Mother Nature can suck a fat one. Our first excursion into the double dip starters was largely foiled by weather, an issue that has loomed large since the start of the season. There have been 25 postponements already as of this writing, the most in April in over 10 years. So, there is no better time than now to remind you to keep an eye on such things late into Sunday, assuming that’s when you’re putting in your two-start claims. Enough with the garbage weather. Let’s play some ball!
This week’s list is a lot ickier than the last. Tier 1 and 2 are pretty thin, while Tier 5 is thick with the grease of back-end starters. So greezy. Carson Fulmer and Miguel Gonzalez both have plus matchups with Seattle and Kansas City, but man…those guys are bad. Between the two of them they have 15 BB and 14 K over 23 IP. You have to really hate yourself to start either one. I’d rather have Halfthor Bjornsson throw a bowling ball at my genitals than start both of them in the same league. By the way, I am switching things up a bit this week. Rather than just list the actual wOBA of the opponent, I thought it would be more beneficial to list the opponent’s MLB rank to give you a bit more context. I’ve also included the opponent’s K% vs that starter’s handedness to give you the idea of what sort of strikeout potential you can expect.
| Tier 1 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Opp #1 | Rank vs L/R | Opp K% | Opp #2 | Rank vs L/R | Opp K% |
| Gerrit Cole | LAA | 4 | 17.6 | OAK | 2 | 22.8 |
| Carlos Carrasco | @BAL | 27 | 28.3 | SEA | 21 | 23 |
| Jose Berrios | @NYY | 7 | 22.6 | CIN | 28 | 24.7 |
| Robbie Ray (L) | @PHI | 4 | 18.6 | @WSH | 24 | 15.5 |
| Alex Wood (L) | MIA | 22 | 19.1 | @SF | 28 | 25.5 |
- Alex Wood (Tier 1) – After a worrying early-season dip in velocity, Wood’s fastball is back up over 90 MPH. I was selling him as recently as a week ago, but he was effective in a brief start against the Padres his last time out. With the velo bouncing back and some great matchups this week, I’m all in (this week). He gets Miami at home and then heads to AT&T to take on the Giants, who offer strikeout upside to boot.
| Tier 2 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Opp #1 | Rank vs L/R | Opp K% | Opp #2 | Rank vs L/R | Opp K% |
| Rick Porcello | @TOR | 5 | 25.5 | TB | 23 | 22 |
| Masahiro Tanaka | MIN | 16 | 24 | @LAA | 4 | 17.6 |
| Jacob Faria | @BAL | 27 | 28.3 | @BOS | 1 | 15.9 |
| Gio Gonzalez (L) | @SF | 28 | 25.5 | ARI | 9 | 25.4 |
| Tier 3 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Opp #1 | Rank vs L/R | Opp K% | Opp #2 | Rank vs L/R | Opp K% |
| JA Happ (L) | BOS | 17 | 18.1 | TEX | 25 | 23.4 |
| Trevor Cahill | @TEX | 19 | 25 | @HOU | 18 | 23.9 |
| Kevin Gausman | CLE | 25 | 23.5 | DET | 13 | 18.9 |
| Vince Velasquez | ARI | 17 | 25.4 | ATL | 6 | 19 |
| Brandon McCarthy | @CIN | 28 | 24.7 | @PHI | 20 | 28 |
| Matt Wisler | @CIN | 28 | 24.7 | @PHI | 20 | 28 |
| Steven Matz (L) | @STL | 23 | 27.2 | @SD | 16 | 25.1 |
- JA Happ (Tier 3) – Happ has a ridonkulous 31:7 K:BB ratio through four starts. He’s also home against Boston and Texas this week, both solid matchups for lefties. So why is he in Tier 3 and not higher? Well, he hasn’t really changed. His pitch mix and velocity are essentially unchanged from a year ago, and his hard contact is just mediocre at 32%. He’s been able to take advantage of bad teams, including the Orioles and White Sox, who each have top-3 strikeout rates against left-handed pitching. Continue to expect middling results from Happ and sell high if you can.
- Brandon McCarthy & Matt Wisler (Tier 3) – Here we have a duo of Braves pitchers with positive matchups for Week 4. Wisler held a tough Mets offense to two hits over seven innings with eight K’s and no walks in his season debut, earning himself a longer look in the rotation. I don’t know how much I trust him long-term with just a FB/SL mix, but I’d use him in most formats this week. McCarthy is a stably unstable option…meaning he’s a usable and relatively consistent pitcher when he’s healthy, but he can go down with an injury at any moment and miss a month of action. Give him a look this week and hope he can stay on the mound. Heck, a suddenly potent Braves offense might even get you some wins.
| Tier 4 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Opp #1 | Rank vs L/R | Opp K% | Opp #2 | Rank vs L/R | Opp K% |
| Tyler Skaggs (L) | @HOU | 6 | 25.4 | NYY | 3 | 19.7 |
| CC Sabathia (L) | MIN | 18 | 29.9 | @LAA | 14 | 18.7 |
| Zach Davies | @KC | 26 | 17.6 | @CHC | 8 | 22.2 |
| Matt Boyd (L) | @PIT | 1 | 18 | @BAL | 8 | 28.3 |
| Marco Gonzalez (L) | @CHW | 13 | 30.2 | @CLE | 27 | 17.6 |
| Chad Bettis | SD | 22 | 27.9 | @MIA | 29 | 24.6 |
| Chad Kuhl | DET | 13 | 18.9 | STL | 10 | 23.7 |
| Ian Kennedy | MIL | 14 | 25.5 | CHW | 12 | 24.8 |
| Jake Odorizzi | @NYY | 7 | 22.6 | CIN | 28 | 24.7 |
- Matt Boyd (Tier 4) – Boyd is just 0-1 despite a 1.40 ERA over his first 19.1 IP (3 GS). Unfortunately, those numbers are far more reactive than predictive. He has a mere 11 K’s over those 19.1 IP and has been helped along by a .132 BABIP and 98.2% strand rate. His velocity is also down a staggering 3.3 MPH from last year, so he’s using his slider 16% more to offset that. So far it’s treated him well, but the upside here is limited and the blow up potential with a pair of tough matchups is real.
| Tier 5 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Opp #1 | Rank vs L/R | Opp K% | Opp #2 | Rank vs L/R | Opp K% |
| Mike Leake | @CHW | 12 | 24.8 | @CLE | 25 | 23.5 |
| Tyler Mahle | ATL | 6 | 19 | @MIN | 16 | 24 |
| Sal Romano | ATL | 6 | 19 | @MIN | 16 | 24 |
| Alex Cobb | TB | 23 | 22 | DET | 13 | 18.9 |
| Tyler Chatwood | @CLE | 25 | 23.5 | MIL | 14 | 25.5 |
| Josh Tomlin | CHC | 8 | 22.2 | SEA | 21 | 23 |
| Chris Stratton | WSH | 9 | 20.4 | LAD | 11 | 19.4 |
| Matt Moore (L) | OAK | 11 | 23.2 | @TOR | 15 | 22.7 |
| Adam Wainwright | NYM | 3 | 22.1 | @PIT | 15 | 19.1 |
| Bryan Mitchell | @COL | 30 | 23.1 | NYM | 3 | 22.1 |
| Carson Fulmer | SEA | 21 | 23 | @KC | 26 | 17.6 |
| Miguel Gonzalez | SEA | 21 | 23 | @KC | 26 | 17.6 |
- Chris Stratton (Tier 5) – It’s probably unfair for me to toss Stratton down into the murky depths of Tier 5, but he’s got some real stinky matchups this week. Neither the Nationals nor Dodgers offer much strikeout upside (especially considering Stratton’s uninspiring 8.8% SwStr% and 20.7 K%), and each rank in the top 11 in terms of wOBA against right-handed pitching. He’s also getting lit up when opposing bats make contact, yielding a 37% hard contact rate. He’s a decent back-end option in deeper leagues ROS, but he’s hard to trust this week.
All starters are projected for two starts as of Friday evening.
You can find Dokken on Twitter @NathanDokken.
