When it comes to playing in a dynasty league, the difference between winning and losing is knowing which under-the-radar players to add to your team – either now before the season or once the season is underway. It’s easy to know you should have Ronald Acuna or Julio Rodriguez in your lineup or go after Gerrit Cole or Spencer Strider when putting your staff together.
But for you to win, you have to know who the Up-and-Coming Dynasty Players are. They aren’t the stars everyone wants, but they are often the players who are the difference between winning that title and finishing out of the playoffs altogether.
So welcome to the first week of the 2024 Up-and-Coming Dynasty Players. Throughout the year I’ll feature a player (or two) each week who I think is going to be solid dynasty player, whether that is right away or starting next season.
Well, I think we have had enough of the small talk. Let’s dive into the player I want to focus on this week – Kutter Crawford of the Boston Red Sox.
CAREER STATS
| YEAR | W-L | G-GS | IP | H | BB | K | K/BB | ERA | WHIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 0-1 | 1-1 | 2.0 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1.00 | 22.50 | 3.50 |
| 2022 | 3-6 | 21-12 | 77.1 | 81 | 29 | 77 | 2.66 | 5.47 | 1.42 |
| 2023 | 6-8 | 31-23 | 129.1 | 107 | 36 | 135 | 3.75 | 4.04 | 1.11 |
| CAREER | 9-15 | 53-36 | 208.2 | 193 | 67 | 214 | 3.19 | 4.47 | 1.25 |
Kutter Crawford has never been considered a top prospect. Drafted in the 16th round of the 2017 amateur draft, Crawford has slowly progressed through the Boston System, spending six seasons in the minors before getting a cup of coffee with the Sox in 2021 by making one start.
While down on the farm, Kutter Crawford didn’t dominate enroute to making his way to The Show. In 70 starts and 74 total appearances, he had a 4.11 ERA and 1.28 WHIP. Crawford did a good job of limiting hits, however, allowing only 8.5/9 innings. But on the flip side, he did struggle a bit with walks, issuing 3.0/9. Additionally, Crawford is no spring chicken as he turns 28 on April 1. But over the last two seasons with Boston, he has shown he can be a dependable fantasy starter.
The Improvement
It is easy to see the improvement Crawford made from 2022 to 2023. His ERA dropped 1.43 points and he shaved .31 points off his WHIP. That drop can be attributed to a huge drop in his walk rate. In 2022 he issued 3.4 BB/9. Last season that fell to 2.5 BB/9. And while he was reducing his walk rate, Crawford increased his strikeout rate from 9.0/9 to 9.4/9. Crawford’s FIP was 4.34 in 2022 and 3.83 last season.
In short, he was just a better pitcher last year as he settled into the majors.
For the first two months of the 2023 season, he bounced between the pen and the starting rotation. But on June 11 he returned to the rotation and stayed there the rest of the year.
The average MLB pitcher last year had a 4.33 ERA and 1.32 WHIP with a 3.3 BB/9 rate and 8.7 K/9 rate. Over his last 21 starts, Crawford had a 4.20 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 2.70 BB/9 rate, and a 3.64 FIP. He held opponents to a .226/.292/.387 slash line with a 9.6 K/9 rate. And over the final month of the season, Crawford pitched like an ace.
In September he had a 3.86 ERA and 0.97 WHIP with an 11.6 K/9 rate, fanning 33 hitters in 25.2 innings. Opposing hitters managed a meager slash line of .163/.245/.326.
But Wait, There’s More!
As you can see from the graphic above, there are a lot of nice red numbers when it comes to Kutter Crawford. His xERA and xBA ranked in the 87th and 88th percentile.
So, what’s the secret to Crawford’s success? A six-pitch mix as last season he introduced the newest favorite pitch in MLB – the sweeper. Crawford threw a four-seamer, cutter, curve, split finger, and slider in 2022 and then added the sweeper last year to great success.
While he does not have an overpowering fastball, his spin rate is in the 95th percentile, leading batters have a high chase rate against his high fastball and limited success as they had a .164 average against the fastball with a .327 slugging percentage. The reason for his success with his fastball is the fact he gets 12.4 inches of drop (2.8 inches more than the average 4-seamer) and 9.5 inches of break, or 2.4 inches more than average.
Against the split finger, sweeper, and slider, opposing hitters hit .209, .125, and .195 against those three pitches, respectively. When you look deeper into Crawford’s numbers, there is a lot to like, with the majority of them being an improvement from 2022.
In 2023, Crawford had a 66.3 strike percentage (MLB average is 64%) and his swinging strike percentage was 21.2, two points better than the MLB average. His first pitch strike percentage of 62.8 was 1.8 points better than average.
It’s Early, But…
While it is only spring training, Kutter Crawford is looking solid in Grapefruit League action. In five innings of work overall, he has struck out five and not issued a walk. And he has added some oomph to his fastball as he hit 97 mph the other day during his outing against the Blue Jays and allowed two hits with four strikeouts in three innings of work.
Crawford worked on adding strength to his lower half this offseason in order to pitch deeper into games this season. Last year he only pitched a total of 14.2 innings in the seventh inning or later. When he reached the seventh inning and beyond, it was because he was having success that night as he had a 1.84 ERA.
Generally, however, when going through a batting order for the third time overall, Crawford struggled. The first time through the order batters slashed .211/.271/.321 and the second time through the slash line increased to .233/.300/.419. But the third time through the order was not kind to Crawford as opposing hitters had a .356/.408/.733 slash line.
My View
When it comes to Crawford, I don’t think he is going to suddenly become a No. 1 or No. 2 pitcher. He needs to increase his quality start percentage, especially if your league uses that stat. One of the reasons for the low QS percentage, however, is the fact Boston didn’t let him pitch deep into games as he averaged 77 pitches per start.
If you keep your expectations of Crawford in check and understand that he is going to be a solid third or fourth starter, then he is not going to disappoint you. And unless you have somehow accumulated a staff of aces, then you are going to need a solid third/fourth starter or two on your dynasty staff.
