Fantasy Baseball Advice

Sometime in 2009 it finally clicked in the collective Pirates brain that they needed to stop playing for now since they weren’t playing well for now anyway.  And with that kernel of “ah-ha,” the Pirates sent McLousy off the plank and ushered in Andrew McCutchen, The Dread Pirate.  The Dread Pirate proceeded to climb to the top of the sinking Pirate ship’s mast, tore a string from the Jolly Roger and swashbuckled his way into the hearts and minds of his fantasy owners and the seven Pirate season ticket holders.  Ahoy, Jonesy, drive me in after I steal this base. Gar.  And get me some mead, Ol’ Chumbucket! That’s you, Steven Pearce. You are Ol’ Chumbucket! Argh, don’t make me explain it. Yes, The Dread Pirate brought life where there wasn’t any for 2009, but what about in 2010 fantasy baseball, more of the same booty?

In 433 at-bats last year, McCutchen hit 12 homers with 22 steals while batting .286.  Below those numbers, we see a guy who consistently hits the ball on the ground more than in the air in 2009 and 2008 (in Triple-A, his GB vs. FB percentages were 49.4 vs. 32.2).  This is good for a guy who relies on his speed to get on base.  The power he showed last year may be slightly fluky.  After all, he did hit 8 homers in August, which seems extreme for him.  I.e., I wouldn’t expect a huge gain in homers in 2010.  Maybe 15 homers max.  His walk rate was a bit high last year, but he did show a good eye for when he should/should not swing.  With his speed and 15 homer power, he’s definitely a 2010 fantasy baseball keeper.  Think 80/14/65/.275/35.  For redraft leagues, The Dread Pirate can be someone who can provide more value than his draft spot, potentially taking a jump into the top 20 outfielders for 2010… Top 20 outfielders for 2010.  Aye, me parrot concurs.

First, I looked for anecdotal evidence on Mr. Stanton.  I found in 2007 the Red Sox offered to trade Manny to the Marlins, while paying his salary, for Mike Stanton.  The Marlins obviously refused.  Interesting, but the last time Marlins traded a prospect for a big name was exactly never.  Still, the Marlins (along with others) saw something in the then 17-year-old.  At 18, Stanton didn’t disappoint.  In Single-A, he hit 39 homers while slashing .293/.381/.611.  There’s light tower power in his man-frame of 6′5″, 210 lbs. (for those in San Diego, that’s 3 and a half David Ecksteins, but only three-quarters of a Kyle Blanks.  Or Blanks sans afro.).  Last year, Stanton continued his assault on minor league pitching in High-A, then hit his first roadblock at Double-A.  Unable to make the necessary adjustments, he saw the one part of his game that was exploitable exploited.  He’s a hacker.  Even when he hit the 39 homers in 125 games in A, he struck out 153 times.  Last year, he K’d 99 times in 79 Double-A games, which led to .231/.311/.455.  By far his worst showing in his young career.  (Scouting the Unknown took a further look at Mike Stanton’s minor league numbers in July.)  He’s still very young and he was killing it (<–courtesy of T.J. Lavin) in the Arizona Fall League.  Leading the league with a .478 average through 6 games, when he was shut down with a sore back.  Supposedly, it was just precautionary and he’ll be fine for Spring Training.  So what can we expect of Mike Stanton for 2010 fantasy baseball?

I expect him to be given a chance in Spring Training to show off his ginourmous power, but be sent to Double-A to start the season.  If he can make the necessary adjustments, we can see him around mid-season.  For all their frugality, the Marlins aggressively promote/play their prospects (then trade them when they hit arbitration. Lates, Uggla.).  He’ll only be 20 in 2010 and still might be a full year away from contributing in fantasy.  I wouldn’t touch Stanton in one year leagues until he is definitely playing on the Marlins.  In deep NL-Only and keeper leagues, he should be owned coming out of your 2010 fantasy baseball draft.

Los Angeles Angels 2009 Minor League Review
Overall farm ranking via Baseball America:
2009 (25) | 2008 (10) | 2007 (4) | 2006 (4) | 2005 (1) | 2004 (3)

Major League Record and Minor League Affiliates Records
MLB: 97 – 65 (AL West – Won Division)
AAA: 72 – 71 (Pacific Coast League)
AA: 61 – 79 (Texas League)
A+: 61 – 79 (California League)
A: 78 – 60 (Midwest League)
A(ss): 51 – 25 (Pioneer League)
R: 38 – 18 (Arizona League)

The Run Down
The tragic loss of Nick Adenhart hurt on both a personal and organizational level. Adenhart was clearly their most major league ready player and could have provided an immediate impact (ignoring for the moment that Brandon Wood could do much the same, however he is no longer a rookie). The Angels truly don’t have a pitcher in their minors that is going to provide the dynamics that Adenhart would have. Now the Angels have to decide what to do with John Lackey and Chone Figgins pending free agency scenarios. Just recently, the Angels resigned Bobby Abreu to a three year contract that addressed a need that their minors aren’t quite ready to do. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Angels sign Lackey and let Figgins walk giving Wood his shot at the everyday starting third baseman. The trade for Scott Kazmir removed an above average hitter in Sean Rodriguez and one of their left-handed pitching prospects in #24 ranked Alex Torres. Torres finally put together a good year this year and I will mention him in the Rays Minor Review in the end of January/February.

Graduating Prospects
#5 – Sean O’Sullivan, #6 – Kevin Jepsen

Players in Arizona Fall League
Pitchers – Marco Albano, Jeremy Haynes, Tim Kiely, Tommy Mendoza
Hitters – #7 – Hank Conger (C ), #14 – Ryan Mount (2B), PJ Philips (SS)

Players of Interest
*Reminder that the “Players of Interest” section includes prospects that may have the ability to be called upon in the upcoming season. However, this doesn’t mean they will.

Hitters
Brandon Wood | 3B | 24 | AAA | .293/.353/.557 | 386 AB | 28 2B | 4 3B | 22 HR | 80:36 K:BB | .264 ISO
He has been the Angels’ number one prospect from 2006 to 2008, however, he accumulated enough at-bats in 2008 to remove his rookie label. Not to be dismissed from any promising young players conversation, Wood has the talent to produce at the major league level, it’s just a matter of playing time. In 1237 career at-bats in Triple-A, he has hit .287/.354/.547 with 76 homers (that’s about one homer every 16 at-bats) and a 310:126 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Halos Heaven had a good article about being patient with minor league prospects, talking about how Chase Utley and Ryan Howard weren’t up and producing in the majors until they were close to 26 and 27, respectfully. With Figgins possibly leaving in free agency, Wood may finally get his chance to play every day. Think a full season of Gordon Beckham – my predictions 80/22/75/.275/2. (I would bet the house that Grey will write about him sometime this winter.)

#3 – Peter Bourjos | CF | 22 | AA | .281/.354/.423 | 437 AB | 16 2B | 14 3B | 6 HR | 32/12 SB/CS | 77:49 K:BB | .142 ISO
MLB prints two top 50 prospect lists during the year. The first one at the beginning of the year, the second at the trade deadline. This year, Bourjos was ranked 42nd overall at the trade deadline re-rankings. Bourjos stole 50 bases in 2008, so those 32 steals this year aren’t a fluke. Additionally, he had seven outfield assists this year (11 in ‘08 and 10 in ‘07). Baseball America states that he has “… plus-plus speed,” but he’s a pretty hit-or-miss batter – struggling with plate-discipline. This year, he marginally improved his strikeout rate, and stepped up his walk rate by a far amount. Not that the Angels need him immediately, but they have a speedy outfielder on their hands that projects to be able to defend in center for years to come.

#7 – Hank Conger | C | 21 | AA | .295/.369/.424 | 458 AB | 20 2B | 11 HR | 68:55 K:BB | .129 ISO
Conger doubled his walk rate from 2008 (4.5% to 10.7%), and improved his caught stealing rate (to 30% from near 13% in 2008). However, he did regress in the power department as he did have an ISO of .214 in 2008 and .183 in 2007. He has had a string of injuries (hand, back, hamstring and a shoulder injury). Supposedly, he has immense power in his bat, but he tends to have poor plate-discipline (this was the first year he played a full season) – though he was considered the best hitter for average in the Angels farm system. Baseball America states that Conger, “… has All-Star potential if he can stay healthy.” With Napoli and Mathis still behind the plate, Conger may need to switch positions to see major league playing time in the near future. (Side note, his defense is sketchy at times and the Angels have already thought about switching his position.)

Pitchers
Trevor Bell | SP (RH) | 22 | AA/AAA/(MLB) | 5.7 K/9 | 2.2 BB/9 | 140 IP | 2.70 ERA | 1.14 WHIP | 1.36 GO/AO
Bell pitched 20 1/3 innings of major league baseball, but was annihilated to the tune of 9.74 ERA and a 2.51 WHIP. He split time at Double and Triple-A almost evenly (68 2/3 IP at Double-A and 71 1/3 IP at Triple-A). Not a high strikeout pitcher ever in his minor league career but he induces quite a few ground balls and keeps the ball in the park. Nothing spectacular, but he may get a shot out of spring training with the possibility of Lackey leaving (unless the Angels sign another starter).  Or he may get called up if an injury occurs.

#2 – Jordan Walden | SP (RH) | 21 | AA | 8.6 K/9 | 4.4 BB/9 | 60 IP | 5.25 ERA (3.77 FIP) | 1.68 WHIP
I mention Walden because he throws a 101 mph fastball that usually sits between 91 to 94 mph and a 87 mph slider. His fastball is considered one of the best fastballs in the entire Angels farm system. His change-up (prior to the 2009 season) was nearly non-existent. He may end up becoming a reliever with only two plus pitches.

#4 – Trevor Reckling | SP (LH) | 20 | A+/AA | 7.1 K/9 | 4.5 BB/9 | 2.68 ERA | 1.33 WHIP
I believe that Reckling may have passed Walden as the top ranked prospect in the Angels system (they traded Alex Torres away when they acquired Scott Kazmir). His control will need to be refined, but he has a nasty curve and a fastball that sits between 87 to 91 mph with a change-up considered his best offering. His ceiling is supposedly a #3 starter. Nothing special, but if he can control his curve better and build up his stamina, Reckling could be a serviceable fantasy pitcher.

Honorable Mentions
Hitters
Dillion Baird | 1B | 21 | R | .372/.452/.567 | 215 AB | 17 2B | 7 HR | 33:28 K:BB
Just drafted this year in round 11, Baird bombarded his rookie league with good plate discipline, gap power and a few homers. Kendry Morales definitely has his powerful swing sitting at first base for several more years, but Baird may eventually replace Morales.

Pitchers
#12 – William Smith | SP/RP (LH) | 19 | A | 7.4 K/9 | 1.7 BB/9 | 115 IP | 3.76 ERA | 1.16 WHIP
I was tempted to put him in the above section, but he probably won’t sniff the majors until late next year. He has amazing control (in 2008 his K:BB was 76:6 – good for a 9.4 K/9 and .74 BB/9). Not quite as good as he was last year, but his talent and skills (a 87 to 93 mph fastball, a plus curve, and an average change-up). Keep an eye on this youngster, maybe he’ll become their next John Lackey.

Josh Blanco | RP (LH) | 19 | R | 11.3 K/9 | 2.3 BB/9 | 50 1/3 IP | 3.04 ERA | 1.05 WHIP

Michael Kohn | RP (RH) | 23 | A/A+ | @A – 14.5 K/9 | 2.29 BB/9 | 37 IP | 2.19 ERA | .86 WHIP | @A+ – 13.5 K/9 | 4.40 BB/9 | 28 2/3 IP | .94 ERA | .94 WHIP (6 SV overall)
He is a bit old to be playing at High-A, but that strikeout rate is jaw-dropping, near drool worthy. He was drafted in 2008, and his BABIP is near league average at Single-A (.300) and was quite low at High-A (.256). However, his stat line was nearly identical. I don’t have much information on him, but stats like that shouldn’t go unnoticed.

This is what I’m hoping for… You know how in different cities — really just Philly, but I want it in different cities — there’s a core group of fans for a certain player and they personalize it with their own touch?  For instance, there was Padilla’s Flotilla, which saw fans paddling around in sombreros… Or The Wolf Pack, complete with werewolf masks… Or Moyer’s Lawyers; I hear they represented Mrs. Myers…  So at Nats home games, I want a group of fans dressed up in early-1900s, Austrian officer uniforms.  They can be the House of Strasburgs.  Every time Stephen Strasburg strikes someone out, they do the call and answer chant of, “Who’s house?” “Strasburg’s house!”  Then Mike Aubrey, the DC realtor with a Hitler ’stache, goose-steps through the bleachers and they all run for the hills, singing the title song from “The Sound of Music.”  Or not.  So much has already been written about Stephen Strasburg and he’s yet to throw a pitch for the Nats, but can he help you for 2010 fantasy baseball?

Maybe.  Best case scenario is a 3.50 ERA and 120 Ks in 100 innings after a June call-up.  Terrific, ownable, not draftable for where he’ll be taken.  (This doesn’t count for keepers.  There I can see going after him.)  Rookies are already risky endeavors.  Rookie pitchers, more so.  The last seven number one draft picks were Delmon Young, Matt Bush, Justin Upton, Luke Hochevar, David Price, Tim Beckham and Strasburg.  One guy in those seven helped you in 2009.  Two and a half guys are draftable for 2010.  Yes, for the first time in his life, Delmon Young is being considered a half of a man…. Like he’s any smaller than the 1/2 on that Charlie Sheen/Jon Cryer sitcom.  Right now, Strasburg is pitching just over a 5 ERA in 4 starts in the Arizona Fall League.  Doesn’t matter, he’ll probably still be hyped in 2010.  Wait to see how Strasburg pitches in the spring.  If he pitches well, cool, let someone else waste a higher than warranted draft pick on him, then watch Strasburg sit in the minors for a few months.  Strasburg should be a great one, but let some other poor schmuck get the ill-advised chest tattoo that reads, “Strasburg for Prez in 2010.”

This post was almost titled, “Alcides Escobar, 2010 Fantasy Sleeper As Long As The Brewers Don’t Make A Boneheaded Decision To Start Hardy At Shortstop.”  Lo and behold, the Brewers fermented their yeast and unloaded Hardy — Hardy knew you! — and have committed to Alcides.  With him and Rickie Weeks up the middle in 2010 (at least for the first few days of the season until Weeks gets hurt), it could be an exciting time to be a Brewers fan, assuming you’re a fan of hitting; their pitching could be scary.  Not scary good, but scary scary.  So with Alcides Escobar playing full-time at shortstop, what can we expect of him for 2010 fantasy baseball and what makes him a sleeper?

42 flippin’ steals in 109 games in Triple-A makes him a sleeper.  Dur.  You’re not liable to get much else from Alcides in 2010.  Last year, in 38 games with the Brewers he hit .304.  I wouldn’t trust that like I wouldn’t trust a drunk Christopher Walken on a boat.  (<– Obscure reference compliments of the book I was reading in Barnes & Noble on Saturday (no idea why he didn’t name it Heart to Heart (and don’t ask me why I was reading it))).  In a full season of at-bats, Escobar will probably be ranked in the bottom 20 hitters for walks to strikeouts.  In 6 seasons of the minor leagues, he only walked 140 times in 2571 at-bats.  Blech.  So he needs to hit to get on base.  He does beat the ball into the ground, which is a good thing for a burner.  Still, I think you’re looking at a max .275 hitter in 2010.  He can chuck in a few homers, as well.  But you’re not drafting him for that.  What you want is steals, and he’ll provide ‘em.  I’d compare him to 2009 Elvis Andrus.  Not much, not much, steals.  Alcides Escobar is a 2010 fantasy baseball sleeper and exactly the kind of guy I’d look at late for MI.