Don’t ask me how I stumbled across this (*cough* Wikipedia *cough*), but today I learned that a “toxophilite” is a “lover or devotee of archery; an archer.” And that’s me and Stream-o-Nator both today: lovers of Chris Archer versus the Rangers. Archers and Rangers! I feel like I’m assembling a party for Dungeons & Dragons rather than a lineup for FanDuel. Or maybe I’m just reading too much fantasy right now (Lev Grossman and The Magicians series! Spoiler: it’s awesome! It’s the Narnia books crossed with Catcher in the Rye!) and jonesing for a quest of some sort. Anyway, as usual, I’ll throw out some ideas for how your ragtag squad of adventurers might come together — more details below, but in summary it’s a good day for cheap-ish pitching and good stacking. Let’s restring our bows, fill our quivers, and practice sliding our swords in and out of our scabbards so we don’t look like dummies, and get to it.

New to FanDuel? Scared of feeling like a small fish in a big pond? Well, be sure to read our content and subscribe to the DFSBot  for your daily baseball plays. Just remember to sign up through us before jumping into the fray. It’s how we know you care!

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We recorded the podcast too early to discuss the Tyler O’Neill for Marco Gonzales trade, but maybe that was for the best because Ralph Lifshitz and I were liable to wax poetic about “The King of the North” for the entire hour. Long story short, it really doesn’t change either of their fantasy values all that much other than the obligatory NL to AL drop for Gonzales. We did record the podcast right on time to get into the Blake Rutherford and JD Martinez trades, though, along with Yoan Moncada’s long awaited MLB debut. We talked Rafael Devers and Derek Fisher knocking on the door of the majors, and then dove deep into lower minor breakouts, including Michel Baez, Starling Heredia, Jahmai Jones, Royce Lewis, Heliot Ramos, and many more. Finally, we hammer home the insanely high quality of RotoWear.com‘s t-shirts, and implore you to head over there and enter promo code “SAGNOF” for 15% off. It’s the latest edition of the Razzball Fantasy Baseball Prospect Podcast:

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Like a kindergartner who just discovered boogers, I was digging into exit velocity and launch angle, because, ya know, these are important things now.  Is it me or does it feel like sabermetricians think they’ve reinvented the wheel every six months only to abandon all the new stuff in six months for something else?  “This is Marvin!  Marvin Berry, your cousin!  Yo, put down your ERA+ and VORP, I need you to hear about exit velocity!”  So, Nick Castellanos is regularly talked about when exit velocity and launch angles are brought up.  His average exit velocity is 90 MPH.  The top is Aaron Judge at 95 MPH, and Castellanos looks to be about 40th on the list (it wasn’t numbered, and I’m too lazy to count).  The top 40 is filled with hitters who are excelling at ghosting faster than others, but is also littered with disappointing names:  Machado, Gallo, Sandoval and Miggy, to name a few, and there is at least half you don’t want.  I could make a case that Adam Lind is as enticing as Castellanos using just exit velocity, which I guess is my point.  It’s a fun new metric (not that new, not that fun), but, in my estimation, it’s like a piece of evidence found at a crime.  It’s got the victim and suspect’s DNA on it, but if it doesn’t fit you can choose to ignore it.  Granted, that doesn’t rhyme quite as well.  Castellanos is 2nd in the majors for Hard Contact%.  Right in front of Miggy.  Again, you can read into that anything you want.  I still believe the Castellanos breakout is coming one of these years (he’s still only 25), but if you watch him hit, he has a line drive stroke, not a home run one.  The launch angle data is even less compelling for Castellanos because he drives balls the opposite way.  You can mollywhop, but if you’re going the other way, it’s not going to do as much damage unless you are Giancarlo or Judge, i.e, a giant living amongst Lilliputians.  The Greek God of Exit Velocity pulls line drives and hits fly balls the other way.  It might be the leg kick, it might be his natural swing tendencies, but it’s obvious if you look at his spray charts.  With all that said (here’s where Grey throws everything out), there’s no one hotter right now and it’s silly he’s only owned in 40% of leagues.  Okay, enough of Grey’s impersonation of Fangraphs… Anyway, here’s some more players to Buy or Sell this week in fantasy baseball:

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This is the best time of the year, next to when Shark Week is on TV.  All the movement in real baseball sends a ripple throughout the fantasy universe and in most position player cases, the player is owned to the moon or already a contributor.  Not so much in the realm of baseball’s forgotten warriors: the setup men.  As teams scramble for bullpen help, it creates an everlasting (not really forever) waterfall effect that resonates to the new and old team.  Take for example the Yankees/White Sox trade it has created job questions for five separate relievers: Betances, Robertson, Kahnle, Clippard and Swarzak.  Now with all the hype surrounding trade rumors, it is best to identify the team who gets the bullpen help first, than the trading team second.  Because the trading team usually is where the goodies are at.  Anthony Swarzak looks to be the biggest beneficiary in the setup options, and yes, Clippard will be closing, but Swarzak will be there when Clippard gets dealt again whether it’s before or after the non-waiver trade deadline.  So to summarize here, be speculative but not crazy.  Pay attention to the reliever deals in place and realize that some pitchers get moved down a few pegs, but on the reflexive, some move up. Have at some juicy reliever tidbits, Cheers!.

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Fredo, you’re my older brother and I love you, but don’t ever pick up Cameron Maybin again over Tommy Pham. If you do, Maybin will find himself on the disabled list and you’ll take a one way row boat ride out on the lake. If you think I’m kidding watch the movie. Tommy is the future of this phamily. In the past thirty days he has been a top ten batter in points leagues, scoring 96 points. Here are the seven hitters that are ahead of him. Jose Ramirez (98), Carlos Correa (98), Mookie Betts (102), Jose Altuve (102), Anthony Rendon (102), Bryce Harper (105) and George Springer (113). That’s quite the company he’s keeping. Looks like the heads of the five families and two of their captains if you ask me. Pham has score more points than every other hitter not mentioned in that sentence. That includes Joey Votto (93).

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Chris Sale, P: $11,800 & Max Scherzer, P: $11,600 – I’m not going to even waste your time telling you how good they are. Play them.

Wait a second…I’m sure all you faithful readers out there are saying “But this is a FanDuel article, we only get one pitcher!”. You’re right. So, Sale or Scherzer? This comes down to matchups and ballparks. Scherzer is facing a very good Arizona lineup, in Arizona – and unless it’s confirmed that the humidor has begun being used, Chase Field is a top-3 non-Coors offensive ballpark. On the other hand, Chris Sale is facing the pathetic Angels offense, which is approaching 2007 Cleveland Cavaliers territory for lopsidedness. For those who don’t remember, that’s the Cavs team that made the finals with Larry Hughes, Drew Gooden, Sasha Pavlovic, Zydrunas Ilgauskas and a small forward that remains comically underappreciated and underrated throughout his entire career. The problem is, baseball isn’t basketball. One amazing hitter can’t carry an otherwise inept lineup. The 2002 San Francisco Giants demonstrated that absurdly lopsided offenses only work if you have the single greatest offensive player of all time and a second elite-level hitter (and have at least one or two other guys that aren’t complete embarrassments – that year it was Benito Santiago and David Bell). Trout’s trying his best to be Barry Bonds, and Andrelton Simmons, shockingly, isn’t a complete embarrassment, and neither is Luis Valbuena. But the lack of Jeff Kent means this offense isn’t going to give anyone trouble. Additionally, Angel Stadium is an offense-killer, although it does get credit for not selling its naming rights (although the Cubs played in Cubs Park, but then changed the name for the 1927 season to a gum company, which is now considered a non corporate name, so the lesson is, just last a long time). So while I couldn’t fault anyone for deciding that Scherzer’s their guy tonight, when you consider that Sale is facing a vastly inferior lineup and pitching in a far more pitcher-friendly ballpark, the choice (for cash) seems fairly straightforward. And yes, astute readers of mine should note that Scherzer’s GPP-value is through the roof as my hunch is that Sale’s ownership is far higher, and it’s entirely possible Scherzer outscores Sale as both are quite dominant and it may just come down to who gets 11 strikeouts as opposed to 8.

On to the picks as soon as Guaranteed Rate Field becomes a fun, cozy name…

New to FanDuel? Scared of feeling like a small fish in a big pond? Well be sure to read our content and subscribe to the DFSBot for your daily baseball plays.  Just remember to sign up through us before jumping into the fray. It’s how we know you care!

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Since I haven’t touted my wares in a minute, I wrote a Jake Lamb sleeper post last December.  Going back to read that now, and, I don’t often laugh at my own stuff, but the opening paragraph is funny.  Not unintentionally either, like I called Aaron Judge a preseason bust (I actually liked Judge a lot in the preseason, and own him; something I also don’t tout often — the hype’s strong enough, isn’t it?).   Then, into the 2nd paragraph, I drop more gems, but they’re useful vs. haha.  One gem that particularly stands out to me as I reread it, Jake Lamb hates the summer.  He might also dislike girls that wear Abercrombie & Fitch.  Before yesterday’s 2-for-5, 6 RBIs, two-homer game, Lamb had a .150 average in July with no homers.  Last year, as I point out in that post, he was just as bad — 9 HRs, .197 in the 2nd half.  Last year, there was a wrist problem — That’s what she said!  What? — so maybe his splits aren’t as obvious as a banana gymnast.  Here’s hoping he makes last year an outlier and not the beginning of male pattern badness.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

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Way back in the wild west days of the international market, teams like the Dodgers, Yankees, and Red Sox approached the July 2nd signing period the same way Glenn Quagmire approached a night at the strip club. Cash in hand ready to make it rain on the first young talent that caught their eye. It was in one of these talent-laden spending sprees that a strapping young Dominican power hitter by the name of Starling Heredia first surfaced. In one of the more gluttonous international splurge’s since your creepy Uncle took that “trip” to Bangkok, the Dodgers dropped $45.38 million in that period on players like Yadier Alvarez, Yusinel Diaz, Omar Estevez, Ronny Brito, Oneal Cruz, and of course Heredia. The Dominican outfielder was ranked 9th in the class by Jesse Sanchez of MLB.com, two spots behind Vladimir Guerrero Jr., and ahead of such currently buzzy names as Fernando Tatis Jr., Juan Soto, Leody Taveras, and Aramis Ademan. He was described in the scouting reports at that time as a “the best corner outfield prospect in the class by some scouts, in part because of his raw power and projectable body.” Tools grades rated his raw power at a 60, and his hit tool at 55, pretty aggressive grades for teenage hitter. Don’t be too frightened, but at that time he listed Yasiel Puig as his role model. Then again Puig was good then. So what’s to Heredia? Is this just another rookie season flash or are we looking at a potential star in the making from the notorious Dodger pipeline.

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Almost 10 years before The Fast and the Furious, many of my friends were into street racing. They’d form crews and fix up their cars to race at Battle of the Imports or on the street for cash or pink slips. I remember one crew was called the Decepticons and had the logo plastered all over their cars. Some looked so tight. I’ll never forget one guy, though. He’d spend a ton of money on the exterior: rims, lights, body kit. He even decked out the interior with a roll cage, racing seats, pedals, instrument gauges, etc. His ride looked so, so nice. The only problem was that he spent no money on the engine. ALL SHOW NO GO. Which segues perfectly to Carlos Gonzalez (70% owned – decrease of 6.1%). CarGo sucks. One of Grey’s favorite movie lines is: See that S Car Go from Trading Places. One of my all-time favorite movies by the way. Anyways, this CarGo ain’t going anywhere. He hit 40 home runs two years ago. Last year, he hit 25 home runs. This year? He’s hit six. SIX! The ISO is at .116. The triple-slash line is .218/.296/.335. wRC+ is 47. His ground ball rate is at a career-high, hard contact rate is at a career-low, and he’s going oppo at a career-low rate. Steamer has rest of season projections at .277 average, 12 home runs, 33 runs scored, 38 RBI, and one stolen base. I’m just not buying it. He’s 31 years old. Side rant. Why didn’t the Rockies trade him last year? Anyways, other than the fact that he sucks, is he even going to play everyday? Charlie Blackmon is entrenched in centerfield. You guys know my love for Gerardo Parra. I guess he platoons with Ian Desmond. But….what happens when David Dahl returns? TRASH.

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This week, Dr. Easy and I (he’s the Rudy, with the stats and the puns; I’m the Grey, with the high-pitched giggle and the puns) continue our Adventures with the Razzball Season-to-Date Player Rater (STD PR), looking for players who are rated higher than you may think they are — or lower than you think they would be — in an attempt to help you with waiver wire pick-ups, trade targets and DFS plays. We’ll look at a couple of position players but focus mostly on non-closing, non-handcuff relief pitchers, to try to get an idea of where their value lies for a roto team.

Please, blog, may I have some more?
 
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