Hello everyone, welcome back to another edition of Top Fantasy Keepers. As we head into the All-Star break, I want to focus on one All-Star who will be making his first appearance in the game but certainly not his last. That player is rookie Julio Rodriguez of the Seattle Mariners.
Rodriguez is the lone rookie All-Star this year, making the roster at the age of 21 – and he won’t turn 22 until December 29! The last Mariners rookie to make the All-Star game was Ichiro Suzuki in 2001, putting Rodriguez into some pretty great company.
Not a Surprise
The fact that Rodriguez is an All-Star shouldn’t be a huge surprise. He was one of the top prospects during the 2017-18 international signing period and eventually signed with Seattle for $1.75 million. In 59 games in the Dominican Summer league that year, he had an OPS of .929. The next year, at the age of 18, he slashed .326/.390/.540 with 12 homers and 69 RBI in 84 games across A and High A ball.
COVID wiped out the 2020 season for minor leaguers, but he put up great numbers again in 2021 at High-A and Double-A, slashing .347/.444/.560 with 13 homers, 47 RBI and 21 steals. The only thing that slowed Rodriguez down while in the minors was a left hand fracture in 2019 and then a broken wrist during Seattle’s summer camp in 2020.
The Mariners have been aggressive in pushing Rodriguez through the system, and after proving he could handle minor league pitchers, Rodriguez earned a spot on the Opening Day roster.
Not everything has been smooth sailing for the rookie. However, as the season has progressed, so too has his production.
| MONTH | G | HR | RBI | SB | BB | SO | AVG | OBP | SLG |
| April | 20 | 0 | 6 | 9 | 7 | 30 | .206 | .284 | .260 |
| May | 28 | 6 | 17 | 5 | 5 | 29 | .309 | .339 | .527 |
| June | 29 | 7 | 16 | 5 | 10 | 31 | .280 | .361 | .542 |
| July | 13 | 3 | 11 | 2 | 4 | 11 | .269 | .333 | .519 |
| TOTAL | 89 | 16 | 50 | 21 | 25 | 100 | .272 | .333 | .474 |
The first month of the season did not go well for Rodriguez as he looked overmatched at the plate against major league pitching. This was his month of April:
- .206/.284/.260 slash line
- 0 homers
- Six RBI
- 37% strikeout rate, thanks to swinging at a host of breaking pitches like this out of the zone
The Turnaround
Rodriguez was glad to see April come and go, and he certainly didn’t dwell on his poor month. As bad as April was for Rodriguez, May was the complete opposite. There is a very simple explanation for the improvement at the plate. Remember that 37% strikeout rate in April. Rodriguez stopped swinging at everything thrown his way and cut his strikeout rate to 25.2% in May. He maintained that rate in June, posting a 24.4% rate, and it is even better this month at 19.3%.
Thanks to making more contact at the plate, his June slash line was outstanding at .309/.339/.527. And after not slugging a single homer the first month, he smashed six over the fence in May, drove in 17 runs and swiped five bases. He followed that with seven homers and 16 RBI in June with another five steals.
Hitting the Ball Hard
Look at the chart above. When you do, you will see a lot of red. Rodriguez hits the ball hard and hits it hard often. The average major leaguer has a home run percentage of 2.9% with a hard hit percentage of 38.8%. Rodriguez has a home run percentage of 4.3% and hard hit percentage of 51.1%
But there is also a lot of blue on that chart. While he is improving his strikeout rate, he is still near the bottom of the league in strikeout percentage, whiff percentage and chase rate.
Did I Mention His Speed?
Look at the spray chart above. Not only do you see a lot of red dots showing his home runs, but there are a lot of orange dots all over the infield. Rodriguez will likely avoid long slumps because he also has great speed. His sprint speed ranks in the 97th percentile, leading to a ton of infield hits.
And while many players have good to great speed, that doesn’t always translate on the bases. Rodriguez, however, is a great base stealer as well. So far this season he was 21 steals and has only been caught four times. Over 162 games, that would be 38 steals with only seven times being thrown out for a 84% success rate.
The Verdict
When it comes to Julio Rodriguez, this is one of the easiest verdicts to make – he is a 100 percent Top Fantasy Keeper. Yes, he strikes out too much and doesn’t walk a lot. But even his strikeout rate and walk rate never get any better than what they are now, who cares?
Rodriguez is a 30-30, possibly 40-40 player. Those don’t come around very often. As he gets older and fills out a little more, his stolen bases may take a dip, but he will likely also hit more home runs thanks to less wear and tear on his body.
If you have Julio Rodriguez on your team, congratulations. If you can somehow trade for him, do it. And if you are offered a trade for Julio Rodriguez, it better be an offer that you just can’t refuse because this is a player who will anchor keeper teams for years.
