In my last post two weeks back, we broke down six preseason collegiate risers for the 2024 MLB Draft. That list included prospects who are firmly in the discussion for the first round or two of this July’s draft but were not initially included in my way-too-early rankings back in late August. That list included LHP Josh Hartle of Wake Forest, but in fact, all three members of the Demon Deacon weekend rotation are top-35 draft prospects per MLB Pipeline: Hartle (No. 13), RHP Chase Burns (No. 16) and RHP Michael Massey (No. 31). This leaves us with a series of questions. What exactly is a Demon Deacon? Why does the Wake Forest mascot have buttcheeks for a chin? Why does he ride a motorcycle? Isn’t the term “Demon Deacon” an oxymoron? Am I a moron? And how does a rising albeit non-blue blood program like Wake Forest come to possess three weekend starters all with the potential to go in the first round?
Well, to tell that story one must tell three very different tales. You see, these three pitchers all started their collegiate careers in 2022 at different schools. Hartle began at Wake Forest and has remained there. Burns pitched two seasons at Tennessee and transferred in this offseason. And Massey pitched at Tulane in 2022 and at Wake Forest in 2023. They’re all different pitchers from different states, who started college at different places, and thus it is essential to understand each of these quality hurlers for who they are, and what they might provide to the fantasy baseball realm one day.
LHP Josh Hartle
Since Hartle is ranked the highest of the trio and I just broke him down earlier this month, we’ll start with him. With a real chance to be the first college pitcher off the board, here’s what I wrote about him two weeks ago:
Although he pitched to a 5.30 ERA and 7.0 K.9 in 69 2/3 freshman frames in 2022, he was a completely different guy last year and fall reports have been positive. Last season, he went 11-2 with a 2.81 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 12.3 K/9, and 2.1 BB/9 in 102 1/3 innings – 18 appearances (17 starts). Yipee skipee, me likey! Hartle isn’t a flamethrower, working 89-94 with a lively heater that pairs with a plus-slider in the low 80s, plus-cutter, and fringey changeup. Brody Brecht is still my top-ranked pitcher in this draft class, but expect Hartle to be gone in the first 20 selections as well.
On top of that, Hartle is a 60-grade control guy with sufficient command of four offerings. The slider is his best secondary offering, but the cutter is still 55-grade and the changeup has flashed signs of brilliance. As a southpaw, all Hartle needs to do is show incremental gains with his four-seam fastball and we could be talking about a No. 2 starter with No. 1 upside. Standing at six-foot-five and 200 pounds, MLB brass should be salivating over the potential. If there are any concerns, Hartle did throw a whopping 102 1.3 innings last year and scuffled through his last five starts, allowing 15 earned runs in 27 frames.
MLB Scouting Comp: Steven Matz
Best 1-2 punch in the nation ? pic.twitter.com/OiUmQTiudp
— Wake Forest Baseball (@WakeBaseball) January 27, 2024
RHP Chase Burns
Due to Burns’ pure arsenal including a 60-grade fastball that touches triple digits with ease, there’s as good of a chance Burns goes first of this trio as there is Hartle. The right-hander got moved to the bullpen due to some midseason struggles as a starter in 2023, but his high-octane stuff played even better at the back end. After making the move, Burns pitched to a 2.01 ERA, 13.3 K/9 and 2.4 BB/9. It’s important to point that out, as he allowed five earned runs or more in four-straight starts from March 19 through April 7 during his stint as a starter, which ballooned his season ERA to 4.25 (albeit with a 14.3 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9).
As a true freshman starter in 2022, Burns was brilliant: 8-2, 80.1 IP, 2.91 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 11.5 K/9, 2.8 BB/9. If he can regain his form as a starter in Winston-Salem, he will be a top 10 and maybe even a top-five pick in the draft. Whether or not he is capable of that will be the primary component to monitor this spring, but early reports have been positive, to say the least.
MLB Scouting Comp: Jordan Hicks
Rockies have pick no.3 in July and Chase Burns of Wake Forest could be their guy.
In his second start of the year today, Burns dominated Illinois:
6 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 10 K, 0 BBHe has 20 K in 10 IP (0 R) for the Demon Deacons so far.
?: @jnorris427 pic.twitter.com/5MxFwEa1ND— Patrick Lyons (@PatrickDLyons) February 10, 2024
To correct the post above, Burns’ performance was actually in an intrasquad game as the Division I season does not begin until Friday, Feb. 16. But when you’re pitching against the unanimous preseason No. 1 team in the country, it’s worth taking note of.
To close the book on Burns, his true bread and butter is the fastball-slider combo. Although the heater can reach 102, it could use some added life as he transitions to the Saturday starter’s role. The slider is his best all-around pitch, graded out at 70 and operating as a hard, progressive offspeed in the upper 80s. Much of Burns’ success as a starter may depend on his abaility to deploy the changeup, which he didn’t use as much as a closer and is more of an average pitch.
RHP Michael Massey
With the two rounds above firmly in the first-round conversation, Massey’s 2024 performance will dictate if he falls into the second round or not. Although no pitcher is quite like Burns, he and Massey are similar in many ways. They both have a devastating fastball, with Massey’s sitting 93-97 but playing up due to its high spin rate and life up in the zone. He pairs that with a plus slider as well, although it’s softer than Burns’ and plays into the low-to-mid 80s. Massey also has a fringey changeup, but we haven’t seen it much since his freshman year at Tulane.
Michael Massey (‘24, Elig) his usual electric self out of the pen tonight, the @WakeBaseball arm is physically imposing and backs it up with stuff…FB 93-97 with plenty of ride and SL 82-84 with late, tight tilt #CNT pic.twitter.com/eCFTmcz1lK
— PG College Baseball (@PGCollegeBall) June 28, 2023
And that’s because Massey was the ace reliever for Wake Forest last season. He was outstanding in that role, going 3-1 with a 2.59 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 16.4 K/9, and 3.5 BB/9 in 41 2/3 innings. Similarly to Burns, how will he hold up and perform as a starter in 2024? Back in 2022 at Tulane, Massey struggled but was an entirely different pitcher: 3-4, 68.0 IP, 5.03 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 6.9 K/9, 3.5 BB/9. Yuck. But even with those numbers, Massey had enough stuff to get noticed by the Wake Forest staff and was brought in to pitch out of the bullpen as a sophomore. With the help of the well-documented Wake Forest Baseball Pitching Lab, he gained velo on his fastball and learned to tunnel his slider off the heater. The result was a lockdown reliever for one of the best teams in the nation. But after throwing just over 41 innings last year, can he do enough as a starter to vault himself into the first round with Hartle and Burns?
MLB Scouting Comp: Chris Tillman
All three of these hurlers should be on the first-year player draft radar for dynasty fantasy baseball. Where exactly this trio ranks in your final cheat sheet is yet to be determined, but as of today, I have them ranked Burns-Hartle-Massey. Tune in for the 2024 college baseball season to see how it all plays out. Tomorrow is Opening Day across the nation and the action is just getting started.
That’s all for this week, Razzball fam! As always, I’m happy to take this conversation into the comments section or on Twitter, where you can find me @WorldOfHobbs.
