Fantasy Baseball Advice

Fantasy baseball is a fickle beast.  It will lure you in with chocolates and fine smelling perfume.  Then leave you heartbroken, mad as hell and unable to watch regular baseball.  Twelve after 20 is becoming the year of the Aflac for closers.  It is just not safe to be a ninth inning pitcher.   It’s like someone is hunting them down one by one, and systematically destroying everyone’s hopes at accumulating points in saves.  Wait, is that a laser pointer on Huston Street?  Watching guys that I usually opine about in my holds posts finally getting some burn in the limelight.  It is a strong week for streaming low end two start pitchers.  Lots of decent matchup type guys and some  guys that are under the radar who should be rostered in most formats soon.  So enjoy the week to come and have a very wobbly and not very up-right Cinco De Mayo.  Here’s some two start starters for this week in fantasy baseball:  (Please keep in mind that pitchers and matchups change.)

ONE START OPTIONS:

5/9

Anthony Bass @ Col – Moscoso

Ross Detwiler @ Pit – Bedard

Drew Smyly @ Sea – Vargas

5/10

Henderson Alvarez @ Min – Marquis

Derek Lowe @ Bos – Beckett

5/11

Kyle Drabek @ Min – Blackburn

James McDonald vs Hou – Norris

5/12

R.A. Dickey @ Mia – Nolasco

TWO START OPTIONS:

J.A. Happ (Mia vs Zambrano, @Pit vs Morton) After watching him pitch against the Mets, I said to myself, “Self, we should keep an eye on him for future starts.”  For a deeper league with fringe options, the stale fish and the sinking pirate ship seem tantalizing to me.

Bronson Arroyo (@Mil vs Marcum, Was vs Jackson) Because of rain you get him twice this week, ain’t that special?  Likes to use the method of one good/one bad start.   His last one was bad, so there is your heads up.

Josh Tomlin (CHW vs Humber, @Bos vs Doubront) ERA says 5, but the other numbers say something different.  And if numbers talk we have a bigger problem.  Like what else talks to you?  Lunch meat?

Duane Below (@Sea vs Millwood, @Oak vs Parker) I don’t wanna jinx him, but he is unscored upon this year. I bet someone a shiny new quarter that no longer exists by the fourth inning Monday.  Still all things considered, it is Seattle and that is Millwood, so it could be an easy W.

Joe Saunders (STL vs Lynn, SF vs Zito) I don’t know how he is doing it either, so don’t ask.  Luck is the best thing I can think of, LOB rate of 84% and a FIP in the high 2′s makes him look more realistic and not like the boogieman sleeping in my closet.

Marco Estrada (Cin vs Arroyo, CHC vs Volstad) I see his name and the CHiPs theme song jumps in my head. Now that we are on the same page enjoy the classic fade out to that song. Without the Ks, I’d wanna watch TJ Hooker instead.

A.J. Burnett ( Was vs Jackson, Hou vs Happ) A dozen of anything sounds delicious.  Oh… they were earned runs. Yikes.  Anything worth doing, A.J does it.

Barry Zito (@LAD vs Lilly, @Ari vs Saunders) His matchup looks like a retread meeting of guys over 30 who no longer throw hard. 7 walks last start as he was in a hurry to get to the Perfect Strangers reunion show. Big Cousin Larry fan.

Jarrod Parker (Tor vs Romero, Det vs Below) Good job, youngin’,, now go do it again and make yourself completely fantasy useful. While you’re at it, give me your sandwich….I said give me your sandwich!

Jonathan Sanchez (Bos vs Doubront, @CHW vs Danks) Filthy, dirty.  I don’t know what his nickname is anymore, but it should start with “in” and end with “consistent.”  Throws away too many pitches to go deep in a game and, for that reason, he is just poo.

This week offers some slim and very unattractive pickings for low end two start options. Although I guess we should take anything considering the world was supposed to end today. There seems to be a lot of either already owned pitchers or a lot of guys that you may have dropped two or three times going twice this week. So it’s a “pick your fights wisely” week as far as I am concerned. On a side note, has anyone noticed that the hitting this year is atrocious? Yeah, well, if no one raised their hand than you need to go look at some team batting stats league wide. It’s pretty bad. Maybe we reverted back to 1968 and the year of the “new” pitcher is here. Good luck on this week’s fantasy endeavors. (Please keep in mind that pitchers and match-ups change.)

ONE START OPTIONS:

5/24
Doug Fister @ Min – Blackburn
Chris Narveson vs. Was – Hernandez

5/25
Dillon Gee @ CHC – Coleman
Freddy Garcia vs. Tor – Reyes
Luke Hochevar @ Bal – Bergesen

5/26
Doug Davis vs. Nym – Dickey
Joel Pineiro vs. Oak – Anderson

5/27
Jon Garland vs. Fla – Vasquez
Scott Baker vs. Ana – Chatwood

TWO START OPTIONS:

Bartolo Colon ( Tor vs. Litsch, @Sea vs. Vargas) Has the lowest xFIP of any AL pitcher. The thing that boggles the mind is that he has a tiny SwStr% but his K/9 is almost 8.5. The joys of modern Dominican medicine I guess.

Jason Vargas (@Min vs. Pavano, NYY vs. Colon) If he played for a better team, he would be owned universally. Decent K numbers compared to career norms. Allowed 1 ER in last 24 innings.

Jonathon Niese (@CHC vs. Dempster, Phi vs. Blanton) Coming off a strong outing versus the Nats. Seems like he pitches just well enough to win or lose every time out. Is already 0-2 against the Phils on the year.

Danny Duffy (@Bal vs. Britton, @Tex vs. Ogando) Seen a lot of his minor starts via video, and control is going to be his downfall, as we witnessed in first start. Good mix of 3 pitches. Upside for me is a number 3 starter.

Carl Pavano (Sea vs. Vargas, Ana vs. Haren) My Yankee fandom won’t allow me to write anything good about him. Best I can come up with is he allowed only 1 earned run in last two starts…way to go Carl.

Tom Gorzellany (@Mil vs. Gallardo, SD vs. Moseley) Has a .214 batting average against. Seems to be pitching way over his head, and let’s not forget this is Tom Gorzellany. So that wasn’t very high to begin with.

Phil Coke (TB vs. Hellickson, Bos vs. Buchholz) The “Dispenser” gets lit up at home, posting an ERA above a touchdown. TB best hitters struggle against LH pitching, Boston kills mediocre pitching.

Josh Collmenter (@Col vs. De La Rosa, @Hou vs. Norris) More wishful thinking by me than anything else. First start is part of DH, Sunday start is either his or Saunders. 0 ER in 12 innings as SP, I’m kind of intrigued, wanna see what the kids got.

Holy hell was week 1 long… though it’s always good when your ace goes three times in the first week. Hopefully, everyone has remained calm and not added Alex Avila and Willie Bloomquist to anchor anything not named a boat. It’s way too early to get all ‘Jerry McGuire’ and say, “The fish are coming with me.” This fantasy is a relationship — not a one night stand! Assuming that you drafted well and injuries or appendices don’t get in your way, your team should be built to last. To me, there is nothing sweeter than streaming. It makes your opponent think two things, “Hey, this guy is paying attention” and, “Damn, this guy wants to not only beat me but destroy me.” That is what it’s all about folks. Treat every week like you do the last week of the season and I guarantee those last few weeks will actually mean something. So here are your week 2, less owned, two start fantasy baseball hurlers. Good luck. (Pitchers and match ups may change so please be aware)

Kyle McClellan (@Ari-Enright, @LAD Kershaw) – Duncan is the Rumpelstiltskin of pitching. For now, I’m sold and will be until he hits that wall at 120 innings or so.

Joe Blanton (@Was- Lannan, Fla-Volstad) – Mentally it must suck to be known as the other guy.  No respect? No worries!  Thornton Melon’s got your back… Just stop giving up 7 run leads.

Michael Pineda (Tor-Romero, @KC Francis) – Good stuff, bad offense. Any start for a Seattle pitcher will be a crap shoot for a Win. They just don’t have the ‘O’ to go anywhere but last place.

Jason Hammel (@NYM-Pelfrey, CHC-Coleman) – Colorado’s offense versus a chronic hand licker and a guy who sounds like an female Irish bar keep? Yeah, it depends on the bar.

Brian Duensing (KC-Francis, @TB-Price) – Still SP/RP sexy. Rays are scuffling and Price isn’t as good as some ‘perts are sayin’. None here, of course.

Alexei Ogando (@Det-Verlander, @NYY-Burnett) – Rough match up week for the kid. Wait is 27 years old still a kid? Anyhoo, career high in innings is 41, which includes the minors.

Jesse Litsch (@Sea-Hernandez, @Bos-Matsuzaka) – Tough week for the road warrior pick. I went over Seattle above in a nut shell. Boston is the kid who falls asleep drunk and everyone draws on his face. Until he wakes up and kicks everyone’s ass.

Esmil Rogers (@ NYM- Niese, CHC- Dempster) – Gangly is the best word for him. Looks like an 8 foot octopus wearing a baseball hat. Deceptive delivery, plus lack of video equals fantasy gold until they figure him out.

Kevin Correia (Mil-Marcum, @Cin-Volquez) – Olympics, Kim Jong-il land the pitcher.  The three things we know about Korea.  Somewhere, James Taiwan is yearning for attention. Hard to be the ace of a bad team, usually a match up disaster.

Jeff Francis (@Min-Duensing, Sea -Pineda) – Rule of 2’s for shoulder surgery guys.  Hop on the KC bandwagon now… it’ll prolly run out of gas by June.

Well my friends, or enemies, it has come to be again:  Baseball… sorry… fantasy baseball! Is there anything more addictive than fantasy baseball? Twenty plus weeks of stats and trades, adds and drops. Preseason stuff is all well and good… but we want competition amongst our so-called friends.  Week one started early and for those in weekly leagues that can’t use any of this: I’m sorry.  For those who can, start off by asking yourself, “Will this help me?” and “Do I really need to add any of these players?” The answer to both of those questions is subjective: It all depends on league size, team need, and scoring setup.  So use the advice I give with fair warning and don’t just do it ‘cause I made a suggestion because this is only a guide of who pitches twice.  I can only show you the way, but you must walk it. I believe it was Q-Tip who said it best when he said, “If knowledge is the key than just show me the lock.” Well, I’m giving you directions to the lock store.  So, as I embark on my second decade of fantasy baseball (Damn, I’m getting old.  I remember doing this with a pen, a piece of paper and a newspaper.  They don’t even make those things anymore!), here are your week 1 two start starters for fantasy baseball. (Pitching match ups and games may change so keep that in mind.) Good luck!

Dallas Braden (@Tor-Reyes, @Min-Duensing) – Grandma’s ‘lil quilter. My inside voice is telling me he is going to get hurt this year.  My outside voice told me to shut up and get me a beer.  Very lucky last year.  Match up guy most of the year for me. Not too bad to start off the year though.

Erik Bedard (@Tex -Ogando, Cle- Masterson) – Healthy, well currently yes. May need to join Tod Lubitch to stay that way though.

Brian Duensing (@NYY-Garcia, Oak-Braden) – Vanilla is the best way to describe him. You add a good lineup, decent defense behind him, and a splash of dual eligibility and that’s baby making stuff.

Bud Norris (@Cin-Leake, Fla- Sanchez) – Ahh Bud, why do you hurt me? Your K numbers look like a down blouse shot of Brooklyn Decker, and your WHIP makes her look like Bea Arthur. Will be a drop and add guy most of the year.

Chris Young (@Phi-Hamels. Was-Lannan) – Can he be healthy for longer than an episode of Robot Chicken? Spring numbers look great, but so what? He is healthy now, so use him while he is, ‘cause you can’t when he isn’t, duh.

Aaron Harang (SF-Bumgarner, LAD-Redding) – Harangatang in the SD zoo… awesome!  2 starts at the Pet’, yes and thanks.

Jason Hammel (LA-Kershaw, @Pit-McDonald) – Could be sneaky this year. Pitched way better and without the luck. Check the numbers, I’ll wait.  How can you not like a guy with a name so close to a tchotchke?

Mike Leake (Hou-Norris, @Ari-Enright) – He got tired by June 1st last year. 2 great starts vs. what looks on paper to be bad teams.  Good start could lead to better things…

Jo-Jo Reyes (Oak-Braden, @Ana-Kazmir) – The least owned name on this week’s list. Play anyone vs. Kazmir, he is hot garbage. Run support, check.  Named after a clown, check.  That, right there, is like the fantasy daily double!

James McDonald (@STL-McClellan, Col-Hammel) – Can he be the first fantasy relevant starting pitcher in Pittsburgh since Ollie Perez in ’04? Possibly. This is an upstart team with a baseball savvy manager. Double digit wins and 170 k’s are not out of the question. Or that’s what I said right before I threw a penny into the fountain.

Jason Marquis (@Fla-Sanchez, @Nym-Capuano) – Doing “Hawk and Animal” proud this week. Missed half of last year due to injury… Yeah, no one noticed. Pitched OK to end last year, don’t expect much on the year but 2 decent match-ups help for the first week of streaming season.

Interleague is over and we are sprinting to the All-Star break, trade deadline and fantasy football drafts because, who are we kidding, the best part of fantasy is the draft. Soccer is still well on Smokey’s plate. As if you’re not watching and getting excited. It’s not for everyone, I can’t blame people for not liking it or force them to watch. There just aren’t enough stats in soccer to peak the fantasy end of it. Baseball has 20 x 20 leagues, what’s more entertaining than playing in a league that you can’t check via the box score in newspaper? (Yeah, they still exist, I had to check.) Week 13 brings us right up against the birth of this great country. Have at the unlucky week 13 fantasy baseball two start hurlers:

Jake Westbrook (Tor vs. Romero) (Oak vs. Gonzalez)
Just mulling around waiting/hoping to get traded. Been semi-effective. A peripheral nightmare, so expect to be wooed and then not even a peck on the cheek when you drop him off.

Jeremy Bonderman (@Min vs. Liriano) (Sea vs. Lee)
This guy gets $12 million, holy hell. Always a good swing and miss guy. Horrible matchups this week. Avoid for me this week.

Randy Wells (Pit vs. Maholm) (Cin Vs Cueto)
Not good Randy, not good at all. Anything worse than playing for your hometown team and sucking?  Guess missing your bus home would suck too. But then if it’s your hometown team it wouldn’t suck as bad, I suppose.  Gets Pittsburgh in first start – hooray. Another peripheral disaster.

Jason Hammel (@ SD vs. LeBlanc) (SF vs. Cain)
In the highlights as the guy following Ubaldo in the rotation. Gets Petco and is a better pitcher at home so it sounds even better. Previous shellacking by the Sox. Three previous were 0 ER. Good value pick.

Bud Norris (@ Mil vs. Parra) (@ SD vs. Correia)
Back from the dead. 2 decent matchups, and a whole mess of sleeper hype to cloud what could go wrong. Houston continues to suck and blow his confidence. He is a ping pong ball up and down like Homer Bailey.

Brett Myers (@ MiL VS Gallardo) (@ SD vs. Leblanc)
A horse this year so far. Would have about 5 more wins for another team. Lowest ERA since ’06. Gets a tough matchup in Gallardo, who is as legit as they come. Hasn’t given up more than 4 ER in a start all year.

R.A. Dickey (@ Fla vs. Nolasco) (@ Was vs. Strasburg)
Yeah, uh, R.A. Dickey has 6 wins. 6 consecutive to boot. Runs into some tough matchups. Robert Alan is hot right now so ride the train, just maybe not this week.

Manny Parra (Hou vs. Norris) (@ StL vs. Carpenter)
Think he is staying in the rotation for a while, and is great stuff wise. Just not polished at all. Great K potential, though I hate that word.

Kyle Kendrick (@ Cin vs. Cueto) (@ Pit vs. Maholm)
His home/away splits are crazy, Bruce Banner even said damn. Gets the Pie Rats and is 3-0 career vs. the ‘Natti. Looks like a call to the bookie is in order. Jump all over it, best low end add this week. 2 wins and 10 k’s.

Wade LeBlanc (Col vs. Hammel) (Hou vs. Myers)
Home cooking just like Grandma’s. Gives up way too many hits for my liking. Two home starts makes me forget that he didn’t call me on my birthday. No K’s and a propensity to go only 5 innings sucks out loud.

Dustin Nippert/Matt Harrison (@ LAA vs. Pineiro) (ChW vs. Buehrle)
It is still up in the air if both get one or 2 starts. Team is scorching the ball right now, and runs and pills are good. Both guys offer about the same amount fantasy-wise.