on R/RBI (helped by permananet move to middle of lineup) and solid AVG.
General Notes/Strategy
I am going to re-use the same format from the previous two years as most readers seem to prefer it to just a pick-by-pick analysis. This format does mean I talk more about my competitors’ teams than most post-draft write-ups. I do my best to be respectful yet honest.
Hopefully, you’ll find some piece of strategy you can apply to your upcoming drafts. I have updated this to reflect changes in my philosophy since last year. Some of it incorporates learning. Some of it is driven by changes in the player pool.
You’ll see me note a lot of percentages about pick values. I calculate pick values based on my auction dollar projections. The #1 pick gets the $ value of the 1st ranked player, etc. Generally, the last pick in the 22nd round is worth a dollar (13 hitters + 9 pitchers * 15 teams) as I budget $0 for the 2nd catcher. The 23rd to 29th rounds are valued at or around $0.
| In General | My Team | Observations on Other Teams | |
| Upside vs Reliability | Sprinkle upside picks throughout draft, veer towards reliability in early rounds. | Correa and Odor as picks 1/3 skew upside but they have at least delivered top 45 pick performance in their early careers. Herrera, Matz, Wong and Tommy Joseph have upside potential as well. I think my pitching staff is a bit too upside/risky when it comes to health. | Usually a team (<cough> Jake Ciely </cough>) stands out as too upsidy but I’m not seeing one. Perhaps the fact that there are so many great under 25 players who have delivered 1+ solid seasons is the reason?
Mike Podhorzer took Villar at 1.16 and Gary Sanchez at 4.59. I am in agreement on the values based on projections but I probably take players with less upside risk at those spots. Also, I am down with Jeff Erickson’s Story/Dahl at 3 and 6. I’m a sucker for Rockies. |
| Bouncebacks | I like them as long as health not a question mark, skills/age look positive, and properly discounted. | Last year’s bounceback (Ellsbury at pick #7) was of the dead cat variety. Not sure Beltran qualified as a bounceback vs ‘discounted old guy’ (like Pujols this year). Carlos Gomez, Drew Smyly, and Wei-Yin Chen went 5 or so rounds later vs last year and are still around their primes in good situations. I like those bets.
Matt Duffy in the 19th as my first 3B is not ideal. I do like he will get SS eligibility and the Rays lineup is so fluid that he could fall into solid R/RBI. |
The #1 ‘bounceback’ player based on last year’s ADP has to be Andrew McCutchen. Howard Bender of FantasyAlarm took him 3.41. I have him ranked 37th with a 5th round ADP so I like the pick but he didn’t get the full bounceback discount (note: he would’ve been taken two picks later that round by Bret Sayre). Scott Pianowski went w/ bouncebacks at 1B/CI with Abreu (4th) and Adrian Gonzalez (8th). I like Abreu’s value better than A-Gone. I like Bret Sayre’s Tulo (12th) and Choo (19th) bouncebacks. Sonny Gray in the 17th round by Jeff Erickson seems solid too. |
| Category Balance vs Best Player Available | In a weekly league with FAAB, I prefer to come out of drafts without glaring weaknesses. So I do monitor this during draft so, everything equal, I am taking the player who provides better balance. | This was one of the better drafts in memory in terms of coming out of the draft average or better in all 10 categories based on my projections. I project better though in hitting than I do in pitching.
It just so happened that the best bat available on my board tended to be balanced hitters so I was never chasing a category. That never happens?! I just always assume I need to mix/match. |
I am not bothering to calculate category rankings for everyone this year. Doing an eye test, the only thing that stands out is Alan Harrison of The Fantasy Fix and Scott Pianowski of Yahoo will likely be hurting on SBs unless they make key pickups or trades. |
| ADP vs “Get Your Guys!” | I prefer to wait as long as possible for guys I like but adjust based on draft room dynamics. | I took 5 players 28+ picks ahead of ADP: Adam Jones (+43), Jeff Samardzija (+61), Kolten Wong (+72), Matt Duffy (+45), and Brandon Maurer (+42). I’m not losing sleep over any of these reaches but I don’t feel great about them either. | No team was a huge offender here and I was close to the top offender in the first 12 rounds. Limited to just the first 4 rounds, the only 3 picks that were 20+ picks off ADP were Gregory Polanco (3.37) and Andrew McCutchen (3.41).
I’m really eh on Polanco. I think he’s a speed tease (20 SB ceiling – i don’t trust tall guys to steal) and skeptical on power upside at PNC Park. I think Odubel Herrera has a 50/50 shot at outperforming him. |
| Anticipate Other Teams’ Picks When Prioritizing | Get ahead of player runs to minimized getting sniped. | This was a MUCH bigger deal last year picking #13. This isn’t an area of focus for me when I pick on a turn.
While I know a little bit about the tendencies of my fellow drafters, I really don’t think it’s all that important (except when picking near a turn like my pal Mike Podhorzer who remembered too late that I usually punt catchers). |
Hard to judge other teams on this BUT I think one undiscussed downside of drafting w/ a teammate is too much time trying to predict other picks and hoping/wishing your guy falls to you versus focusing on all contingencies. I’d rather focus on my draft board. Just something that sprung to mind listening to a certain podcast.
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| Hit/Pitch Mix | I switched from 65/35 last year to 67/33 because I felt less certain with pitching this year. The SP/RP split was 24.4/8.6. Last year, this room was 65/35 (and the winner was 60/40!). | I guess I wasn’t the only one more bearish than last year on pitching as the room mirrored my move – going from 64.6%/25.9%/ 9.4% in 2016 to 67.6%/23.6%/8.8% in 2017.
Last year, my team splits were 65/29/6 and that over-investment in SP did me no favors thanks to Pineda/Taijuan at 10/11. This year was 66/23/11 thanks to taking a 3rd closer. This is my lowest SP investment in recent memory but speaks to my uncertainty on 2017 SPs. |
Not surprisingly (based on my experience drafting w/ them in this league + their articles), Jeff Erickson of Rotowire and Todd Zola of Mastersball invested the most in SP with 33% and 30% respectively, leaving only 57% and 59% for hitting. Jeff took Kershaw at 1.2 (note: Kershaw taken in top 6 in this league two years straight and that drafter won both years) and Darvish at pick 4.59. Todd went Bumgarner at 2.19, Carrasco in the 5th and Teheran in the 8th. I like all those picks besides Teheran.
Scott Pianowski of Y! Sports had the highest hitting investment I can ever recall in a 15-team snake with 77%, investing only the 5/10/11/13/21/25 picks for SPs and only one closer in Sam Dyson at 14 (plus lottery ticket on Benoit and Doolittle in the 22/23). Mike Podhorzer of FanGraphs (predictably) was tied for 2nd at 73% with Bret Sayre of Baseball Prospectus. |
| Closers | My position on Closers changes every year. I wanted a good RP1 and then ideally get 2 cheaper ones in rounds 14-17. Invest in end game on 1-2 closer candidates (aiming for 4 total RP). | Still talking myself into being happy with Kimbrel at pick #7. Brandon Maurer with pick #14 – after a 10 minute internet outage – was mildly regrettable then and news about Carter Capps competing for the job add to that regret. Happier with Shawn Kelley at pick #15 but hard to feel confident that Rizzo won’t trade for a ‘name’ closer like he did with Papelbon. Fingers crossed I get at least 30 saves between the two. I like Corey Knebel with the last pick of the draft as Neftali Feliz is a rental. | There was slightly less investment than last year in closers as I think that there is more collective uncertainty on eliteness and roles.
Looks like a couple of teams went with the 1 closer and a lottery ticket method I did last year. That made sense to me last year but when a guy like Madson is available late 16th or Bedrosian in the 18th (who i think is a premium lottery ticket), I think it’s better to just grab them because the upside is huge when you consider the FAAB investment necessary to grab closers on waivers. |
| Middle Infielders | Pay no premiums for ‘scarce’ positions. Stay patient. Adjust player choices based on offensive category balance. | As the text of the left suggests, I usually do not invest in middle infielders with my first 10 picks because I find them overvalued. But we are in a time where there are just so many 2B/SS that I am finding some value.
It’s hard to say if I’d have taken Carlos Correa and Rougned Odor in those picks if they were 1B/3B/OF but I think I paid market price on Correa and got a bargain on Odor. I took a shot with Wong at MI knowing that there are always cheap FAAB players if that lottery ticket doesn’t win. |
No sign of MI inflation this year. The first 18 selected MIs averaged only 1.5 picks ahead of ADP! |
| Catchers | I like to punt Catchers. The demands of the position lead to greater injury risk and more volatile offensive numbers IMO. | Super punt!!!! Devin Mesoraco at pick #316. Why the hell not? It’s an unlimited DL! Jason Castro and Tony Wolters should get some ABs.
Total $ allotment to catchers: $1.70 or less than 1% of my pick value. Much happier taking a 3rd guy with a shot at saves (Shawn Kelley) in the 15th than hoping a Rupp/D’Arnaud/Norris puts up better than a 20th+ round catcher. |
The ‘room’ invested 6% on catchers which is the norm (last year 5.7%). |
| Starting Pitchers | Draft quality and quantity. Mix upside and consistency. | I don’t know. Strasburg has a high risk/reward. I like my LHP crew in Matz, Smyly, Happ, Chen, and Conley. Samardzija suckered me in with his general durability and pitching at Telecom Park. Jose De Leon seems like a worthwhile gamble.
We shall see. I have plenty of experience fishing for SPs on the waiver wire from last year. One note of interest: Lance McCullers was at the top of my board and it was tough passing on him for Samardzija. Not sure I make this call if I didn’t assume so much injury risk was Strasburg. |
This is one where, generally, investment and expected return are about equal across thee teams. Based on my #s, teams other than mine that I thought got surplus SP value for their investment are Alan @ The Fantasy Fix and Todd Zola. Not loving my buddy Dr. Roto’s SPs given he invested the third most in the room to snag C-Mart / Aaron Sanchez / Greinke / Gausman / Urias / Severino / Eduardo Rodriguez. Greinke must feel like a 50-year old in that group. |
