Fantasy Baseball Advice

On each friday we’re going to try and answer your 2008 fantasy baseball questions. Is this every fantasy baseball question we receive? No, but it’s a few of the better ones that were emailed directly to us at info[at]razzball.com. So if you want some fantasy baseball advice that can’t get answered in the comments section, then there you go.

Hey,
I got a huge trade offer. Someone offered me Utley, Oliver Perez and Aaron Rowand for Crawford, Isringhausen, and Sherrill. What should I do? Here is my roster.

Geovany Soto
(ChC - C)
Garrett Atkins
(Col - 1B,3B)
Ian Kinsler
(Tex - 2B)
Edwin Encarnación
(Cin - 3B)
Jimmy Rollins
(Phi - SS)
Álex Ríos
(Tor - OF)
Nick Markakis
(Bal - OF)
Corey Hart
(Mil - OF)
Carl Crawford (in UTIL slot)
(TB - OF)
Bobby Abreu (in UTIL slot)
(NYY - OF)
Chris Young
(SD - SP)
Tim Lincecum
(SF - SP)
James Shields
(TB - SP)
Jason Isringhausen
(StL - RP)
Joakim Soria
(KC - RP)
Heath Bell
(SD - RP)

Bench

George Sherrill
(Bal - RP)
Brian Wilson
(SF - RP)
Rafael Betancourt
(Cle - RP)
Ted Lilly
(ChC - SP)
Jair Jurrjens
(Atl - SP)
Huston Street
(Oak - RP)
Randy Wolf
(SD - SP)
Edison Vólquez
(Cin - SP)
Andy Sonnanstine
(TB - SP)
Wandy Rodríguez
(Hou - SP)
Ervin Santana
(LAA - SP)
Dana Eveland
(Oak - P)
Manny Parra
(Mil - RP)
Yovani Gallardo
(Mil - SP)

Rudy’s answer:
I’m assuming this is a 5×5 league w/ 8 to 10 teams.

Based on that, I see this as a two for three trade b/c Rowand is just a bench player. Utley’s biggest plus is that he plays 2B but you’ve got Kinsler there and no MI slot in your league. You’ve got more than enough closers for the 3 spots so the relievers aren’t that important but you’ve got three starters better than Oliver Perez as well.

I’d say make the trade b/c your team looks stronger on SB vs. HR/RBI and Utley is an upgrade over Crawford. You’ve got a 4th OF in Abreu so you’re fine on OF depth. Oliver Perez is better than some of your bench starters and might pay off at some point (more than Sherrill will anyway…)

Hope this helps.

Grey’s answer:

Your team look pretty stacked as it is, but why not try and make it better, right? So, first off, Utley and Crawford are the top two dogs in the trade. From the looks of your team, you’ll be simply switching them out, since you don’t need a 2nd basemen or an outfielder. I really like Crawford this year. I think those people who are saying he’ll never see 25 home runs are neglecting he’s still only going to be 27 in 2008. There is a possibility he hits 25 home runs, and it could be this year. As for, Utley — Well, he’s better. He has hit 25 home runs already and will again. His projections are 120/32/115/.325/12. You will lose at least thirty steals going from Crawford to Utley, but you have a solid, well-rounded foundation. You can afford to take the hit in steals.

Then there’s Oliver Perez and the other schmohawk for Izzy (kinda crap) and Sherrill (extreme crap). Oliver Perez is the next best player in this trade, so you’re getting the top two players in this trade and you’re asking me if you should do it? I know, you’re worried you’re trading too many saves away. Well, Sherrill is good for nothing. I watched the Orioles the other day. They’re not winning 70 games. Sherrill will be lucky to get 25 saves and he’s never closed before, so he’s far from a sure thing. You’re not trading away Valverde at the beginning of last year here. Sherrill’s not going to come out of nowhere and save 45 games. As for Izzy, he’s a reliable closer who will probably chuck in 30-35 saves. So you lost about 55 saves in this trade, big whoop. You have a few closers and I think you’ll manage fine. If you need saves in July, you trade someone for a reliable closer. Oh, and drop Rowand and pick up Mota or Turnbow or Riske, one of them will be closing soon.

Hope this helps.

Hey,

Your fantasy baseball site is by far the best I’ve found on the web. Reading your blog posts over the past few months, I went from a college football fanatic who keeps an eye on the MLB and March Madness to a hopeless sports addict–now that I’m so into fantasy I have no offseason.

So as I’m sorta new to this, I have one question if you have the time. I’m in a 9-team Yahoo! money league with AVG, H, R, HR, RBI, SB, TB, XBH / W, L, K, SV, ERA, WHIP, CG, K/BB. I didn’t draft a pitcher until round 9. I’ll try to recall the rounds I got these guys, but I’m honestly very worried about my pitching. Would you recommend trading one of my higher round batters for a starter?

C Geovany Soto (18)
1B Mark Teixeira (3)
2B Chase Utley (2)
3B Aramis Ramirez (5)
SS Troy Tulowitzki (6)
OF Carlos Lee (4)
OF Matt Holliday (1)
OF Nick Markakis (7)
OF Adam Dunn (8) — wasn’t planned, just had to pick him up in 8
BN Matt Kemp (16)
BN Michael Bourn (19)
BN Alex Gordon (14)
BN Eugenio Velez (W)

SP Javier Vázquez (11)
SP James Shields (13)
SP Adam Wainwright (16)
SP Manny Parra (20)
SP Edison Vólquez (W)
RP Joe Nathan (9)
RP Francisco Cordero (15)
RP Chad Cordero (17)
DL John Lackey (10)
DL Yovani Gallardo (12)
DL Chris Carpenter (W)

Now that I write it out, it does look like I have a lot of pitchers, but 3 on the DL still makes ya frown. What’s the verdict?

Rudy’s answer:

Thanks for the kind words and frequenting our site.

The first thing we need to consider is your league - 9 team MLB with only 4 OF + no CI, MI, or UTIL. And 8 categories instead of the basic 5.

Having only 9 teams + less offensive slots means you can’t fool around with subpar performers. Factoring in that two of your three categories (TB, XBH) favor power hitters, the value of SB-dependent players like Michael Bourn drops greatly. I’d suggest a virtual punting of SB at this point and concentrate on the other 7 stats.

Your pitching has some promise - particularly the bullpen where you’ve got three of the potentially top 15 closers. Even in a 9 team league that’s good. As for your starters, if every team needs to have 5 starters, you’re talking about 45 starters in play. You’ve got 4 starters I’d put in the top 45 (add Gallardo to your top three) AND you don’t have a top 10 starter. You do have some promise in the young arms (Parra/Volquez) but young starters usually don’t pan out. (Note: I didn’t count Lackey as you have to assume right now he’s going to be out for the year - despite what the Angels are saying.

The players I’d look to trade are Dunn, Kemp, Bourn, Volquez, and Chad Cordero. I’d be targeting a top 12 starter. Here’s the top 12 based on our Point Shares projections:

Santana
Peavy
Webb
Beckett
Sabathia
Bedard
Smoltz
Hamels
Kazmir
Haren
Verlander
Harang

Look for the teams with 2-3 of these pitchers and try to grab one. I think an offer of Kemp/Dunn + Volquez would be tough to turn down. Dunn alone might be enough. If you’re getting misty about Volquez, note that he might strike out a lot but he walks a lot too so he’ll hurt your WHIP and K/BB ratios. Given the K/BB ratio, I’d also consider making a run for Ben Sheets who has awesome K/BB stats.

Hope this helps.

by Lou Poulas of Fantasy Insider Online

The key to any draft - whether it is auction style, scratch, or keeper - is to find value where your competitors don’t see it. Each year owners scour the web and other print publications for information on sleepers, injuries, and any type of data they can get their hands on to help weed through the hundreds of available players to discover who’ll breakout in the coming year.

This is at best a painstaking exercise at the worst a fruitless one. Each publication has their own ideas and frankly they don’t always do a great job of backing up their beliefs. Sometimes they even contradict each other.

An alternative way to look for value is through gauging your competitor’s belief in certain players, and anticipate where they will fall in the draft. A common bias in all leagues is to put too much emphasis in how a player faired in the previous season, instead of looking at a player’s career path as a whole. Statistics fluctuate annually (sometimes through luck, other times due to legitimate reasons such as injuries) and for established players most of it is just noise. A player may simply have a good or bad luck year.

A quick way to get at this data is to compare the Fantasy Rank of the previous year to their projected rank to the upcoming season. Large differences often signify where an owner may over or undervalue a player, and knowing this allows better planning for your draft. I’ve identified some batters who are likely to be valued incorrectly.

Overvalued – These players are likely to be drafted earlier than they should be. They still may be good players, even great, but don’t plan your draft strategy on obtaining their services.

Aaron Rowand - At 29 years of age, Rowand had his career year in 2007, setting career highs in R, 2B, HR, RBI, and OBP. A great rule of thumb is to never pay a premium for players coming off a career year as they are almost always going to disappoint. Rowand is no different. If you need more reasons to avoid him, remember he’s leaving his bandbox of a park (Citizens Bank) for San Francisco which is average at best. Plus, and more importantly, he’ll be surrounded by one of the worst everyday lineups in baseball.

Magglio Ordonez – I like Ordonez, he’ll certainly be a good player this year, but too much of his value in 2007 was in due high batting average (.363). He is a career .312 hitter with a previous high of .320 and in 2008 projects to a line of .308, 85 R, 20 HR, 94 RBI which is more in line with a top-20 Outfielder than the Top-3 version he was in 2007.

Mike Lowell – I admit I dislike Lowell and usually avoid him at all costs. This didn’t work out so well for me last year, but it will work out fine for me in ’08:

2007: .324 AVG, 79 R, 21 HR, 120 RBI, 3 SB, 8th Ranked 3B
2008: .283 AVG, 68 R, 15 HR, 77 RBI, 3 SB, 18th Ranked 3B

Other Mentions
For each player below, the difference between his 2007 Rank and 2008 Projected Rank is displayed. All Rankings are “within the position” as opposed to overall.

-20: Ichiro Suzuki, OF (17, 37)
-20: Randy Winn, OF (40, 60)
-19: Eric Byrnes, OF (2, 21)
-11: Shane Victorino, OF (29, 40)
-10: Placido Polanco, 2B (9, 19)
-10: Casey Blake, 3B (12, 22)
-6: JJ Hardy, SS (9, 15)
-5: Khalil Green, SS (6, 11)

Undervalued – the heart of every winning season is finding the draft day steal.

Nick Swisher – The new Chicago White Sox center fielder had a down year in 2007, batting just .265 while achieving close the bear minimum of counting stats required for a fantasy outfielder – 78 R, 84 RBI, 22 HR. With no speed, Swisher ranked the 38th best in the OF in 2007.

2008 looks to be a bit different. Why? Swisher is better than what he showed last year and is moving from an extreme pitchers park to an above average hitters park. His projected stats are improved almost across the board t0 91 R, 94 RBI, 30 HR. His batting average still figures to be low (.264) but this projection makes him a top 20 outfielder.

Alfonso Soriano – Many, including myself, had Soriano ranked 1st coming into last season and he never did live up to expectations, even when on the field. He missed almost a month of playing time, but even projected over 160 games his 2007 stats don’t electrify – 39 HR, 114 R, 83 RBI, 23 SB. Very good of course, but not worthy of a 1st overall pick.

Fast forward to 2008. Owners still have sour tastes in their mouths having spent $40+ on him last year, and are likely ready to stay away this draft day. His projections are still great though – 35 HR, 97 RBI, 91 R, 22 SB. Watch him fall a bit and grab him early in the second round.

Miguel Tejada – We can all agree Tejada is no longer the elite shortstop that he was a few years ago. Coming off an injury plagued and disappointing 2007, Tejada finds himself with a new team and ready to start anew. He is 32 years old and not likely to completely self destruct. For fantasy owners, the better news is that his counting stats were held down last year due to his missed playing time. He hit 18 HR, with 72 R and 81 RBI making him a lower tier option at shortstop.

His projections are solid - .297 AVG, 76 R, 19 HR, 85 RBI, 4 SB and perhaps more importantly his competition will not be as good. Khalil Greene, Orlando Cabrera, JJ Hardy, Julio Lugo, Jhonny Peralta, and Edgar Renteria were all ranked higher than him last year but project to be ranked worse than him this year. Let your fellow owners draft this crew before Tejada, and a few rounds later get the same value for less cost.

Other Mentions
For each player below, the difference between his 2007 Rank and 2008 Projected Rank is displayed. All Rankings are “within the position” as opposed to overall.

+19: Andruw Jones, OF (31, 12)
+16: Vernon Wells, OF (42, 26)
+9: Rafael Furcal, SS (15, 6)
+7: Troy Glaus, 3B (22, 15)
+5: Miguel Tejada, SS (14, 9)
+5: Tad Iguchi, 2B (19, 14)
+5: Aramis Ramirez, 3B (10, 5)
+5: Josh Fields, 3B (16, 11)
+4: Alex Gordon, 3B (17, 14)

Final Note: Earlier I said, “A common bias in all leagues is to put too much emphasis in how a player faired in the previous season, instead of looking at a player’s career path as a whole.” This only works for established players and you should of course pay specific attention to players at the very beginning or very end of their careers.