This is a post for the fantasy baseball drafters who use Excel, Google Docs, or some other war room software that automatically totals a drafted team’s stats while in the middle of a draft. Or perhaps for those of you who do mock drafts or simulated drafts.

The below grid represents my projected 75% mark in each stat category across 10/12/14/15/16 team ESPN and Yahoo default roster format leagues.

These numbers should only be used directionally. Please note that each projection source projects to a different league average so your team may look great if using a ‘bullish’ source and look poor if using a ‘bearish’ source. These are based on the Steamer/Razzball projections.

While I stand behind these numbers as they are part of the foundation behind my Player Rater $ estimates, I do not use these as part of my draft. I prefer to add up the dollar values per category. Same difference I suppose but it is easier to see counting totals for ratios and it lets me fixate less on the numbers (e.g., I see $7, I know they are good…I don’t fixate on 20 SBs vs 25 SBs).

Notes:

  • The differences between ESPN and Yahoo roster formats are much greater for hitters (13 ESPN starting spots vs. 10 in Yahoo) than pitchers (9 pitchers in ESPN vs. 8 pitchers in Yahoo). In daily leagues, I have found that Yahoo leagues end up with similar innings totals as ESPN leagues, indicating that owners are that much more aggressive in cycling in relievers during SP off days and/or streaming. So you will find the same targets for ESPN and Yahoo.
  • It’s quirky for sure that the WHIP targets are 1.19 in all league sizes. While the average team WHIP increases with the more teams in the league, the 75th percentile WHIP stays about the same (there are differences at the third decimal place).
  • These projections are solely for post-draft purposes. Daily pickup leagues will have greater counting stats because of more opportunities to optimize their roster.
  • CBSSports leagues should match ESPN assuming you use the roster format: C/1B/2B/SS/3B/5 OF/MI/CI/UTIL/9 P. For NFBC or other 2-catcher leagues, you should add a 2nd catcher’s worth of stats on the offensive side.
Roster Format # of Teams Point Total (75th percentile) R HR RBI SB AVG W SV ERA WHIP K
ESPN 10 7.8 1,019 295 1,011 165 0.275 84 130 3.39 1.19 1,303
ESPN 12 9.3 993 281 985 162 0.273 83 113 3.42 1.19 1,274
ESPN 14 10.8 968 274 965 154 0.271 83 102 3.43 1.19 1,248
ESPN 15 11.5 956 267 952 152 0.271 84 95 3.45 1.19 1,245
ESPN 16 12.3 946 261 937 150 0.270 84 89 3.45 1.19 1,234
Yahoo 10 7.8 810 234 809 139 0.277 84 139 3.39 1.19 1,247
Yahoo 12 9.3 793 226 786 131 0.276 83 113 3.42 1.19 1,207
Yahoo 14 10.8 772 217 768 126 0.275 83 102 3.43 1.19 1,171
Yahoo 15 11.5 760 213 757 126 0.275 84 95 3.45 1.19 1,162
Yahoo 16 12.3 751 211 752 121 0.274 84 89 3.45 1.19 1,147
  1. Matt says:
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    Thanks Rudy. This is exactly something I was looking for!

  2. Swfcdan says:
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    Are you still buying the “there’s no thing as position scarcity” thing? Remember that post last year, generated a hell of a lot of debate.

    • Cram It says:
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      @Swfcdan: Thought it’s been proven over the years that positional scarcity isn’t really a thing.

    • Yes. Still don’t believe in position adjustments except mild increases for Catchers in 2 C leagues.

      • goscottiegogogo says:
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        @Rudy Gamble:

        So normal 5X5 you just draft best hitter available? When do you start drafting open positions on your roster?

        • @goscottiegogogo: i don’t focus much on position. just on making sure i’m maintaining some balance/flexibility when it comes to hitting categories – notably HR/SB/Ratio (usually AVG or OBP). I try to avoid filling up on OF b/c that limits flexibility later in drafts.

    • Mordacious Levator says:
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      @Swfcdan: much proof of this exists independent of razzball also.

  3. JB says:
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    Rudy –
    How do these numbers change if you are in an NL or AL only league? (12 team)

    • @JB: well, they are definitely smaller. here’s what I have for 12-team leagues with ‘standard’ AL/NL-only format (14 hitters):

      R HR RBI SB AVG
      AL12 771 216 779 106 0.266
      NL12 721 194 725 124 0.269

      W SV ERA WHIP K
      al12 73 57 3.71 1.24 1,096
      nl12 71 57 3.58 1.24 1,111

      • Van Hammersly says:
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        @Rudy Gamble: Rudy, would you mind providing your draft goals for a 10-Team NL- or AL-Only (14 hitters)?

  4. goscottiegogogo says:
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    Why 75% Rudy?

    • @goscottiegogogo: averaging 75th percentile in all categories is what’s necessary for first place. So it’s a better barometer than 50th percentile.

  5. Andrew Edenbaum says:
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    I paid for the subscription and it won’t let me log on. Either fix it or refund my money.

  6. Andrew Edenbaum says:
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    I paid for the Roto Deluxe. My money was accepted. Please confirm my user name and password. Thank you.

  7. bossmanjunior333 says:
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    Hate to post this twice, but I ended up using your Tout Wars draft as a guide for my OBP league. Ironically, I ended up with the second pick in the draft as well and similarly picked Harper.

    10 team 5×5 OBP h2h with limited moves (budget)

    Because it’s limited moves, streaming really isn’t an option. Less moves you make, more real money you keep.

    C Martin
    1B Votto
    2B Villar
    3B Rendon
    SS Story
    OF Harper
    OF Bautista
    OF Broxton
    UTL C Santana
    BN Thames

    SP Strasburg, Carrasco, Maeda, McCullers, Paxton, Nola, Walker, Cotton, Wacha

    RP Dyson, Holland, Bedrosian

  8. BG says:
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    Thanks Rudy! Any info on what the target is for OPS in a 16 team espn (really CBS) league?

  9. AP says:
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    my draft starts in 30minuts
    how can i set up war room to espn 10 person
    i paid for the 6 month sub

  10. PadreCracker says:
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    Rudy, I always enjoy your clear-eyed statistically based grasp on how to approach this hobby. Keep up the great work. We appreciate you!

  11. Snuka says:
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    Thanks for posting this, great work!

  12. Ed Clinton says:
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    Rudy – Would you please weigh in on my team I just finished drafting, please?
    12 team Yahoo H2H
    H, R, HR, RBI, SB, OBP, XBH
    APP, W, K, ERA, WHIP, QS, SV+H

    C – Wilson Ramos
    1B – Wil Myer
    2B – Jason Kipnis,
    3B – Todd Frazier
    SS – Fransisco Lindor
    3x OF – Mookie Betts, Nelson Cruz, Adam Eaton
    2x Util – Andrew Benintendi, Albert Pujols
    Bench – Jon Schoop, Max Kepler

    SP – Yu Darvish, Danny Duffy, James Paxton, Michael Pineda, Jake Ordizzi, Ervin Santana, Steven Wright, Robert Gsellmen, Matt Boyd

    RP – Kenley Jansen, Greg Holland, Kyle Barraclough, Matt Bush

    • On first glance, seems solid on offense though I would just ditch Ramos. he’s had one solid year and he’s coming back from a major injury. You already got your injury case with Kipnis.

      For pitching, solid front 4. Ervin Santana and Wright should be dropped IMO. Like most H2H, I know that available SPs are slim pickings. here’s a few potential guys…McCarthy on LA, Skaggs on LAA (delayed start), Conley on MIA, Chacin or Perdomo on SD, McHugh on HOU.

      Bullpen arms are good.

  13. nick says:
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    15 team roto, weekly lineups. Thoughts?

    C: Vogt
    C: J Castro
    1B: Rizzo
    2B: Panik
    3B: Longoria
    SS: Lindor
    CI: Hanley
    MI: A Escobar
    OF: Giancarlo
    OF: Braun
    OF: B Buxton
    OF: Mazara
    Util: Kepler

    P: Maeda
    P: D Duffy
    P: Lackey
    P: Snell
    P: Hammel
    P: Bundy
    P: Hellickson
    P: D Robertson
    P: Kintzler

    Bench:
    Koda Glover
    Carlos Rodon
    A Conley
    Archie Bradley
    Reynaldo Lopez
    Matt Strahm
    Matt Duffy

  14. Tony says:
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    As a yahoo player I can tell you theres no way in he77 a 1207 is 75th % in 12 teamers-

    If you break even on ks (1400) your more than likely getting a 9 or 10 outta 12 only. Id say it takes 1350 ks at least to be top 75%

    • @Tony: these are draft goals. not end of season goals.

      • Tony says:
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        @Rudy Gamble: Arent they one in the same? Im presuming this is roto only- Whats the point of hitting these projs if there just gonna drift into the sea the moment you start streaming etc?

        For yahoo you need to be looking at k rate only and shooting for 9 plus-
        Your 1207/1400 8.6 is gonna put you in the bottom 1/3 no doubt, that is unless we are not accounting the full 1400 as the divisible in which case what are the projections based off?

        • @Tony: the projections are modeled off a starting roster – for yahoo i goose it from 8 P to 9 P (generally 6 SP/3 RP).

          So these draft goals are for assessing those starting players.

  15. Wil says:
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    Complete gut reaction but 162 steals feels like a very high target for 12 team leagues for 2017.

  16. AdamH says:
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    This is great, but isn’t a standard yahoo lineup 9 spots, not 10?

    • @AdamH: standard yahoo is C/1B/2B/SS/3B/OF/OF/OF/UTIL/UTIL and 8 P

      • AdamH says:
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        @Rudy Gamble: Oh, interesting. Every Y league I’ve done is just 1 U. I’ll have to adjust. Thanks!

  17. SheriffMcRawDawg says:
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    Good stuff Rudy, very helpful! How did your NFBC draft turn out? Do you have a link?

      • SheriffMcRawDawg says:
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        @Rudy Gamble: nice! Passed on Gordon in the 3rd and Grey took him in the 4th I believe.

        Few guys I like from your squad just went too early for me in ours:
        Moncada – 16th
        De Leon – 20th
        Hader – 30th
        Ahmed Rosario – 34th

        Here’s my squad. Reached on Peraza and Sano but wanted my guys + the position eligibility: http://imgur.com/LIJLqoC

        I think it went pretty well for taking Kershaw at #4. Favorite pick was probably Steve Pearce in the 26th.

        Probably went a teency bit prospect heavy w/ Mancini, Tellez, Frazier, Adames, Fisher, Mendez, Travis and Alfaro, but it’ll be fun at least to see if they get called up and stick.

        What do you think?

  18. Bill says:
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    Rudy,
    Thanks for the great read…as always!
    Please rate my NFBC starting 23…
    Wolters, Tony C COL

    Zunino, Mike C SEA

    Votto, Joey 1B CIN

    Gordon, Dee 2B MIA

    Moustakas, Mike 3B KC

    Arcia, Orlando SS MIL

    Gonzalez, Carlos OF COL

    Moss, Brandon 1B,OF KC

    Ozuna, Marcell OF MIA

    Sano, Miguel 3B,OF MIN

    Upton, Justin OF DET

    Machado, Manny 3B,SS BAL

    Moncada, Yoan 3B CHW

    Eaton, Adam OF WAS

    Chen, Wei-Yin P MIA

    Cueto, Johnny P SF

    Davies, Zach P MIL

    Keuchel, Dallas P HOU

    Kimbrel, Craig P BOS

    Moore, Matt P SF

    Smyly, Drew P SEA

    Snell, Blake P TB

    Watson, Tony P PIT

    Thanks!

  19. Chris says:
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    Any idea what would be a good target for Net Stolen Bases in a 12 team league? Guys like Springer actually ended up hurting me last year.

    • SheriffMcRawDawg says:
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      @Chris: I absolutely LOATHE net saves and net steals.. esp in a weekly h2h league like I was in last year. thankfully commish changed that up for this year

    • @Chris: Net SB – ugh! No one comes to mind. Would just look at the projections -pretty sure I have CS in there….

  20. J-FOH says:
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    I commented to you yesterday in Greys post not knowing you also had a post. Yeah I don’t check very often anymore. But I wanted to thank you for the tools. I actually had to use them for an OBP/SLG H2H draft I was acting as a proxy for. I didn’t want to do the draft nor care enough to put much thought into a h2h draft but thanks to your tools the owner is very happy with my offense.

    • @J-FOH: yo. hope all is well. glad we came through for ya!

  21. Mr. Robot says:
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    Hey Rudy! It was fun drafting with you in the (frustratingly) slow draft. Wondering if you plan on doing a recap. No big deal if you aren’t. Just curious. Anyway, good luck this year!

    • @Mr. Robot: looks like i’m going to run out of time. the tools are a demanding wife. it was a fun draft for sure!

  22. nick says:
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    15 team roto, weekly lineups. Thoughts??

    C: Vogt
    C: J Castro
    1B: Rizzo
    2B: Panik
    3B: Longoria
    SS: Lindor
    CI: Hanley
    MI: A Escobar
    OF: Giancarlo
    OF: Braun
    OF: B Buxton
    OF: Mazara
    Util: Kepler

    P: Maeda
    P: D Duffy
    P: Lackey
    P: Snell
    P: Hammel
    P: Bundy
    P: Hellickson
    P: D Robertson
    P: Kintzler

    Bench:
    Koda Glover
    Carlos Rodon
    A Conley
    Archie Bradley
    Reynaldo Lopez
    Matt Strahm
    Matt Duffy

  23. i like the SP depth (though not a believer in Bradley + Lopez and bearish on Hellickson). Seems like you’ve got category balance on the offense. Solid.

  24. Mike says:
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    I play in a very deep 12 TM league (35 players per team, 2 C, 2 1B, 2 2B, 2 3B, 2 SS, 5 OF and 10 P + 10 Bn) it’s roto 6×6 (XBH and IP), weekly lineups and it has a moves cap, I believe it stands at 40 pickups.

    How would you tweak the draft strategy?

    • @Mike: you need to draft SP quality and quantity. While I don’t believe in position adjustments for the most part, requiring two of each IF type might add some scarcity – 3B gets pretty rough after 20 or so. So would draft IFs over OFs if comparable values.

  25. Maverick says:
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    Hey Rudy
    Been following you a lot more this year…I really appreciate your work! So maybe a dumb question so sorry if I miss the obvious…Looking at your Yahoo 6×6 OPS and QS rankings…those are for H2H right not Points Leagues?? Thanks for clarifying Rudy!

    • @Maverick: the rankings are based on Roto scoring. Don’t think you can do OPS in a points league :)

  26. Andre says:
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    Hey Rudy, great work as always!

    I apologize for posting this several times on the site but I’m looking for trade advice. I’m in a 7×7, 10team H2H keeper league, keep 5 players forever. Counting stats are H, HR, RBI, Runs, Steals, BB, and Average…….W, L, K’s, ERA, Whip, QS and Saves. I had to trade most of my picks last year to go for it all, which worked because I won the league last year…but didn’t have my first pick till the 8th round this year. Keepers from last year are Kershaw, Scherzer, Betts, Machado and Blackmon.

    I was offered the following trade. Thoughts? Should I pull the trigger?

    Kershaw, Blackmon, Pedroia, Shoemaker
    for
    Donaldson, T. Turner, Bregman, Taillon

    My team:
    c- w. contreras
    1b- b. belt
    2b- pedroia
    3b- longoria
    ss- machado
    of- Betts
    of- Blackmon
    of- Piscotty
    utl-Rendon
    utl- Puig

    bn-Drury, D. Travis

    sp- Kershaw
    sp- Scherzer
    sp- Salazar
    rp- Feliz
    rp- Holland
    p- Shoemaker
    p- Cotton
    p- Gsellman

    Bn- Jim Johnson, Lance Lynn, K. Glover

    Thanks for the help!

    • @Andre: what a cute little trade! I’d take that offer (prefer Turner/Donaldson side)

  27. Steve says:
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    Hey Rudy,

    Thanks for this, for a 13 teamer, average 12 & 14 team or just use 12?

    thanks

  28. Big Time Timmy Jim says:
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    Long time listener first time caller…. I have a question about a team evaluation. As it sit here is my team in a 12 team yahoo 5×5 H2H

    C- Yazmain Devil ( Yasmani Grandal)
    1B- Hosmer
    2B- Forsythe
    SS- Lindor
    3B- K.Seager
    OF-Trout
    OF-Yelich
    OF- K.Davis
    UTL- A.Bregman( Breggy Breg if you may)
    UTL- D.Dahl ( when healthy)

    Bench- D.Swanson, J.Bell, Nicholas Castellanos

    SP-C.Sale,
    SP- R.Porcello
    SP- R. Hill
    SP- T. Walker
    SP- J. Eickhoff
    SP- J. Gray
    SP- S. Gray

    RP- R.Osuna
    RP- J.Johnson
    RP- A. Ottavino

    I plugged in the goals above a set of modified projection and while I did come up short in some pitching cats- SV/ERA, I still feel pretty good about the team. Second pair of eyes never hurt though.

    • @Big Time Timmy Jim: i like the offense. don’t love all the SPs (not loving either Gray) but solid core. Ottavino unstartable unless closer (and Holland looks like the guy there). hard to know who is available in your league but would drop Ottavino for an eighth SP who has a favorable home park – Chen/Straily on MIA, Chacin on SD, etc.

      • Big Time Timmy Jim says:
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        @Rudy Gamble: Should I psuedo punt saves then? Also how do you feel on upside plays like Musgrove, Davies, Foltynewicz, Tyler Anderson, Ryu?

  29. ebudz says:
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    how do i download the excel version of the war room? i can’t seem to find it

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