If you got into football a little early (shame on you) and stopped paying attention to baseball, you probably missed out on what Salvador Perez did. He got 158 plate appearances for the Royals down the stretch and hit .331/.361/.473 with three HRs.
Of course that is a slightly limited sample, he had a .362 BABIP and won’t be 22 until May – all red flags.
So, why do I, Albert Lang, like him? Well, he had tremendous success in the minors last season: .290/.331/.437 across AA and AAA. He is also a contact machine that doesn’t strike out a ton, which is fine if you hit the ball well (hello, BABIP). Perez had a 29.2% line drive and 41.5% ground ball rate last year. He hit few fly balls and even fewer (7.9%) left the park. He also wasn’t blown away at the plate: 8% swinging strike rate.
Even if the BABIP comes back to hover around .300, he should bat .290. In addition, he should smack 8 – 12 HRs, score 50 runs and knock in 60. You know what Yadier Molina will do? He’ll bat .280 with 10-15 HRs, 50 runs and 65 RBIs. Molina is safer, but where’s the fun/value in that, you ninny?
According to Mock Draft Central, Molina is the 179th player and 10th catcher off the board. Perez is the 347th player and 26th catcher off the board. According to Fleaflicker, he’s ranked 352nd overall. All and all, I’d much rather have Perez at that price.
Mostly, I’m just trying to be a company man and reinforce the reasoning behind Grey’s ranking of Perez over Molina.
In our 2012 fantasy baseball rankings, we’ve gone over so many flippin’ players I’ve lost track. This is, I believe, the top 60 starters for 2012 fantasy baseball, but you’re best to check the title to be sure. If it is indeed the top 60 starters, then you’re in luck. Only a few more top 20 rankings posts. What is it, February? March? Why don’t I have an app for this? Or do I want a hashtag? App ‘n Hashtag would be a good name for a 50′s style diner with wifi. As with the other rankings posts, tiers and my projections are mentioned. Anyway, here’s the top 60 starters for 2012 fantasy baseball:
41. Michael Pineda – This tier started in the top 40 starters for 2012 fantasy baseball. This tier ends at Wainwright. I called this tier, “Might be fine, won’t be fine on my teams.” I had already went over my Michael Pineda 2012 fantasy. That was before the trade to the Yankees when I was still eating some serious M-Pineda’s. His projections then were 12-10/3.40/1.10/195. I had him originally ranked 19th overall for all starters. Now in The House They Built Across The Street From The House That Ruth Built, I’m slightly worried. Much has been said about his Home/Away splits. After the Montero/Pineda trade, some of it was said here. He’s young so there’s plenty of time to see how well he adjusts. For now, I’m going to let someone else take the chance on him. What it really comes down to is it’s not very difficult to find solid starters, so there’s no reason to take unnecessary risk. 2012 Projections: 14-9/3.75/1.15/180
42. Adam Wainwright – The notes coming out of Spring Training can talk about how Wainwright did Tommy John surgery like Jon Stewart did Tucker Carlson. Won’t matter to me. I’m not going anywhere near him. Someone would have to don a mustache and feathered hair wig and impersonate me in order for him to show up on any of my teams. 2012 Projections: 12-7/3.75/1.28/140 in 160 innings
43. Roy Oswalt – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Garcia. I call this tier, “Guys that no one seems that excited about that I’ll draft.” We’re solidly in the class of pitchers here that will probably be a solid number 3, which usually stands for the vomit you have while you’re crapping, but in this case it’s a fantasy pitcher that doesn’t compete for the Cy Young but can anchor your staff like a metal piercing. As of right now, it looks like Oswalt will sign with the Red Sox, which would make the most sense for both. The Red Sox need a starter and Oswalt needs overalls and a tractor which the Red Sox would help pay for cause they need a starter. See, both are happy. Oswalt pitched well enough in the bandbox called Citizens Flank so I wouldn’t be worried about him in Fenway. At this point in his career, he is who he is no matter where he plays. 2012 Projections: 14-10/3.65/1.22/140
44. Jhoulys Chacin – I think there’s an outside chance we get a number one starter out of Chacin and I almost ranked him in the top 40 starter post. What ended up having me rank him here instead is threefold. First fold, his walks can be a bit obnoxious. Two fold, his K-rate dropped last year. Three fold, whoever heard of a three fold? Do they have a threefold on your planet? If Chacin can regain his K-rate and just reduce his walks by one per nine innings, you have yourself a top 20 starter. All aboard! Actually, all excited! 2012 Projections: 12-10/3.60/1.26/175
45. Trevor Cahill – When he went to the Diamondbacks, I said, “Even if his new ballpark is slightly more favorable for hitters, he’s got a solid sinker and he’s going to be facing the Giants, Padres and Dodgers, the Moe, Larry and Curly of lineups. I didn’t like Cahill at all the last two years, but I’m willing to reevaluate. I’m not stubborn. *through clenched teeth* Fine, he looks draftable now!” And that’s me quoting me! 2012 Projections: 12-10/3.60/1.35/160
46. Jaime Garcia – You want another thing this tier could be called? Fantasy starters that should be around a 3.50 ERA, but aren’t going to strike out 200 guys. After I said I didn’t like Wainwright or Carpenter, I was getting letters from the Vatican that I had something against Cardinals. See, I like Jaime Garcia, so it’s not a Jew thing. Though Dave Dinkins might think there’s some truth to the conspiracy since now I’m just liking a “Hymie.” 2012 Projections: 11-9/3.65/1.30/160
47. Neftali Feliz – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Holland. I call this tier, “I have problems with Ranger starters.” Arlington is basically the AL version of Coors and I’m not getting involved in that shizz. Here’s what I said earlier in the offseason when it was announced Feliz would start, “His K-rate last year was a huge shambles or Suge Hambles if you roll with rap impresarios who are into spoonerisms. I’m not sure how a closer could even have a K-rate of 7.80 with Feliz’s stuff. I’m not just saying that to sound stupid, though it probably doesn’t hurt. His fastball, curve and change were all the same velocity as previous years. He added in a slider, but adding that shouldn’t have killed his shizz. Hitters were just making good contact, or, at least, better contact and not getting as fooled. His walks also went through the roof. I mean, 30 walks and 54 Ks in 62 1/3 innings is terrible. Who are you, Kevin Gregg? But as we know from Dempster and C.J. Wilson’s transition to being a starter, Feliz is probably going to have the best year of his young career. I’ll be on the outside looking in though, feels like too much risk to me.” And that’s me quoting me! 2012 Projections: 10-6/3.55/1.20/95 in 120 innings
48. Colby Lewis – Last year he proved fresh off the bloat shouldn’t be restricted to Asians. His K-rate and ground ball rate went down and his fly balls went up. In Arlington, that’s basically standing on the balcony with coke on your nose, firing a machine gun at dozens of people who are firing back. Ron Washington, “Must we mention coke?” Lewis’s ERA ballooned to 4.40 and he was shot. This year? He’ll be slightly better, but I see no reason to stick my neck out for him. He’s a pig that don’t fly straight. 2012 Projections: 14-11/4.00/1.20/180
49. Derek Holland – Holland is an interesting name in this tier. Post All-Star break he had an ERA of 3.06 while pre-All-Star break was only 4.68. Shows you that there’s some good Holland days and some bad Holland days, usually because of the whisking of the eggs. I’m not convinced that he’s going to give you those post-All-Star break stats over the full year. His September BABIP was .211, which helped give him a 2.20 ERA and bolster his 2nd half stats. If he’s around late enough, I could see possibly gambling on him, but my pitchers I drafted before him will have to be less risky. 2012 Projections: 13-8/4.00/1.32/180
50. Justin Masterson – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Hellickson. I call this tier, “They got lucky last year. If you draft one this year, you’re pressing your luck and may get whammied.” Most of the guys in this tier are ranked below where I saw them in most mocks and other ‘pert rankings. If you see one of these pitchers going lower than I have them ranked, then you might want to gamble on one but they are due for a regression. To put that more succinctly, I’d try to avoid these guys. To put that even more succinctly, try to avoid. Even more succinctly, avoid. Most succinctly, av–. Masterson had a 6.58 K/9 last year with a 3.64 xFIP. Not terrible marks. He gets a lot of ground balls, which is good, but, if he has just a bit of bad luck with those, his ERA is going to look ugly. Worth avoiding on that risk. 2012 Projections: 10-10/3.85/1.32/160
51. Tim Hudson - For full disclosure purposes — or porpoises, if you live in the sea — Hudson was originally ranked with Oswalt, but news just came out recently that Hudson may miss all of April due to his offseason back surgery. If Hudson were younger, I’d consider an earlier timetable that says he could be back mid-April, but there’s no reason to take on an older pitcher who’s already hurting. 2012 Projections: 11-9/3.65/1.18/120
52. Doug Fister – His walks… His BABIP… His men left on base… His homers allowed… His uncanny ability to sing Kyrie from memory whenever someone calls him Mr. Fister…. They are all too good to be true. I don’t think Fister will be unusable, but I also don’t think he’ll be a top 40 starter as most ‘perts have him. 2012 Projections: 12-10/3.85/1.18/140
53. Ervin Santana – He improved his walk and K-rate last year, but also got a bit lucky with his BABIP. He’s a tough one to call. He’ll either be a 3.75 ERA guy with around 180 Ks and 15+ wins, or he’ll be a 4-something ERA that just frustrates you from start to start. I think it’s going to be more of the latter, if latter means the 2nd one. Last year he threw a lot of sliders — more than anyone in the league and that’s reason enough to let someone else look to Ervin for magic. 2012 Projections: 12-12/4.00/1.30/170
54. Jair Jurrjens – If you’ve read this site for a minute (which is actually a long time if you go by the urbandictionary definition), you know how I feel about Jar-Jar. You are just as likely to get his 2010 stats (4.64 ERA) as you are getting his 2011 (2.96 ERA). Actually, that’s not true. The stats say you should get a 4-something ERA every time out. If you’re feeling lucky, then play the lottery and then go wash that Jurrjens right outta your fantasy team crosshairs. 2012 Projections: 11-9/4.15/1.35/100
55. Clay Buchholz – For any full season (which is very rare for Buchholz), he’s yet to have an xFIP under 4. <sarcastic>Yay.</sarcastic> He’s yet to have a K-rate over 7. <sarcastic>Yippee.</sarcastic> His walk rate for his major league career is 3.72. <sarcastic>Terrific.</sarcastic> 2012 Projections: 10-6/4.25/1.30/125
56. Jeremy Hellickson – I saw Hellickson ranked around 30-ish overall for starters at other sites so I feel like I’m comfortable telling you to ignore him this late. For some reason if he’s still around when you get this low into your draft, ignore him further. Don’t go near him. I’m not saying this because I was accused in the comments at the top 10 for 2012 fantasy baseball of being a Rays fan after my ranking of Longoria. When are people gonna figure out that I don’t care about teams only about players? I’m excited about McCutchen and Alex Presley, I don’t care about the Pirates. I loved me some Matt Kemp last year, hated Andre Ethier. The examples go on and on. Sorry about this totally unfunny rant, but nothing annoys me more than being called bias. I take this non-paying job way too serious! As for Hellickson, his K-rate was 5.57 last year. That’s good…For underhanded softball. His xFIP last year was 4.72. Sidney Ponson called and said stop stealing his xFIP. Hellickson was lucky to not have a 6-something ERA last year. Do not draft. 2012 Projections: 10-9/4.30/1.25/130
57. Jonathan Sanchez – This is a new tier. This tier goes into the top 80 starters for 2012 fantasy baseball. I call this tier, “Holy crap, there were a lot of starters I didn’t like in this post. Let’s see some names I like. Please.” Glad to be outta that last tier that is going to elicit so many comments of this variety, “Why rank Hellickson above Jonathan Sanchez if you’d draft Sanchez and not Hellickson?” Jonathan Sanchez and other names in this tier are coming with a lot of risk. I like them, but I’m not reaching for them until I see some other schmohawk draft Colby Lewis or Fister or Neftali or Hellickson et al (which is not the Israeli airline). My projections for the players in this tier I like may even look better than some of the players above them, but there’s a lot of risk hurdles for these players to jump to get to those projections. For instance, there’s a much better chance Hudson reaches his projections than Sanchez comes anywhere near his. I like these pitchers, but they are flyers. You should know there’s no guarantee with these guys. They may be number two fantasy starters or they may be off your team by April 15th. As for Sanchez, his nickname Filthy Sanchez is perfect for him. It’s filthy as in good and filthy as in bad. He can strike out double digit hitters in a game or he can give up 12 baserunners in 4 innings. A lot of times he gives you both. 2012 Projections: 12-11/3.95/1.35/185
58. Vance Worley – I think his 2011, which was fantastic, is partly due to hitters not being familiar with him. He had a 8+ K/9 and a 3.66 xFIP. Alone those numbers say he was a hotter piece of ass than his mother, Jo Anne Worley, ever was. I think, unfortunately, Worley is a candidate for a sophomore slump. That’s my gut talking though (unless those noises are coming from further south on my body). When the gut talks, you listen or you end up needing an antacid. 2012 Projections: 12-9/3.75/1.27/130
59. Mike Minor – I almost put Julio “The Sheik” Teheran here. Who’s the Braves fifth starter? Can we just draft “Braves fifth starter?” Is that legal? The heat is off Minor to be good and I will love him once again. Last year I told you to draft him in every league, then when the Braves announced Beachy would be in the rotation instead, I told everyone to draft Beachy. Minor? He major. Nothing wrong with the stuff. If anything, he’s a year older (24) and can have a huge breakout. Last year he threw over a 180 IP between the Braves and Triple-A, so if he pitches well, he might just throw 200 innings. Yeah, there will be more mention of him this preseason. 2012 Projections: 10-8/3.65/1.28/170 (<–optimistic, but whatevs)
60. Wandy Rodriguez – He’s exactly the pitcher he was last year (3.49 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 166 Ks), plus or minus .20 in ERA and 20 Ks. He’s more or less overlooked because he’s on the Astros (shoot, people who work for the Astros overlook them) and he has little to no upside. Will his numbers be better than Worley? Prolly. Would I draft Worley first? Prolly. There’s something to be said for upside. If you’re not excited for your team in March, how excited will you be in June? Look at February Grey getting philosophical! I’m one upping Socrates. I’m Mo’crates! That might just be my rapper name too. Yo, mo’ money, Mo’Crates! Mo’ money, Mo’Crates! Mo’ money, Mo’Crates! I drink cream soda and I rock a toga! King Minos got a powerful navy, and, yo, my beard and hair is wavy! Try and read about me from Plato and your head will turn to mush… Nah, gravy! Mo’ money, Mo’Crates! 2012 Projections: 10-10/3.65/1.30/170
Being that we’re discussing fantasy baseball here, I feel compelled to focus on the measurables of the players I highlight, and justifiably so; the game we’re playing is based entirely on these calculable elements, after all. This group of Rangers prospects, however, is difficult to calculate. We’re dealing with a first-year guy out of Japan, a second-year guy out of Cuba, an 18-year-old, and a handful of promising arms who’ve yet to pan out, production-wise. There are, of course, some exceptions. Both Mike Olt and Jurickson Profar impressed in A-ball. Neil Ramirez had nice marks, too, and De Los Santos struck out, like, everyone. But for the most part, the numbers here aren’t the attraction. The potential is the attraction. That’s not to suggest that I’m not excited about these Texas Rangers prospects. Actually, I really look forward to tracking this system and I believe it’ll produce significant fantasy value in years to come – 2012 included.
Arizona Fall League Players – Surprise Saguaros
Miguel De Los Santos (RHP); Ryan Kelly (RHP); Neil Ramirez (RHP); Johan Yan (RHP); Elio Sarmiento (C); Leury Garcia (SS); Mike Olt (3B); Ryan Strausborger (OF)
Martin played at four levels in 2011, from rookie ball to MLB. The 23-year-old Cuban will be competing for the Rangers’ center field job this spring. If he wins the job, his immediate value will be mostly defensive. The Rangers are confident he’ll blossom into a quality leadoff hitter, but I haven’t seen enough to endorse that sentiment. Certainly keep an eye on him this spring.
Grey offers his thoughts on Darvish here. Erik, too, has posted regarding Yu. Hype abounds. Darvish won’t go cheaply, but he’ll be very productive for fantasy purposes. I’m intrigued. I think I’ll be in on the bidding.
Perez features three plus offerings, including a mid-90′s fastball, a changeup and a curve. Command, it seems, is the only thing holding the 20-year-old back at this point. After struggling in 10 Triple-A starts last season, Perez is in line to return to Round Rock for 2012. The Rangers have pushed him along rather quickly thus far, and there’s no reason to believe they won’t continue to do so. Provided he shows improved consistency, he’ll be a nice candidate for a midseason call up.
While his stuff isn’t quite as impressive as Perez’s, Ramirez might be a safer option if the Rangers need a starter at any point. His command is Major League-ready and he’s added a changeup to his repertoire. Texas might choose to use him in their bullpen to begin with, but Ramirez projects as a mid-rotation starter.
At 18 years old, Profar is very young, but he’s a guy you’ll want to keep an eye on as he climbs the ladder. With 57 XBH in 516 trips to the plate in 2011, it’s clear that he’s ready for High-A, perhaps more. It’ll be interesting to see how the Rangers handle Profar’s development, with Elvis Andrus occupying shortstop for the foreseeable future. Regarded as a top-ten overall prospect, Jurickson is a name to remember.
Here’s another guy who is currently blocked at his natural position. With Adrian Beltre holding down third, Olt, too, is in line for a position change if he is to arrive in Texas any time soon. Perhaps more likely, the Rangers will look to use Olt as trade-bait. In which case, the 23-year-old could be manning 3rd for a team like the Cubs come August.
Scheppers features a filthy fastball that touches 100, but his command has struggled along the way and there are health concerns. With his stuff, though, he’s not far from the Major League bullpen. Unfortunately, the Rangers have quite a few impressive arms ahead of him in their pen. Fantasy relevance is a ways away at this point.
A 13.5 K/9 in 2011 is certainly worth noting. A 5.04 ERA is less so. He needs to maintain command of his fastball if he is to be effective at higher levels, but ridiculous strikeout numbers stand out.
The royal we just went over the top 20 starters for 2012 fantasy baseball. For those that skipped the title, this post is the top 40 starters for 2012 fantasy baseball. If you’re looking for the hitters, it’s under the 2012 fantasy baseball rankings, which is also at the top of the page. Barring unusual circumstances, I usually try to grab two starters from this list of twenty. So I’ll have one starter from the first twenty and two from this, which gives me three. Math’s been berry, berry good to me! Anyway, here’s the top 40 starters for 2012 fantasy baseball:
21. Daniel Hudson – This tier started in the top 20 starters for 2012 fantasy baseball. This tier goes from here until Anibal. I called this tier, “Am I crazy with these rankings? Yeah, crazy like a fox!” In 2011, Hudson’s K/9 was 6.85 as he struck out only 169. That seems like the absolute basement and I’m banking on him striking out quite a few more guys in 2012. In Triple-A, he had a K/9 of 10.41 and in 2010 he had 7.93 in the majors. He had the third fastest, um, fastball in the Senior Circuit, but hitters made decent contact with pitches outside of the strike zone. I expect that’ll change in 2012 and he’ll bump up his K-rate by at least 1. To show my love, I almost put him in the top 20 starters. Instead, he’s in an extended tier that started there. I can only give so much love. 2012 Projections: 14-8/3.40/1.18/190
22. Jordan Zimmermann – I’ve ranked Zimmermann on the high side, but I was thinking about how it probably won’t matter. Last year everyone and their lunch had an ERA under 3. If that happens again, and I see no reason why it won’t, then there will be dozens of pitchers to own. You’ll probably be able to draft Greinke, Zimmermann and wait seventy picks. I’ll go over more about drafting strategy later. As for Zimmermann, the K-rate will be better this year and if he holds the gains he made with his walk rate, he might just be a top 10 pitcher this year. Yes, the Nats will be good. 2012 Projections: 14-6/3.25/1.15/170
23. Matt Garza – In 2009, Garza had a K/9 of 8.38 for the Rays. I mention this so it doesn’t seem that outlandish to think he can repeat his K/9 from last year of 8.95. Is he as sexy a name as the others in this tier? Nope. Can he be as productive? Maybe more so. I wouldn’t let it worry me too much that Epstein seems absolutely dead set on moving Garza. Shizz happens as Forret Gump invented, don’t let it play too much into your drafting. 2012 Projections: 12-10/3.40/1.25/190
24. Anibal Sanchez – I shocked myself with this ranking. Nearly fell off my Barclay Lounger! Anibal was that good last year? He (she?) was! His K/9 of 9.26 and BB/9 of 2.93 were the best rates of his career. Is there a chance he goes back into the junk drawer this year? I guess, but why? He’ll be 28 years old and entering his third full year, if you exclude his early years when he bounced back and forth between the minors and majors, battling injuries. I love Anibal this year and I’m not sure if that should make me feel uncomfortable because of his gender-confusing first name. I’m gonna type up a manifesto about my Anibal love in the weeks to come. I may even type it up using only the blinks of my eyes to show how dedicated I am. He is the Marlins’ ace. Screw Josh Johnson and the stretcher he rode in on! 2012 Projections: 15-8/3.50/1.24/190
25. Josh Johnson – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Hanson. I call this tier, “The ‘perts that are taking these guys are puff, puff, puffing; I’m passing.” Josh Johnson and his porn star brother, Gosh, can show up at my house and plead their case for me drafting Johnson, and I will not. Because of injury risk, I’m down on Johnson. Okay, maybe I could’ve reworded that. Someone can tattoo how healthy Johnson will be this year on the inside of my eyelids and I’ll ignore it. I will not read one single “He’s healthier than he’s ever been in his life!” report from Spring Training. Maybe we’ll see each again in 2013. For now, I’m like John Bobbitt and I’m without Johnson. 2012 Projections: 10-3/2.75/1.05/100 in 110 IP
26. Ian Kennedy – My feelings against Kennedy aren’t quite as extreme as Johnson. He’s just being overdrafted because of his 21 wins from last year. If he had 15 wins, no one would’ve said anything about him not being in the top 20. Who knew there were so many Murray Chasses (Chassi?) out there. He’ll be lucky to get 15 wins this year. Also, you throw in the fact he’s more of a 3.50 ERA pitcher than a 2.88 ERA that he was in 2011 and it’s yet another reason to avoid. Will he shat the bed? I guess it depends on what he eats, but I doubt it. He made improvements on his K-rate and walk rate, but I still don’t trust him for where he’s being drafted and won’t pay the price. And for all those haters who think I’m stupid for avoiding Kennedy, I go back to the fact there are a gazillion, give or take a million, starters to choose from. If I’m having concerns about one guy, you’ll excuse me if I avoid him and take one of the other gazillion (plus or minus a million) pitchers. 2012 Projections: 15-10/3.50/1.12/180
27. Yu Darvish – I already went over my Yu Darvish fantasy. It’s sexy and I know it. 2012 Projections: 14-7/3.60/1.10/190
28. Josh Beckett – Red State Jeter is just too flaky for me. One year — 2.89 ERA; another year — 5.78 ERA. What he actually is is (stutterer!) a 3.75 ERA pitcher. What side of the 3.75 ERA bed Beckett wakes up no one knows, except for maybe some country singer no one’s ever heard of. 2012 Projections: 14-9/3.60/1.20/185
29. Ricky Romero – For full disclosure purposes — or porpoises if dolphins are reading — I almost put Romero in the sexy name tier. He seemed to fit in there better than Garza, but when it came down to it, I wanted Garza more than I wanted Romero. Last year, Romero had an ERA of 2.92 but an xFIP of 3.80. Romero — what a joker! His K-rate two of the last three years has been 7.13 and 7.12. Um, they’re okay. Finally, a cool name and an uncanny resemblance to LL Cool J does not make him sexy for fantasy. Sorry, RR Cool Jay. 2012 Projections: 13-12/3.75/1.20/170
30. James Shields – Shields and Beckett are tomato-tomato with a different emphasis. Good Ks, all over the map with their ERAs. What I’m looking for from starters is the most trustworthy names I can find (even if Gallardo and Greinke don’t feel trustworthy). Like a 1800′s soldier who just saw his first gun fired, I just don’t trust Shields. 2012 Projections: 13-11/3.70/1.25/190
31. Tommy Hanson – I felt like mmmdropping Hanson even lower, but settled on him here in a tier where I’m saying others are drafting these guys before me, i.e., I won’t own them, I before E except in Teixeira, I hope everyone can follow to not draft Hanson. Think Hanson can be a Cy Young-type for many years, but I don’t trust his shoulder to be right this year. I doubt 200 regular season innings is going to improve that. 2012 Projections: 9-7/3.75/1.20/130 in 120 IP
32. Matt Moore – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Luebke. I call this tier, “Yummo!” I already went over my Matt Moore fantasy. I wrote it while buying a Pacman-shaped potato chip on eBay. 2012 Projections: 10-7/3.15/1.20/160 in 150 innings
33. Max Scherzer – I already went over my Max Scherzer 2012 fantasy. There’s lots of love in that post. If you read it in the dark, you can almost feel my erection. 2012 Projections: 14-8/3.70/1.30/195
34. Ubaldo Jimenez – Look at me giving Ubaldo another chance. I’m one forgiving ess oh bee (except when it comes to Brian Bonsall ruining Family Ties). Last year Ubaldo held his K-rate from his terrific season in 2010, but just had a bit of crappy luck. I don’t expect a sub-3 ERA, but he’s also not the 4.68 ERA guy he was last year. If I’m right, this is good news for all the Colorado-area parents that named their kids after Ubaldo back in 2010. The bad news, they have to move to Cleveland. 2012 Projections: 13-10/3.65/1.27/190
35. Shaun Marcum – Member when March Grey said Marcum would start the 2011 All-Star Game? What a dog-faced fool! March Grey, “There’s more of me in you than you care to admit! All of you!” Look at you grandstanding like you’re Al Pacino. March Grey, “Hoo-ah!” Marcum didn’t take a step forward last year like I thought he might with the move to the NL, but he still performed admirably and if he has even the slightest of gains, he’ll have a great year. If he just repeats last year, it’s still solid. 2012 Projections: 12-8/3.60/1.17/160
36. Brandon Beachy – Here’s a guy that could jump to the top 10 for next year or bomb and become a sleeper for 2013. If he can turn in 170 innings with his 10+ K/9, you’re looking at a pitcher that is going to exceed this ranking by a lot. If something sophomore slumpy happens, then you’re gonna have a wasted draft pick on your virtual hands. Of course, his season may not be that cut and dry and be somewhere between those two predictions. But what fun is that? (BTW, there’s no reason to ask why Beachy is below other guys that have worse projections. Beachy has more risk because of the lack of track record, hence the ranking.) 2012 Projections: 12-7/3.45/1.18/190 in 170 innings
37. Brandon Morrow – I already wrote a Brandon Morrow 2012 fantasy sleeper post. A real snoozer in the inverse. 2012 Projections: 13-9/3.85/1.28/210
38. Cory Luebke – Out first appearance of a Hodgepadre in the starter rankings. I can’t believe I haven’t written a sleeper post on Luebke yet, but that’ll all change after I fill my Adderall prescription. Last year, Luebke had a K-rate of 9.92 and a xFIP of 3.02. You need more? You shouldn’t. But fine, for you anything! He can control his walks to the tune of under a 2 BB/9, as he did in the minors. He’s only 26 years old (as of this writing) and he pitches in Petco. When I say giddy, you say up. Giddy… Up! Giddy… Up! P. Diddy… Up! Fooled you. 2012 Projections: 9-8/3.25/1.09/170
39. Chris Carpenter – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until the top 60 starters for 2012 fantasy baseball. I call this tier, “Might be fine, won’t be fine on my teams.” I’ve never been a fan of Carpenter. His Ks are solid, his ERAs are solid, his WHIPs are solid. My dislike is unwarranted, basically. Right? Or not right? He’s only topped 200 Ks once in his career and that was back in 2005 when he threw 241 2/3 innings. Anyone who owned him last year when he was 1-7 with a 4.47 ERA and a 1.39 WHIP as of June 17th, probably won’t go near him this year either. We can be friends. Wait by your phone, I’ll call you. 2012 Projections: 13-10/3.65/1.25/165
40. Johnny Cueto – I’ve liked Cueto since he emerged on the scene. Liked him even more when he Zabka’d LaRue. We’re gonna take a break this year. His peripherals last year were a mess. 6 K/9, 3.90 xFIP, crazy low BABIP… Crouching Cueto, Hidden Dragon Breath Stats. 2012 Projections: 11-6/3.80/1.25/130
Max Scherzer has been almost exactly the same pitcher the last three years. He pitches around a 3.75 xFIP then fights Nazis in the offseason. (He sure is limber for being thousands of years old, made of mud and having two different color eyes!) I say almost because his strikeout rate fell a tad in 2011, but nothing that I’m worried about. His velocity was fully populated with speedballs. Gas at 93 MPH on average. Sometimes turning the heat up to 98 just to confuse thermometers. Three years under his belt and he’s going to be 27 years old for half the season. Don’t think we’ve seen the best of what Scherzer has to offer. Can you tell my excitement. I can’t even make complete sentences. What’s got me even more excited for 2012? He cut his walk rate last year. To borrow a yokelism that no one says, that was the big junebug in his bonnet and he eradimacated it. So what can we expect of Max Scherzer for 2012 fantasy baseball and what makes him a sleeper?
He’s not a Nolasco or a Morrow. He doesn’t perpetually have an out-of-whack xFIP or FIP or OMUPS (Other Made Up Stat). In 2010 his ERA was actually better than his xFIP. Does this matter? I’m not sure it does, but it makes me feel a lot more confident knowing that he’s not cursed every year. As previously mentioned, his K-rate fell last year, but it looks like it was an anomaly rather than a trend. So a pitcher that is between 185 and 200 Ks a year that always has a 3.75ish xFIP is a solid number two. Hey, Grey, I’m flush with solid number twos! Thanks, Random Italicized Voice. Yes, a number two that gives you a 3.75 ERA isn’t Cy Young material, but a pitcher with Scherzer’s K upside can give you a 3.30 ERA with 200+ Ks. Now we’re in number one starter territory. I see his line at 14-8/3.70/1.30/195 with upside for more. (Bee tee dubya, we ARE putting aside that I call him a sleeper every year. Thanks for not mentioning that!) The only man that can beat The Detroit Golem? The Verlander!
February 02, 2012 by: Albert Lang Category:
2012 Fantasy Baseball, 2012 Fantasy Baseball Draft, 2012 Fantasy Baseball Sleepers
February 02, 2012 by: Grey 
February 01, 2012 by: Scott Evans 
