Fantasy Baseball Advice

I picked up Doug Fister in every league I could.  So, that’s out of the way.  I won’t start him the next time out though and I’m not sure I’ll start him ever.  I may just drop him if I never get a good matchup at home.  At home’s key.  That’s the only place I’d start him.  Last night, his 7 IP, 1 ER, 4 baserunners, 3 Ks performance is his peak.  He pitches to contact and doesn’t K anyone.  He’s similar to Joel Pineiro.  Call him Jo-eh.  If you were the firster to get him off waivers, chuck him into a package trade for someone much more reliable or exciting.  His appeal is limited.  So, yes, I grabbed him to chuck him.  My apologies, Mister Fister.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Casey Kotchman – Hit his 2nd homer in as many days.  Going mono y mano with Soriole, Bradley Bergesen.

Franklin Gutierrez – The Big FraGu left the game in the 7th with tightness in his groin.  Ugh-arf!  That’s FraGu backwards (almost).

Conor Jackson – To the DL with a hamstring.  This is probably the best thing to happen to his owners all year.  If you’re struggling to find room for him on the DL, I’ll save you the time.  Drop him in most mixed leagues.

Kelly Johnson – 1-for-4, but Conor Jackson’s hamfret pushes Johnson into the leadoff role.  I like me some Johnson!  Not like that.  C’mon, that’s juvenile.

Gerardo Parra – 1-for-3, and now has a starting job because Conor Jackson’s injury is paying it forward.  Parra has little value outside of NL-Only leagues.  There, he’ll give you very little power and little speed.

Ty Wigginton – I mentioned grabbing him yesterday when he had four homers in the last week.  Today, he has 5.

David Eckstein – He hit a walk-off HR for San Diego.  When pressed for comment, Eckstein said it was his biggest hit since knocking out Soda Popinski.

Clayton Richard – 6 1/3 IP, 1 ER, 8 baserunners, 5 Ks.  He’s not really bad on Ks and he will have an under-4 ERA at home this year.

Brian Fuentes – Scheduled to return from the DL on Wednesday.  He should get the closer role right back.  At least I hope so since I own this doode.

John Lackey – 3 1/3 IP, 8 ER.  A’la Superintendent Chalmers, “Lack-eee!”  Honestly, this might have been Lackey’s alter ego pitching, Lon Jackey.  He pitches like he’s in a horror film.

Mike Cameron – Could miss a few games because he’s got some stones below the belt in the literal instead of colloquial sense.

Jacoby Ellsbury – May end up D’ellsburied after all.  The Sawx played Bill Hall in center yesterday.  How’s that for depth?

Jeremy Hermida – HR yesterday.  Hermida couldn’t get to a ball he should’ve, which started the scoring on Lackey.  Hermida is a poor-man’s Trot Nixon.  Call him Mosey Agnew.

Brad Penny – 7 IP, 2 ER, 9 baserunners, 5 Ks.  He’s actually been one of my best pitchers so far.  Scary, yet true.

Aaron Rowand – Reports are good that Rowand won’t need surgery on his face.  Too bad Willie McGee never received the same good news.

Juan Uribe – Has two homers in the last two games.  He’s one of the streakiest hitters.  Bet he hits at least two more homers this week.

Dontrelle Willis – 6 IP, 2 ER, 6 baserunners, 2 Ks.  He seems like a good guy.  I wish him the best.  I wouldn’t touch him.

Felix Pie – Will miss up to three months with latissimus dorsi muscle injury.  I thought only dolphins had dorsi muscles.  Anyone ever see Felix Pie flinch around a can of tuna?  Eh, guess it’s not important.  I imagine Reimold’s still nursing his Achilles’ because he’s pulling a Kotchman with that thing, but he’s got one less schmohawk to deal with for playing time and he has been hitting cleanup.

Kelly Shoppach – Out for 4-6 weeks with knee surgery.  I had knee surgery once and I wasn’t able to catch for almost two months later.  Actually, that’s a complete lie, but my English Comp teacher once told me to personalize.

Brandon Morrow – 7 IP, 1 ER, 5 baserunners, 8 Ks vs. the Royals.  Now they should make him a closer!  I keed.  Morrow should be capable of more performances like this one, but he gets the Rays next and I’m officially more worried about the Rays’ offense than the Sawx’s.

Mike McCoy – 3-for-4, 2 steals.  Hill’s due back soon which will push McCoy to, well, wherever McCoys go when they’re not playing.  In the meantime, McCoy stole 40 bases in Triple-A.  As they say at Razzball, SAGNOF!

Travis Snider – 2-for-5 as he hit his 2nd homer in four games.  I think he might be a year away still, but he could be coming around; don’t sleep on him if he’s out there.

Cliff Lee – Will throw a simulated game on Tuesday.  They should use a Wii for that.

Ike Davis – 2-for-4, 1 RBI and a million New Yawkers thinking this Davis has an idear up der at bat.  If you scroll down, you’ll see a post about him.  Want more, greedy?  Okay.  The Mets announcers (I heart Keith Hernandez) were comparing Davis to John Olerud.  Davis was wearing a batting helmet at the time, but they meant it about his hitting.  Also, they meant it as a compliment, but I took it as insult.  20 homers and a good average?  I’m hoping he develops more power than that.  Either way, you should own Davis for the chance at a breakout.

Jose Reyes – Wanted the day off because of fatigue.  It’s fair after playing three plus games in two days.  Then he got in the game late and continued to do nothing.  We need to remain calm.  He had no time to ramp up to the season.  The thyroid shorted him his Spring Training.  I’m not worried.  If Reyes gets hot, he could carry you for a month.

Craig Stammen – 8 IP, 2 ER, 6 baserunners, 5 Ks.  That Stammen is a real pistil!  What, flower jokes ain’t your thing?  Whatever.  Oh, and Stammen’s a terrible pitcher, nothing’s changed.

Kevin Mench – The Nationals gave him a minor league deal and he’s hitting so far.  If the Nats call him up, I’m booking tickets for Kevin Mench Fathead Poster day when the first 10,000 guests get life-sized posters of Kevin Mench’s head that one can affix to their wall like a giant tapestry or fresco.

Scott Podsednik – Left the team for a family emergency.  The emergency:  give his hot wife a royal f***in’ vs. playing for the f***in’ Royals.

You’ll have to excuse me; I’m a bit hoarse after a weekend in Vegas, so don’t ask me to yell.  All caps are just too much right now.  I’m not sure where I lost my voice.  May have been during our spirited game of Pai Gow Poker.  What was I doing playing $15 hands of a game where I literally just turned my cards over so the dealer could tell me how to play them?  It’s the free drinks, ya’ll!  About eighty dollars worth a free drinks to be exact.  Oh, and Ubaldo was pitching a no-hitter and Pai Gow Poker had the best seats in the house.  I think even the three 70-year-old Asian ladies at the table with us were into it by the ninth.  Hair’s to you, Ubaldo!  Either way, I’m spent so I’ll have to keep my enthusiasm on simmer for now about Ike Davis.  Let’s start this mofo with what Stephen said in the Mets’ Minor League Review, “After hitting zero home runs in 215 at-bats in 2008, doubters began questioning his “raw power,” but failed to consider an oblique injury.  Splitting time between High-A and Double-A, Davis flat-out raked.  Not necessarily the most polished hitter, he still has some work to do with his swing and strikeout rate, but he should continue to hit for power as he keeps a decent rate of balls in the air (42.8 FB%).”  And that’s me quoting Stephen!  In nine games in Triple-A Buffalo, Davis has two homers as he hits a robust .357.  Not to be confused with the girls in Vegas, who are mo’bust.  The Mets are calling up Davis in the next week.  Do I take a flier on him in 12 team or deeper mixed leagues?  Certainly.  Do I expect the 2nd coming of Hayzeus Cristo?  Nope.  But if he hits in first few games, his value will go sky high and you’ll be able to trade him for more than he’s worth.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw this weekend in fantasy baseball:

Mike Jacobs – Designated for assignment.  That assignment is to “stop sucking.”

Derek Jeter – Will return on Tuesday after missing yesterday’s game with a head cold.  Good to see he’s quickly on the mend because a head cold sidelined Greinke for a year.

Aaron Rowand – On the DL with three fractures in his cheekbones that he sustained from a Padilla fastball.  In related news, Charlie Haeger’s fastball plunked a mosquito.  The mosquito’s day-to-day.

Eugenio Velez – Guess who now has a new every day job?  Conan O’Brien? Um, yeah, but also Velez.  He’s terrible at everything, except speed.  Oh, what glorious burners he has.  So, as always, SAGNOF.

Barry Zito – 7 1/3 IP, 1 ER, 5 baserunners, 3 Ks and was Alexander Hamilton to Clayton Kershaw’s Aaron Burr (7 IP, 1 ER, 8 baserunners, 9 Ks).  I’d avoid tough matchups with Zito, but he was ownable last year in most mixed leagues and now through three starts his ERA is below 2.

Franklin Morales – 2/3 IP, 2 ER.  Now has back-to-back blown saves.  Rafael Betancourt, cuddle boy extraordinaire, would be next in line, but I don’t think we’ve reached that point yet.  If Morales blows his next one, then commence vulturing.

Jair Jurrjens – 8 IP, 3 ER, 8 baserunners, 9 Ks.  Jar-Jar was hit hard hard by the Padres in his last start, then held an actual major league offense in check.  Next time, he gets the Mets.  Uh-oh.

Max Scherzer – 6 IP, 2 ER, 4 Ks.  Now has an ERA of 2.12 on the year.  Amongst other reasons, his move to the AL scared me off of him this year.  But so far– Wait, he’s faced the Royals twice and the M’s at Safeco.  Very sneaky, Scherzer.

Wade LeBlanc – 5 IP, 1 ER, 7 Ks.  But if a monkey were playing third, that would’ve been hilarious!

Everth Cabrera – 2-for-4 with his third steal as he continues to bat leadoff.  Potatoes to chips, his OBP, which is currently at .280, should shoot up at least 40 points.

Mark Reynolds – 3-for-4 and his fourth homer yesterday.  Reynolds is hitting .182 on the year and hasn’t attempted a steal.  It’s not cherrypicking negativity for Mini Donkey.  It’s a goad.  Donkeys, mini or otherwise, need goading.

Juan Gutierrez – Sure has been one sweet pickup for me since Thursday.  2 appearances, 1 IP and 5 ER.  Maybe tomorrow he can defecate on my Reggie Jackson rookie card.

Ian Kennedy – 5 IP, 0 ER, 5 baserunners, 7 Ks vs. the Padres in Petco.  A’la Guy Fieri, “Was a meatball of an appearance.  And meatballs are good!”

Ty Wigginton – Has 4 homers in the last week.  Might hit 4 more this week, then not hit another one for a month.  Grab while hot, friend.

Marlon Byrd – 3-for-5 yesterday and will now hit leadoff vs. lefties with Theriot dropping to the eight hole, also known as the don’t steal so the pitcher can bunt you over hole.

Lance Berkman – He’s ready to return for Tuesday’s game.  Him and Carlos Lee should be able to fix the Astros’ offense, assuming you’re playing in a 2006 throwback league.  I have my doubts that Berkman will be the old Berkman.  Actually, let me rephrase that because he will indeed be the old Berkman.  He just won’t be the Berkman that we used to see.

Aaron Hill – Should be ready to go by Friday.  I’ll be impressed if he returns and stays healthy the rest of the year.  Member how excited you were in March to own him?  How ya feeling now?

Alberto Callaspo – 3-for-5, 6 RBIs with 2 homers yesterday.  He’s a .300 hitter with little to no speed and very minimal power.  I will call you, Polancallaspo.

Scott Podsednik – 3-for-5 with his 7th steal.  If you were an alien and this were your first day on Earth and you saw Podsednik’s stats so far this season and his wife, you’d probably think he was the best player in the major leagues.

Luke Hochevar – 6 IP, 2 ER, 11 baserunners, 4 Ks.  He got lucky last time, too.  The time before, I said, “He looked sharp last night and I’m ready to leap if he pitches this well again.”  These starts since then have made it real hard to buy into him totally, but I’d rather own him at this point than not.

Carl Pavano – 3 1/3 IP, 7 ER.  I talked him up last week.  Finally putting years of dreckitude behind me.  So I picked him up and he got shelled.  Did he do this to spite me?  Probably.  But guess what?  It was a weekly league, so I didn’t have him in my active lineup yet.  In your face, Pavano!

Jason Marquis – Didn’t record an out as he gave up 7 runs.  Now that’s Razztastic!

Mark Teixeira – HR yesterday as his average buoys around .115.  Someone turn this guy’s calender to June.

Jay Bruce – 2 solo homers yesterday.  After the game, he cured death, then reversed the cure because of all the people who doubted him the first two weeks.

Matt Garza – 8 IP, 6 baserunners, 5 Ks has a 0.75 ERA on the year.  Have I mentioned that I traded Rafael Soriano to get Garza in one league?

Ricky Romero – 8 IP, 1 ER, 7 baserunners, 6 Ks.  Stop the press!  Who’s that?  Ricky Romero!

Ervin Santana – 9 IP, 1 ER, 4 baserunners, 6 Ks.  As the Black Eyed Peas would say, “Mazel tov.”

Rich Harden – 3 2/3 IP, 4 ER, 11 baserunners, 6 BBs.  Weird how his stuff has gone from filthy to sloppy.

Here we are at the last of the 2009 fantasy baseball rankings before we get to the top 300 for 2009 fantasy baseball.  Some of these top 80 outfielders are really only worth owning in deep leagues or NL- or AL-Only leagues.  But in those leagues, they could make a big difference and could become fantasy relevant in more shallow leagues.  I probably won’t have a lot of these guys on any of my 12 team league teams, because I like to shore up OF earlier than these guys would be drafted, but that’s not to say I have no love for them.  Oh, I do.  Anyway, here’s the top 80 outfielders for 2009 fantasy baseball:

61. Adam Lind – This is the first tier.  This tier goes from here to Hermida.  I call this tier, “Worth taking a shot on these guys very late.”  By the end of the year, Lind could be worth owning in all leagues.  That’s no idle compliment.  Man, you really know how to make a beanbag your own. That’s an idle compliment.  2009 Projections:  65/22/85/.275/3

62. Ryan Spilborghs – Spilborghs falls into the same camp as Denard Span for me.  I like him, but I kinda wish he’d fall down a staircase with sixty pounds of deer meat and open a spot for Fowler or Gonzalez.  The Rox are saying Spilborghs might be batting leadoff.  I’ve that’s true, it makes me almost as excited as Paula Abdul on any given Tuesday or Wednesday.  2009 Projections:  55/12/65/.300/12

63. Franklin Gutierrez – I’m a fan of The Big FraGu.  Decent shot at being a cheap source of 15/15.  Though he will hurt you a bit in average.  2009 Projections:  70/12/75/.260/16

64. Chase Headley – If he was playing anywhere but Petco, you would’ve already read numerous articles on him.  Definitely worth a real late flier in mixed leagues.  2009 Projections: 70/20/80/.280/8

65. Chris Dickerson – I loved Dickerson last year when he first came up.  I still do.  Temper expectations because Dusty does crazy things and Dickerson was playing a bit over his head batting average-wise in limited time last year.  2009 Projections:  55/15/50/.250/15

66. Michael Bourn – SAGNOF. 2009 Projections:  70/4/30/.240/40

67. Matt Joyce – Besides sounding like a 19^th Century poet, he could be this year’s Ludwick, who happens to sound like an 18^th Century composer.  It’s the classics!  2009 Projections:  70/22/85/.250

68. David Murphy/Marlon Byrd – Those in daily leagues could use these two as a righty/lefty platoon.  You “pfft” at me now, but together they could go… 2009 Combined Projections:  100/20/100/.285/10

69. Wladimir Balentien – Very similar to Matt Joyce on power potential with some speed, but he’s more raw.  Not to mention, Wladimir Balentien sounds like a cast member on The Real World:  Transylvania.  Wladdy B. always lets the dishes pile up in the sink! 2009 Projections:  60/22/65/.250/5

70. Travis Snider – Very young and raw, but there is some sweet, sweet upside here.  I already went over him in a Travis Snider 2009 fantasy outlook post.  2009 Projections:  50/12/60/.275

71. Chris Duncan – Plagued by back troubles because of years of getting high-fived by his brother, Shelley.  If healthy, Duncan might be worthwhile to platoon against righties.  2009 Projections:  55/17/60/.255/4

72. Matt Diaz – If you’re in daily leagues and you’re hurting at an OF spot, you should be platooning Diaz in when he faces lefties.  A fantasy platoon of him and Duncan could prove fruitful.  Or not.  These really are your choices.  2009 Projections:  45/10/50/.315/5

73. Jeremy Hermida – His prospect status was derailed by injuries.  If he can get back on track, he might be a sleeper.  Though there’s been absolutely no sign of him getting back on track.  2009 Projections:  70/20/70/.255/7

74. Jose Guillen – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here to Byrnes.  I call this tier, “Pass on these guys.”  There’s no point in grabbing one of these outfielders.  They’ll be on waivers at some point anyway.  If you’re choosing an outfielder this late in the draft, you may as well grab one that has upside.  Chances are the upside may not pan out, but if it does it could pay huge dividends.  These aging vets aren’t going to win you a league.  As for Guillen, only draft him if pouting is a category.  2009 Projections:  60/18/80/.265

75. Ty Wigginton – He had a really solid two months last year.  Do you remember where he was when he started on that two month tirade?  On waivers.  If you draft him, he’ll be there again.  2009 Projections:  60/20/65/.270

76. Aaron Rowand – I don’t want him in a 20 team league that uses only San Francisco Giants.  2009 Projections:  75/14/70/.265/6

77. Ryan Church – In his breakout pre-concussion season, he hit 12 HRs and batted .276.  C’mon, yawn with me.  2009 Projections:  60/14/65/.255/3

78. Eric Byrnes – He used his speed for a lot of his value and now he’s older and coming off leg injuries.  Bleh!  2009 Projections:  60/12/50/.255/12

79. Felix Pie – This is a the last tier.  This tier goes from here to the end of the list.  I call this tier, “Fliers.”  Pie has done nothing to warrant this ranking, but, as I’ve said numerous times, when you’re this deep into a position, you take a flier.  Pee-ay is just that.  2009 Projections:  65/7/40/.250/20

80. Ben Francisco – He hit 15 HRs and stole 4 bases in 447 ABs last year, which sounds yawnstipating at best, until you realize he should be stealing 15 to 20 bags.  He might surprise with a 15/15 season.  2009 Projections:  70/17/70/.260/10 (<– fairly optimistic, but whatevs)

After the top 80 outfielders for 2009 fantasy baseball, there’s a lot of names, but here’s two that stand out:

Carlos Gonzalez – Went over Car-Gonz when Holliday was shipped to the A’s.  In keeper leagues, I’d drop a buck to get him.  2009 Projections:  40/7/45/.260/10

Steve Pearce – On any team but the Pirates, I think he sees a lot of time.  It’s not that the Pirates are stacked.  They just make curious decisions… Rinku and Dinesh curious.  2009 Projections:  55/14/65/7/.260 (<– fairly optimistic, but whatevs)

by Lou Poulas of Fantasy Insider Online

The key to any draft – whether it is auction style, scratch, or keeper – is to find value where your competitors don’t see it. Each year owners scour the web and other print publications for information on sleepers, injuries, and any type of data they can get their hands on to help weed through the hundreds of available players to discover who’ll breakout in the coming year.

This is at best a painstaking exercise at the worst a fruitless one. Each publication has their own ideas and frankly they don’t always do a great job of backing up their beliefs. Sometimes they even contradict each other.

An alternative way to look for value is through gauging your competitor’s belief in certain players, and anticipate where they will fall in the draft. A common bias in all leagues is to put too much emphasis in how a player faired in the previous season, instead of looking at a player’s career path as a whole. Statistics fluctuate annually (sometimes through luck, other times due to legitimate reasons such as injuries) and for established players most of it is just noise. A player may simply have a good or bad luck year.

A quick way to get at this data is to compare the Fantasy Rank of the previous year to their projected rank to the upcoming season. Large differences often signify where an owner may over or undervalue a player, and knowing this allows better planning for your draft. I’ve identified some batters who are likely to be valued incorrectly.

Overvalued – These players are likely to be drafted earlier than they should be. They still may be good players, even great, but don’t plan your draft strategy on obtaining their services.

Aaron Rowand – At 29 years of age, Rowand had his career year in 2007, setting career highs in R, 2B, HR, RBI, and OBP. A great rule of thumb is to never pay a premium for players coming off a career year as they are almost always going to disappoint. Rowand is no different. If you need more reasons to avoid him, remember he’s leaving his bandbox of a park (Citizens Bank) for San Francisco which is average at best. Plus, and more importantly, he’ll be surrounded by one of the worst everyday lineups in baseball.

Magglio Ordonez – I like Ordonez, he’ll certainly be a good player this year, but too much of his value in 2007 was in due high batting average (.363). He is a career .312 hitter with a previous high of .320 and in 2008 projects to a line of .308, 85 R, 20 HR, 94 RBI which is more in line with a top-20 Outfielder than the Top-3 version he was in 2007.

Mike Lowell – I admit I dislike Lowell and usually avoid him at all costs. This didn’t work out so well for me last year, but it will work out fine for me in ’08:

2007: .324 AVG, 79 R, 21 HR, 120 RBI, 3 SB, 8th Ranked 3B
2008: .283 AVG, 68 R, 15 HR, 77 RBI, 3 SB, 18th Ranked 3B

Other Mentions
For each player below, the difference between his 2007 Rank and 2008 Projected Rank is displayed. All Rankings are “within the position” as opposed to overall.

-20: Ichiro Suzuki, OF (17, 37)
-20: Randy Winn, OF (40, 60)
-19: Eric Byrnes, OF (2, 21)
-11: Shane Victorino, OF (29, 40)
-10: Placido Polanco, 2B (9, 19)
-10: Casey Blake, 3B (12, 22)
-6: JJ Hardy, SS (9, 15)
-5: Khalil Green, SS (6, 11)

Undervalued – the heart of every winning season is finding the draft day steal.

Nick Swisher – The new Chicago White Sox center fielder had a down year in 2007, batting just .265 while achieving close the bear minimum of counting stats required for a fantasy outfielder – 78 R, 84 RBI, 22 HR. With no speed, Swisher ranked the 38th best in the OF in 2007.

2008 looks to be a bit different. Why? Swisher is better than what he showed last year and is moving from an extreme pitchers park to an above average hitters park. His projected stats are improved almost across the board t0 91 R, 94 RBI, 30 HR. His batting average still figures to be low (.264) but this projection makes him a top 20 outfielder.

Alfonso Soriano – Many, including myself, had Soriano ranked 1st coming into last season and he never did live up to expectations, even when on the field. He missed almost a month of playing time, but even projected over 160 games his 2007 stats don’t electrify – 39 HR, 114 R, 83 RBI, 23 SB. Very good of course, but not worthy of a 1st overall pick.

Fast forward to 2008. Owners still have sour tastes in their mouths having spent $40+ on him last year, and are likely ready to stay away this draft day. His projections are still great though – 35 HR, 97 RBI, 91 R, 22 SB. Watch him fall a bit and grab him early in the second round.

Miguel Tejada – We can all agree Tejada is no longer the elite shortstop that he was a few years ago. Coming off an injury plagued and disappointing 2007, Tejada finds himself with a new team and ready to start anew. He is 32 years old and not likely to completely self destruct. For fantasy owners, the better news is that his counting stats were held down last year due to his missed playing time. He hit 18 HR, with 72 R and 81 RBI making him a lower tier option at shortstop.

His projections are solid – .297 AVG, 76 R, 19 HR, 85 RBI, 4 SB and perhaps more importantly his competition will not be as good. Khalil Greene, Orlando Cabrera, JJ Hardy, Julio Lugo, Jhonny Peralta, and Edgar Renteria were all ranked higher than him last year but project to be ranked worse than him this year. Let your fellow owners draft this crew before Tejada, and a few rounds later get the same value for less cost.

Other Mentions
For each player below, the difference between his 2007 Rank and 2008 Projected Rank is displayed. All Rankings are “within the position” as opposed to overall.

+19: Andruw Jones, OF (31, 12)
+16: Vernon Wells, OF (42, 26)
+9: Rafael Furcal, SS (15, 6)
+7: Troy Glaus, 3B (22, 15)
+5: Miguel Tejada, SS (14, 9)
+5: Tad Iguchi, 2B (19, 14)
+5: Aramis Ramirez, 3B (10, 5)
+5: Josh Fields, 3B (16, 11)
+4: Alex Gordon, 3B (17, 14)

Final Note: Earlier I said, “A common bias in all leagues is to put too much emphasis in how a player faired in the previous season, instead of looking at a player’s career path as a whole.” This only works for established players and you should of course pay specific attention to players at the very beginning or very end of their careers.