Fantasy Baseball Advice

On the heels of the top 20 closers for 2012 fantasy baseball — or heals if you’re talking strictly about Huston Street and Andrew Bailey — comes every closer for 2012 fantasy baseball.  This is the post you’ve all been waiting for since earlier this morning!  Sorry to put you through that hour and a half of anguish/anticipation or anguishipation.  You were a melancholy soul.  But now you’re happy — yay.  It’s still Monday funday!  There were quite a few moves this offseason with closers relocating to greener pastures, or in some case, just different pastures.  Maybe that’s best expressed through the cliché mash-up — the grass isn’t always greener pastures.  Andrew Bailey moved, Mark Melancon moved, Ryan Madson moved, Huston Street moved, Heath Bell moved, Rafael Betancourt moved into the closer role, Sergio Santos moved and Joe Nathan moved.  A regular ol’ closerousel that we haven’t see the likes of since Tony La Russa retired (technically, that’s correct; though not exactly that long ago).  Anyway, here’s all the closers for 2012 fantasy baseball:

$12 Salads

You know that restaurant your girlfriend/wife/what-have-you likes to go to that charges, like, $12 for a salad? Every time you go there, you have a thoroughly solid meal. No complaints, except you just paid $12 for a salad when you could’ve went to McDonald’s and stuffed you and your woman for ten schmools and had $2 in quarters left over to make the hotel bed vibrate. These closers are $12 salads.

1. Craig Kimbrel (Jonny Venters)
2. John Axford (Francisco Rodriguez)
3. Drew Storen (Tyler Clippard, Brad Lidge)
4. Mariano Rivera (David Robertson, Rafael Soriano)
5. Jonathon Papelbon (Antonio Bastardo)

Donkeycorns

Imagine you’re following a donkey, who’s wearing a wool cap, through a desert for 1700 miles. Why are you following a donkey? Because he promises you something wonderful and you just need to trust him. Does the donkey talk? Yes. Yes, he does talk. So when you and the donkey in the wool cap arrive at his destination, he removes his the wool cap to reveal a horn. The donkey is a unicorn and his gift to you for your trust is saves. These closers are Donkeycorns.

6. Jose Valverde (Joaquin Benoit, Octavio Dotel)
7. Brian Wilson (Sergio Romo, Santiago Casilla)
8. J.J. Putz (David Hernandez, Takashi Saito)
9. Heath Bell (Juan Leo Carlos Nunez Oviedo, Mike Dunn)
10. Carlos Marmol (Kerry Wood, Jeff Samardzija)
11. Joakim Soria (Jonathon Broxton, Greg Holland)
12. Joel Hanrahan (Evan Meek)
13. Ryan Madson (Sean Marshall, Nick Masset)
14. Kenley Jansen (Javy Guerra, Todd Coffey)
15. Jason Motte (Eduardo Sanchez)
16. Huston Street (Luke Gregerson)
17. Andrew Bailey (Mark Melancon, Bobby Jenks)
18. Sergio Santos (Francisco Cordero)
19. Jordan Walden (Scott Downs, LaTroy Hawkins)
20. Kyle Farnsworth (Joel Peralta, Jake McGee)

Brain Freeze

I’m going on a picnic and I’m bringing apples, bananas and Chris Perez– Wait, he just gave up 12 earned runs and hit Asdrubal in the head with a pickoff throw. Brain freeze! Make it stop! Use the following closers at your own risk.

21. Frank Francisco (Jon Rauch, Ramon Ramirez)
22. Rafael Betancourt (Rex Brothers)
23. Matt Thornton (Jesse Crain, Addison Reed)
24. Joe Nathan (Mike Adams, Alexi Ogando)
25. Brandon League (Shawn Kelley, Hong-Chih Kuo)
26. Chris Perez (Vinnie Pestano, Tony Sipp)
27. Jim Johnson (Kevin Gregg, Matt Lindstrom)
28. Matt Capps (Joel Zumaya, Glen Perkins)
29. Brian Fuentes (Grant Balfour, Joey Devine)
30. Juan Abreu (Wilton Lopez, David Carpenter, Fernando Rodriguez, The Ghost of Ed Wade’s Toupee)

The 2012 fantasy baseball rankings have reached the next to next to next to last stop with the top 20 closers for 2012 fantasy baseball.  These top 20 closers are different than all of the other rankings.  The closers on the top of this list you should not draft and there are closers that aren’t on this list that you should be targeting.  Shortly, there will be a list of every team’s closer and setup man.  I’m thinking this afternoon.  Monday funday!  The projections are also a bit wonky since you can’t predict saves.  It’s a fool’s errand.  If fool’s errand means what I think it does.  Some well-known projectionists (not the pimply kid unspooling Albert Nobbs) don’t even attempt to predict saves.  Saves come down to opportunity.  This is yet another reason why you shouldn’t draft the top guys.  Nevertheless, my projections are listed along with where I see tiers starting and stopping.  Anyway, here’s the top 20 closers for 2012 fantasy baseball:

1. Craig Kimbrel – This is the first tier.  This tier goes from here until Storen.  I call this tier, “Young, dumb and full of speed gun.”  To illustrate further why you shouldn’t draft a top guy, the top three closers when rankings came out last year were Carlos Marmol, Neftali and Soria.  I wasn’t bonkers with a side of delusional when I put those three at the top.  It just shows you the fickliosity (Made Up Word of the Day!) of the closers.  The good news is the guys I told you to target later are now on the top of the rankings.  Sure, I’d love to get Kimbrel.  Like I’m Samuel Gerard.  Just don’t think it’s happening.  2012 Projections:  5-2/2.20/1.08/110, 40 saves

2. John Axford – I love the fact that he accepted K-Rod coming to the Brewers, took a dump in his locker* and kept on saving games.  (*Unsubstantiated claim that K-Rod assumed was his father-in-law.  K-Rod and his father-in-law are now thick as thieves and have decided to settle all arguments with a round of laser tag.)  2012 Projections:  5-1/2.40/1.16/90, 38 saves

3. Drew Storen – You want a donkeycorn?!  You can’t handle a donkeycorn!  Cause they’re wild, bucking animals.  You should get a lamb.  They’re peaceful.  2012 Projections:  4-3/2.50/1.04/75, 38 saves

4. Mariano Rivera – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Putz.  I call this tier, “Not young, not dumb, but will get the job done.”  These guys are not flashy names anymore.  Well, maybe Mo a little, but for the most part there’s no shine on these guys.  Whatever, you just want saves.  Stop being so greedy.  2012 Projections:  2-3/2.40/0.95/55, 40 saves

5. Jonathon Papelbon – Whatever junk Papelbon was smoking in 2010 when his ERA was 3.90, he stopped smoking it in 2011 when his K-rate was 12+ and his ERA was 2.94.  Or maybe he wasn’t smoking in 2010 and was smoking in 2011.  Or maybe he wasn’t smoking either year, but standing near Terry Francona when he was smoking.  Either way, Papelbon now faces the NL and not the Yankees for 18 games a year, 17 of which are televised.  2012 Projections:  4-3/2.65/1.00/80, 37 saves

6. Jose Valverde – Everyone is picking the Tigers for the World Series, so naturally Valverde is going to be five kinds of wonderful with a side of “This is better than sex!”  Then again, the Cards and Rangers’ closers weren’t so good last year, so, yeah, it makes little difference.  Not to say I don’t like Valverde, just putting shizz into perspective.  2012 Projections:  3-3/3.00/1.22/65, 35 saves

7. Brian Wilson – He had a bit of a junky season last year.  Yet, he still had 36 saves and a 3.11 ERA.  You could’ve done worse *cough* Soria *cough* 2012 Projections:  5-3/2.90/1.32/70, 35 saves

8. J.J. Putz – I struggled with whether to put Putz (almost stutterer!) in the next tier of guys that I’m wary of or if I should say he’ll be fine in this tier.  After battling with myself over this Putz for about fifteen minutes, I worried I might go blind and just ranked him here.  He is a bit of a one man MASH unit, which makes sense since his full name is Jamie Jfarr Putz.  2012 Projections:  4-3/2.75/1.00/60, 32 saves

9. Heath Bell -  This is a new tier.  This tier goes to Hanrahan.  I call this tier, “High ranked closers that I’m a bit wary of.  Not enough to kick out of bed, but enough to wonder why I’m in bed with them.”  The factory underneath Petco that produces middle men that become all-world closers released a report after Bell signed with Miami.  “Miami has a team?  Oh, Florida!  We’re sorry to see Heath Bell leave our organization.  He was a valued member of our bullpen.  But, really, anyone can close games in Petco.  Have you seen our fences?  Trick question.  You haven’t seen the fences because they’re three miles from home plate.  Good luck in Miami!”  2012 Projections:  4-3/3.25/1.18/50, 37 saves

10. Carlos Marmol – I usually tell you to ignore potential trades and that other foolishness, but Epstein is dead set on shaking up the Cubs and putting his stamp on the club, so I could see Marmol setting things up for a playoff contender by mid-summer.  I know if I was headed to the playoffs I’d love to have Marmol in the 8th inning.  2012 Projections:  5-3/3.50/1.35/100, 25 saves

11. Joakim Soria -  Could totally bounce back, but why am I risking it if he doesn’t?  There’s no other closers?  Of course there is.  If I can avoid risk with a fairly high ranked closer, I am.  2012 Projections:  3-2/3.35/1.25/65, 35 saves

12. Joel Hanrahan – Hanrahananananan is a bit of wild card.  I think he can save 40 games again with a 9 K/9 and a sub-2 ERA or he can save 25 games and a high-3 ERA.  Plus, drafting him is a bit like OD’ing on tryptophananananananan.  Snooooooooze.  (BTW, after this blurb, my spellchecker quit on me.  Just got up and walked out of the room.)  2012 Projections:  2-4/3.35/1.20/65, 34 saves

13. Ryan Madson – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Street.  I call this tier, “I’ll probably own these guys on multiple teams; this tier name doesn’t rhyme and isn’t pithy.” You want guys that can become the top four for (stutterer!) next year.  Here’s your tier, snitches!  Assuming Madson doesn’t stumble for any extended period of time, he’ll be more valuable than this ranking.  The only big issue is Dusty waking up with his toothpick on the wrong side of his mouth and deciding Madson’s no longer his closer.  2012 Projections:  5-2/3.00/1.22/60, 32 saves

14. Kenley Jansen – I have a bit of a soft spot for high upside mid-tier closers.  Or is that a hard spot?  It’s why I ended up with Kimbrel and Axford on multiple teams last year and will be eying Jansen this year.  As of right now, he’s not officially the closer, but I think it happens.  If you want him, you’re gonna have to draft him around here.  I say do it.  2012 Projections:  1-3/2.25/1.00/85, 25 saves

15. Jason Motte – I’m hoping with La Russa’s Feathered Hair moving on to grayer pastures that the Cards bullpen will be a lot more stable.  If I had Madson, Jansen and Motte on every team as my only closers, I’d be so happy I’d cancel all future shrink appointments, except the ones on Tuesday because I stepped on a sidewalk crack last week.  2012 Projections:  3-4/2.50/1.10/65, 27 saves

16. Huston Street – If you hold what I said about Heath Bell in the mirror, that’s what I have to say about Street and why I like him this year.  Of course, he can’t stay healthy without the help of magical potion or whatever it was that Ryan Braun took.  2012 Projections:  2-4/3.00/1.10/50, 30 saves

17. Andrew Bailey – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Thornton.  I call this tier, “Closers that I’m probably going to miss out on, but SAGNOF tells us saves are saves are saves so I could draft one of these guys.”  A few things separate Huston Street from Andrew Bailey.  1.) Tougher home park.  2.) Tougher league. 3.) There’s no 3.  4.) Bailey’s going much higher in drafts than Street.  2012 Projections:  3-1/3.30/1.10/50, 34 saves

18. Sergio Santos – If someone said they were a time traveler and they just returned from 2013 and Santos is now the top closer, I wouldn’t be surprised though I would wonder why they used their time traveling ability for something so trivial.  My problem with Santos is his walks and he has a capable closer behind him.  A few screw ups and he’s out.  I did flip-flop on Santos since the last time I wrote about him.  A girl and Grey have a right to change their mind.  I do know what I was thinking with that post.  Ks, Ks, Ks… And more Ks.  Now, I’m getting cold feet.  Stupid poor circulation!  2012 Projections:  3-5/3.70/1.24/80, 25 saves

19. Rafael Betancourt – Maybe once and for all he can shake the Cuddle Boy label.  Maybe I don’t want to risk it on my team to find out.  Fairly wellesley, Dame Betancourt!  2012 Projections:  4-2/3.50/1.10/65, 25 saves

20. Matt Thornton – He’s 35 years old and he has 20 career saves.  By season end, Hawk says about Thornton, “He gone!” and the White Sox try out Addison Reed or Jesse Crain.  2012 Projections:  5-4/3.75/1.22/65, 20 saves

After the top 20 closers, there’s a lot of names you should draft and I’ll go over all of them.  Here’s three that stand out:

Chris Perez – Coming off a season with a 5.88 K/9 and a 3.92 BB/9.  That’s the new blech.  Again, I would take any closer that had a job, but don’t let Perez’s 36 saves last year cause you to overpay.  2012 Projections:  2-5/4.00/1.28/45, 25 saves

Joe Nathan – When he went to the Rangers, I wrote my Joe Nathan fantasy.  If you hold it up to a mirror, it’s very difficult to read.  2012 Projections:  3-4/3.75/1.18/45, 30 saves

Juan Abreu -  Who?  Did I mean to type Joan Abreu, Bobby’s loving Momsie?  I think I might’ve.  And I think Bobby’s Momsie is the favorite to get saves in Houston.  Whatever!  SAGNOF!  If someone’s getting saves, draft them!  2012 Projections:  1-4/2.70/1.28/70, 20 saves

We at Razzball realize that exporting our views across the country has damaging consequences on the blogosphere. To help make amends, we are reaching out to leading team blogs and featuring their locally blogged answers to pressing 2012 fantasy baseball questions regarding their team. We feel this approach will be fresher, more sustainable, and require less energy consumption (for us anyway). The 2012 Rays Fantasy Baseball Preview comes courtesy of Jason Collette from DRaysBay.

1) I have Evan Longoria as my preseason 2012 MVP pick.  This is the year, friend.  According to me.  Live with me for a second (not literally) and give me your most optimistic line for Longoria.

Ignore the easy route and looking at his insanely low BABIP last year and look at the narrative. He strained his oblique in Game 2 of the season and missed 26 games because of it. He came back only to develop a nerve issue in his big toe on his right foot that did not allow him to properly get into baseballs like good hitters want to do. He didn’t get to 100% until somewhere around mid-June, right about the same time Matt Joyce cooled off from his rocket-fueled streak in May. Now, let’s get back to that BABIP. His plate appearance and batted ball results were nearly identical to what they were in 2010: K%, BB%, pitches per plate appearance, G/L/F splits, swing rates, etc. Yet, his BABIP fell 97 points and was only over .225 in three of the five months in which he played last season. What quietly flew under the radar during his monster close to the season was that he walked more than he struck out from August 1st throughout the rest of the season and did so without sacrificing any power as he had 26 extra base hits in just 244 plate appearances. .285 with 220 R+RBI, 40 HR, & 10 SB is not crazy to predict.

2)  Desmond Jennings and I had a baby.  It was under-reported that’s why you didn’t hear it.  Okay, so I basically love all Rays (except Hellickson, we’ll get to him).  You’re a fantasy guy yourself, so you know how much the fantasy community loves Desmond Jennings.  Will we be disappointed or will he be a 2nd round pick in 2013?

I guess he took that maternity leave for most of September then. As awesome as he was in August, major league pitchers quickly found the holes in his swing in September and he proved time and time again he couldn’t lay off that high fastball and then got him making bad contact while protecting the plate after that. Dive into small sample size hell with me for a second and revisit the 17 games Jennings had after his 2 home run performance in Toronto. He hit .174/.278/.246 after that  with just two extra base hits as pitchers gave him a steady diet of those high fastballs until he finally started laying off them toward the end of the season. Durability is always a concern with him as he has only had one blemish-free professional season. I’ve seen him go in the top 50 in some drafts but that’s a risky move – not because of the talent but because of the durability issues.

3) Jeremy Hellickson’s 2011 was a mess outside of ERA.  This year his ERA catches up to his other peripherals.  True, false or I shall explain.

False. The “norm” is different in Tampa Bay. Joe Maddon employs more defensive shifts than any other manager in baseball and it is no mistake that the Rays pitching staff has had the lowest team BABIP each of the past four seasons. Sure, Longoria and Zobrist are elite defenders, but Jason Bartlett was no gem during his run here and Carlos Pena and Casey Kotchman aren’t terribly rangy side to side. Positioning is everything so a .223 BABIP against a team BABIP of .280 looks a bit better. Shields’ disastrous 2010 season is the only Rays’ starting pitcher to have a BABIP over .285 during that run as well. Hellickson is flyball heavy, but 25% of his flyballs in play never leave the infield as he induces a lot of bad contact. Also understand that his K/9 was problematic because he had John Jaso “catching” him often. Jaso is to catching what Rex Grossman is to quarterbacking. Hellickson had the lowest called strike three rate in baseball last season and thanks to the work of now Houston Astros front office guru Mike Fast, we know that Jose Molina is the best framing catcher in baseball. It is pretty easy to envision a caddy situation here as Hellickson is also susceptible to basestealers in that he isn’t quick to home plate. Molina’s framing and throwing were an early Christmas present for the young kid out of Iowa.

4) How many innings do we see from Matt Moore this year?  Does he break camp with the team?  I’ve already dropped my Matt Moore fantasy.  Now yours please.

The Rays like to keep increases from season to season at 20%, but it’s with pitch counts, not innings pitched. As long as Moore isn’t turning in Scott Kazmir 2009 specials early in the season, I see no reason why he would be under any kind of restriction in September unless the team is not contending. Then again, after what happened in 2011, the Rays would probably need to be 14 games out for the front office to throw in the white flag. We are 20 days from pitchers and catchers reporting and the Rays still have six starting pitchers. Seven when you factor in the strong likelihood of Alex Cobb going to extended spring training and eight if you consider Alex Torres could pitch in the back end of most rotations in baseball right now. Putting Davis and/or Niemann in the bullpen does nothing to help their trade value, and the bullpen is already a bit crowded with guaranteed spots for Farnsworth, Peralta, Rodney, Howell, and likely McGee. Moore is already under contract so the typical model of the team sending him down past the Super Two deadline is out of the way and if the team did send him down, the fans (insert joke here) would boo louder than they boo a B.J. Upton strikeout looking. The run support should be there this year, much like Hellickson enjoyed last season so if he is up for the full season as a starter, 12+ wins, 180+ K’s is expected, not hoped for.

5) Do Tampa Bay Ray fans live in fear of the day that Andrew Friedman finds out that Jews aren’t supposed to live in Tampa until they collect Social Security?

There’s a rumor that Friedman has part ownership in the team which is why he has turned down lucrative jobs elsewhere. That tells us he is hoping to turn a profit when the team is eventually relocated to a more appreciative market so he can cash in his chips just in time to re-enter a recovering Wall Street market and make more millions to buy his own Island. As long as Gerry Hunsicker is still in the organization, the thought of Friedman leaving is easier to digest. Losing Dan Feinstein to Oakland was a tough talent bleed for the front office but adding former fantasy guru and now scout extraordinaire Jason Grey to the front office was a nice trade-off. Besides, with Jason Grey out of the way, maybe I can finally finish in the top 3 in AL Tout Wars.

Have you heard I like Anibal Sanchez this year?  No?  What rock have you been living under?  Does your rock have an address?  Do you get mail addressed to “Rock?”  If someone throws a rock onto your street, does it confuse the postman?  Do you ever get mail that’s meant for The Rock that accidentally finds its way to your rock?  I have rock questions.  I haven’t been this excited about a man with a woman’s name since Jody Gerut hit 3 homers in September of 2009.  Anibal doesn’t have as many innings on his arm as most 6-year vets not because he’s a sissy with a sissy name, but because he’s had countless injuries and a labrum tear, which does sound like an injury that would happen to a girl.  He’s shown he can locate his pitches with authority, cutting his walk rate and bumping up his first pitch strike percentage to a new career high.  Not only is he commanding his pitches, but he’s also throwing them faster.  Most instances his past injuries would scare me away, but he’s actually gained speed on his fastball each year since 2007 with this past year setting a new career high for his fastball and slider velocity.  Maybe all those years of being toughened up from beatings as a boy with a girl’s name has finally paid off.  So what can we expect of Anibal Sanchez for 2012 fantasy baseball and what makes him a sleeper?

The sleeper part is easy.  He’s being drafted after Hellickson, Cueto, Carpenter and near Tim Hudson.  To break down those four pitchers further.  That’s a Don’t Like, Don’t Like, Don’t Like and Injured for the 1st Month, respectively.  So you can get Anibal at a decent price.  He’s also coming off a year where he had a 9+ K/9.  There’s no other pitchers being drafted as late as him with a 9+ K/9 that don’t come with some serious baggage.  Like a four walks per nine innings-sized bag, or play for a team that might only win 70 games-sized bag.  The Marlins are primed to challenge for the pennant and their ace is Anibal Sanchez.  Not Josh Johnson as is being reported by everyone but me.  Last year, Sanchez had a 3.67 ERA, but a 3.25 xFIP due to a bit of bad luck.  Even if he repeats his shizzy luck and only comes away with 3.50 ERA and 200 Ks, he’s way more valuable than the other pitchers I mentioned at the beginning of this paragraph.  In the top 40 starters for 2012 fantasy baseball, I put Anibal’s projections at 15-8/3.50/1.24/190.  If there’s one pitcher I want on every team that could sneak into the Cy Young conversation this year, it’s Anibal Sanchez.  Yeah, I’m shooting up some serious Anibalic steroids.

This is almost the end of the 2012 fantasy baseball rankings.  With these top 80 starters for 2012 fantasy baseball, there’s a few names that I’m really gunning for on my teams… My deeper teams.  On last year’s top 80, there were a few guys that shot up the rankings (Hellickson, Anibal, Garza and Zimmermann), so I imagine a lot of you won’t need most of the names on this list, but there will be some.  Now humor me.  There’s tiers and projections mentioned for everyone.  Anyway, here’s the top 80 starters for 2012 fantasy baseball:

61. Brandon McCarthy – This tier started in the top 60 starters for 2012 fantasy baseball.  This tier ends at Peavy.  I called this tier, “Holy crap, there were a lot of starters I didn’t like in the top 60 starters post.  Let’s see some names I like.  Please.”  The first two guys in this tier could’ve been called, “Young pitchers who don’t strike out many that you should start at home.”  McCarthy’s ERA at home was 2.65 and 1.11 WHIP.  As said two sentences ago– Two Sentences Ago, “Why don’t you come up with your own points?”  McCarthy doesn’t strike out a whole lot of guys.  2012 Projections:  8-11/3.50/1.17/140

62. Tim Stauffer – Last year Stauffer had a home ERA of 2.57 and a 1.13 WHIP.  I’ll give this to you nice and simple like Minnie Pearl would’ve wanted it.  Stauffer is a Hodgepadre.  Start him at home and sit him on the road.  He did have 94 1/3 IP innings at home last year, so you’re talking about a top tier reliever’s ratio stats if you hold firm when to start him.  2012 Projections:  8-10/3.80/1.24/135

63. Ted Lilly – I could’ve made a sub-tier within this tier calling these last three guys, “Pitchers that I refuse to learn from no matter how many times they burn me.”  I really believe last year we saw the beginning of the end of Lilly.  Fading Lilly, if you like pithy comments that sound like sushi restaurants.  There’s some arguments to be made that that (stutterer!) is incorrect.  He did come on in the 2nd half (2.94 ERA, 8+ K/9).  If you believe his 1st half (4.79 ERA) was just an aberration on the that-ain’t-the-real-thing tip, then I could see grabbing Lilly late.  For his price, it’s probably worth it.  2012 Projections:  11-8/3.85/1.18/160

64. Scott Baker – For those of you that can’t wait to read the end of this post just to comment that Lilly and Baker’s projections look better than Stauffer and McCarthy so why do I have them below?  Don’t.  Lilly is on the downswing of his career and Baker can’t stay healthy.  Take an upside flyer with Stauffer or McCarthy before these guys.  Those of you who didn’t read this blurb and commented about the order of the rankings, you’re not reading this either.  Too bad, I would’ve had you say hello to your mother for me.  Hey now!  2012 Projections:  11-7/3.65/1.19/160

65. Jake Peavy – If he can stay healthy, he could be valuable.  Unfortunately, my man can’t stay healthy.  Grey, you have no faith in medicine, The White Stripes.  If I were the type to say completely unsubstantiated claims with no factual evidence, I’d say Peavy can’t stay healthy because he used to do steroids.  I would never say that though.  I’m way above that!  Hopefully, there’s no my-momma-didn’t-name-me-that scandal with the reveal that he’s really Jack Peavy and actually 78 years old, but that would jive with all of his health problems.  For those worried about the integrity of our great game, I do think the name scandals will soon end with all players selling their naming rights to companies.  Now pitching for the New York Yankees… Saran Wrap!  2012 Projections:  10-8/3.75/1.21/130

66. Ryan Vogelsong – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Jackson.  I call this tier, “You may get a number three fantasy starter or you may get someone similar to Nadir Bupkus.”  Last year didn’t really make sense.  Not in general, unless you’re trying to figure why you like baseball yet weren’t that crazy about Moneyball.  I think you had to not like baseball to love Moneyball.  But I was referring to last year not making sense for Vogelsong.  He’s like 40 years old (34) and he just put up his best season, even though his peripherals (pitch speed, where the pitches were, etc.) didn’t get better from the last time he was in the States.  Maybe he can repeat it.  More likely, you’re going to get a good spot starter when he faces the Padres, Dodgers and some other weaker offenses.  2012 Projections:  10-9/3.75/1.26/140

67. Jonathon Niese – Last year, his ERA was 4.40 and now the Mets are moving in the fences and constructing a giant Madoff head to blow hot air out to right field.  So why is Niese in a positive tier?  Thanks, clunky expository question!  He had a K-rate of 7.89 last year and showed in the minors that is about right and could be even a little higher.  Also, he had a slightly off BABIP and poor LOB%, so he wasn’t really a near-four and half ERA pitcher, but probably three-quarters of a run better.  All these good vibes about Niese make me want to do my Grind workout.  2012 Projections:  9-10/3.75/1.32/160

68. Bud Norris – You can’t predict wins.  You shouldn’t even try.  It is totally pointless.  But since I had a “Totally Pointless” college degree this is right up my alley.  You are not going to get wins with Norris.  You will get some walks and nice Ks.  I kinda want Norris on every team.  Might even draft him on my AL-Only keeper team for when the Astros realign.  2012 Projections:  7-9/3.80/1.32/190

69. Mike Leake – His ground ball percentage was solid, walks were dropped by over one per game and his strikeouts increased (though not to a rate that is drool-inducing).  If Leake can avoid dribblers through the vas deferns, he should have some success.  2012 Projections:  13-8/3.75/1.22/135

70. Ryan Dempster – I’m tentatively liking Dempster this year.  His 4.80 ERA last year was H to the ideous, but he did have a 3.70 xFIP and a 8.50 K/9.  I’ve seen worse stats.  Some of the guys above him, for instance, they have worse stats.  I don’t know the intricacies of his contract and I don’t think you should draft someone in March with the hope they’re traded, but wouldn’t shock me to see Dempster on a pennant contender before 2012 is through.  Maybe he’ll go to the Padres, if the Yankees change their name to the Padres.  2012 Projections:  12-8/3.90/1.33/190

71. Edwin Jackson – Signed yesterday with the Nats, naturally.  Looks like all the Nats needed to become a contender was to get rid of Bowden.  Great addition for the Nats’ rotation.  For fantasy, it’s a’ight.  Earlier in his career, he was better in the AL than the NL, but now that he’s matured I think it was an immaturity thing.  Funny how that works.  Best case scenario is a 3.50 ERA and kinda icky WHIP.  Worst case scenario is a 4 and a half ERA and icky WHIP.  Speaking of which, I was thinking about what’s the best best case scenario of recent times and I have to think it’s The Jersey Shore.  I can’t help watch the opening and think about how when they made that title sequence they all were probably glad to just be employed by a t-shirt shop, MTV almost axed the show before it started and none of them really had much chance for a future unless you count success by the number of acquired STDs.  Now they’re all millionaires and it’s laughable that they would work at a t-shirt shop.  Of course, the worst worst case scenario would have to be leaving the show a’la Angelina and not reaping any of its benefits.  What a stunod.  2012 Projections:  11-10/3.80/1.35/160

72. Hiroki Kuroda – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Collmenter.  I call this tier, “Solid, but unspectacular.”  See, I will draft solid with a chance for spectacular.  I’ll even take a chance on very risky with a chance for spectacular.  But “Solid, but unspectacular” gets drafted around the time I want to take flyers, so I don’t bother with this tier.  When you’re this late in a draft, it makes no sense to draft a guy like Kuroda, Danks, Buehrle, etc.  Like any investment, they’re the last one in and first one out.  It’s a shame that Kuroda was picked up by the Yankees.  When he was on the Dodgers, he was a solid back end of your fantasy rotation starter that no one ever reached for.  For whatever reason, everyone looked the other way even though his career ERA is under 3.50, WHIP’s under 1.20, walks are low and his K/9 last year was over 7.  Oh, well.  I wouldn’t draft him with your fantasy team in 2012.  AL East and The Stadium They Built Across The Street From The House Ruth Built is two negatives that don’t equal a positive.  2012 Projections:  12-9/3.90/1.24/150

73. John Danks – I’ll admit I’m probably too down on Danks.  He’s the very definition of solid, but unspectacular.  A big issue with solid but unspectacular that I didn’t mention above.  If for some reason you get less than solid, you get Danks’s 2011:  4.33 ERA, 135 Ks and 1.34 WHIP.  That’s not even solid.  At 27 years old, he should revert back to solid, but unspectacular.  2012 Projections:  9-10/3.75/1.28/150

74. Mark Buehrle – Gets wins, mid-3 ERA, lots of innings… What’s not to like?  Oh, yeah, he strikes out about as much as Mystery in a college bar on “Ladies drink for free” night.  2012 Projections:  14-10/3.70/1.28/100

75. Ivan Nova – With a 3.70 ERA, he won 16 games last year in 28 games started.  Basically, Blyleven would’ve been a first ballot Hall of Famer on the Yankees.  If you’re chasing wins, I could see going with Nova, but chasing wins is a losing proposition. (<–Turn of a phrase point!)  2012 Projections:  14-8/4.00/1.33/110

76. Gavin Floyd – I’ve tied Floyd to Danks in my rankings for as long as I can remember, which sounds like a nerdy version of the Goodfellas voiceover.  Floyd is a tad under Danks because of his age.  There’s a better chance of Danks exceeding his projections than Floyd, but they’re both solid, but… Well, you know.  2012 Projections:  9-11/4.00/1.26/155

77. R.A. Dickey – I don’t like Dickey, not that there’s anything right with that.  He’s totally blown away my projections the last two years, but I can’t trust a knuckleballer.  I don’t like when I’m relying on a pitcher that has no idea where the ball is going.  I’m sure he’s used to the hate.  Can’t be easy going through puberty with a name like Dickey and being a knuckleballer.  2012 Projections:  10-9/3.75/1.27/130

78. Josh Collmenter – You thought I didn’t like Dickey?  Try my dislike of Collmenter on for size.  Too snug?  That’s cause you have both of your arms in the same sleeve.  Collmenter had a 5+ K-rate and a 4.18 xFIP.  No Ks there is a than, but no thans.  2012 Projections:  8-10/4.25/1.24/110

79. Francisco Liriano – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until here.  I call this tier, “Screw you, Liriano.”  He got very lucky last year.  No, not with his FIP or xFIP or BABIP or men left on base or with runs scored for.  He got lucky I didn’t kill him.  2012 Projections:  11-11/4.30/1.35/155

80. Brett Cecil – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Volquez.  I call this tier, “You’ll probably drop most of these guys by mid-April and may not even have the nads to start them once on your team, but you may as well take a flyer.”  (The projections in this tier are optimistic.)  I saw one ‘pert didn’t rank Cecil in his top 100 starters.  I thought that was odd.  He’s only 26 years old.  Then I looked at mock draft results and he wasn’t anywhere.  I saw Joel Pineiro.  I saw Jason Hammel.  I even saw Javier Vazquez.  He retired.  We’re all that done with a 26-year-old pitcher who was being drafted last year in the top 200?  I don’t want to point any fingers, but you — yeah, you.  Don’t look behind you. — were excited about drafting Cecil last year.  Nothing in his stats say bounce back, but between him or Pineiro or a guy that retired, I’m going with Cecil.  2012 Projections:  12-9/4.00/1.30/145

After the top 80 starters, there’s a lot of names, but here’s some that stand out:

Homer Bailey - With a career ERA of 4.89, I’ve warded off Homer to use two of the better father names in the history of television.  Now, I find myself seeing a scenario where I could draft him very late.  His walk rate last year was more than one walk off his previous year.  His K-rate fell a bit, but it’s still over 7.  His xFIP was 3.77 and his team should win some games.  Bailey is long overdue for a breakout.  I’m saying sleeper and grab him late.  That’s my story and I’m sticking to it until he defecates all over my ERA.  2012 Projections:  12-9/3.70/1.28/130

Chris Sale – If I had to, and I probably do, write a sleeper post about Sale or Bard, it’s a no-brainer.  It’s Sale all the way.  Sale’s only real question mark is how many innings will the Pale Hose throw him.  (BTW, if I was writing newspaper headlines in 1919, I would’ve wrote “Paint the White Hose Black.” If there’s any time travelers reading this, take it, it’s yours.)  I think Sale sees about 125 innings.  2012 Projections:  8-8/3.50/1.24/130

Daniel Bard – When the Sawx first announced Bard would start, here’s what I said, “The Sawx are toying with the idea that Daniel Bard should be in the rotation rather than as the closer.  To incorrectly quote Gordon Gekko, “That’s a toy with fleas.”  As a starter in the minor leagues, his ERA was 7.08 and walked 78 hitters in 75 innings.  Granted, this was early on in his minor league career, but I don’t see the Sawx taking a pitcher that is actually succeeding as a reliever and stretching him out to fail.  Then again, their rotation isn’t exactly five deep.  Hopefully Daniel doesn’t stay *pinkie to mouth* Bard from the bullpen.  Or should I say bullpun.”  And that’s me quoting me!  I still think the Red Sox make a last minute move to keep Bard in the bullpen and acquire another starter.  2012 Projections:  9-7/3.70/1.22/160

Brad Peacock – I already went over my Brad Peacock fantasy.  It’s January Grey’s favorite post.   2012 Projections:  9-8/3.60/1.30/170

Edinson Volquez – If he gets 200 innings, he will strikeout 200 hitters.  Look at the rest of this post and try to find another guy K’ing 200.  So why isn’t he ranked higher?  Well, there’s this little problem with him walking people like it’s his job.  It’s not his job.  If that’s getting lost in the translation, someone should tell him that is not his job.  Yo camino no trabajar!  2012 Projections:  8-12/3.75/1.33/200

Ricky Nolasco – This is the last tier.  This tier is called, “I didn’t forget these guys.  I’m just not drafting them.”  Nolasco hasn’t had an ERA under 4.50 in 3 years, but if you’re playing in a league that counts K/BB rates or guys that underperform, then by all means go with Nolasco.  2012 Projections:  12-9/4.25/1.29/150

Wade Davis – He had strikeout numbers in the minors, and I think those return from wherever they went, but I’m not drafting him on the assumption they will.  Could be a nice during-season-pickup if he gets his shizz together.  2012 Projections:  10-10/4.15/1.35/115

Carlos Zambrano – Ozzie will either bond with Zambrano and have him produce his best year since the mid-naughts or their personalities together will become so combustible that Little Havana will break from the union and form the 51st state with Ozzie becoming Supreme Leader of Little Havana and having Zambrano executed.  My money’s on the latter.  2012 Projections:  11-10/4.10/1.35/130

Johan Santana – The Mets are hoping to get 25 starts out of Johan.  The Mets are saying he’s a question mark for Opening Day.  The Mets pronounce players ready to return usually six months before they’re back on the field and they’re saying bad things already about Johan.  Instead of drafting Johan, if you’re into torturing yourself, try meeting up with random people from Craigslist’s Missed Connections.  Here’s one, “You didn’t tan, your freckles merged.  Now I want our bodies to.  I saw you at the Jiffy Lube on Tuesday.  I can’t wait another 3 months or 3,000 miles.”  2012 Projections:  7-5/3.75/1.22/80 (in 120 innings)